Italy’s World Cup Gamble: Bergamo Hosts Make-or-Break Playoff Against Northern Ireland

The 2026 World Cup is going to be groundbreaking and we just can’t wait! For the first time, the tournament will be hosted across three countries — the United States, Canada, Mexico — and will accommodate 48 teams. It’s a bold new era for the game, full of fresh opportunities, but for traditional giants like Italy, it also comes with enormous pressure.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: Italy still isn’t qualified!

After missing out on the 2018 and 2022 editions, the four-time champions find themselves back in the all-too-familiar danger zone. Once again, their fate runs through the playoffs. On March 26, the Azzurri will host Northern Ireland in a do-or-die semifinal at Bergamo’s New Balance Stadium — a match that could define an entire generation of Italian football.

The New Format

The new 48-team format completely reshapes the tournament. Twelve groups of four will replace the old structure, with the top two from each group advancing alongside the eight best third-placed sides. That means a brand-new Round of 32, the biggest shake-up to the World Cup in decades.

There will be 104 matches in total, up from 64, and teams reaching the final will now play eight games instead of seven. What this means for fans is that there are now more games to enjoy but the new additions can be difficult to understand. Fortunately,2026 Soccer World Cup betting guide and odds offer comprehensive analysis of playoff scenarios, helping fans understand the complex qualification mathematics and potential outcomes.

March 2026: Italy’s Final Test

For sixteen European teams, the UEFA playoffs are the last chance to punch a ticket to North America. They’re split into four paths, each offering just one place at the World Cup. Italy find themselves in Path A, drawn with Northern Ireland, Wales, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Gattuso’s side will host Northern Ireland in Bergamo, a stadium chosen deliberately for its tight, hostile atmosphere. The Azzurri thrashed Estonia 5-0 there in September, and the hope is that the crowd — close to the pitch and loud from the first whistle — can once again tilt the balance. Win, and Italy will travel away for the final on March 31 against either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Italy’s Qualifying Disaster

This playoff run is nothing short of a failure for a nation of Italy’s stature. Automatic qualification slipped away after Norway stormed Group I, sealing first place with a perfect record.

Italy may be ranked 12th in the world, far above Northern Ireland who’re in 69, but history offers a warning: Northern Ireland famously beat Italy 1-0 in 1958 — a result that still echoes whenever these sides meet.

Italy’s Redemption Opportunity

Failing to qualify for a third consecutive World Cup would be the biggest disaster for Italy, and it wouldn’t matter that they have won it four times already.

But the playoff path offers a shot at redemption. Bergamo will be rocking. Northern Ireland will arrive with nothing to lose. And Italy must finally prove they can turn pressure into performance. But if it goes wrong, it could deepen the darkest chapter Italian football has known in decades.

One match. One stadium. One last chance to return to football’s biggest stage. Would they capture it? Or just let it slip?