Ranking Rutgers Football Games By Tiers of Difficulty

With the 2026 Rutgers football schedule out, it is time to start looking ahead to what the season may look like. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, especially on the defensive side of the ball, the schedule matters as much as the roster. The Scarlet Knights will face the entire spectrum of opponents, from the worst team in the FBS and an FCS opponent to the national champions, and as always, the results will vary widely.

Guaranteed Wins

Although no opponent should be completely overlooked, two opponents stand out as winnable games. Rutgers faced a real scare on opening day against Ohio last season, but this year, they will take on UMass, which went 0-12 last season and lost to a very mediocre FCS team in Bryant. The Minutemen visiting Piscataway will see the return of Joe Harasymiak to SHI Stadium, but that will likely be the highlight of their visit, as fans will get to enjoy a nice victory under the lights in the annual Thursday evening welcome to football season.

The Howard game comes at a convenient time for Rutgers, with the Bison coming to town between the conference opener vs USC and the date with the national champions. Howard challenged Rutgers in the first half of the 2024 opener, and although the Knights won 44-7, they might be a more difficult challenge than UMass. However, Rutgers should be able to rest starters, test their depth, and get physically and mentally ready for the game against Indiana the following week.

Should Be Wins- Not Guaranteed

This is where things begin to get interesting. The first road game against Boston College is the greatest nonconference challenge, but it comes against a team that went 2-10 last season. Dylan Lonergan may or may not go against his former team, but the biggest reason this game is no sure guarantee is the environment, as the Red Bandana Game. The Eagles’ home opener, coming on a night with historical significance, should make for a stirred atmosphere, but this will be a test for the Scarlet Knights to handle business in a tough environment.

Maryland has been trending downward under Mike Locksley after a few strong seasons when they dominated Rutgers and pushed teams ahead of their weight class with Taulia Tagovailoa. As of late, however, the Scarlet Knights are winners of two straight, and will look to make it three over the Terrapins. Although Malik Washington will return at quarterback, it remains to be seen how UMD will turn things around in 2026. This will likely be the most winnable road conference game in a slate where every Big Ten win will count.

Michigan State is another team Rutgers has had a favorable history against, with the Knights making a miraculous comeback in the rain in 2022 before dominating the Spartans in snow in East Lansing in 2023. With Aidan Chiles transferring to Northwestern, the Spartans have to replace him and have a long way to go before challenging in the Big Ten.

If there is one winnable home date in Big Ten play for Rutgers, it is this one, and it has become the Scarlet Knights’ trend to take advantage of games like this despite the frustrations surrounding beating teams a level higher. Look for Rutgers to take care of Boston College, Maryland, and MSU to create a foundation of five wins to build their bowl bid.

Games That Feel Like Toss-ups

Moving into the next tier, these are the games that could make or break the season, similar to the Iowa-Minnesota-Washington stretch that Rutgers went 0-3 in last year.

Wisconsin is always a team the Knights have struggled against, with Rutgers having a 0-6 record against the Badgers. However, they are coming off a 4-8 season and will likely still be down coming off that game. Yet the game is at Camp Randall, which is a tough environment, and Wisconsin faces a much easier schedule while welcoming dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph to the program.

Northwestern could be the most interesting game on the schedule. Rutgers beat the Wildcats 24-7 to open the 2023 season, but Northwestern finished 8-5 with a bowl win over Utah. Despite a down 2024, the ‘Cats went 7-6 with a dominant bowl win over Central Michigan, while springing a massive upset over Penn State and nearly taking down Michigan as well.

Rutgers will be making the trip to the renovated Ryan Field for the first time, but to me, the biggest question is whether the Scarlet Knights are better than Northwestern despite the Wildcats having better records in two of the three past seasons. My gut feeling is that they can do enough to get a gritty road victory in Chicago.

Finally, another opponent that Rutgers will look to get off the schneid against in Big Ten play is Nebraska, which will return to SHI Stadium for the first time since 2022. Rutgers narrowly fell 14-13 in the blackout game Friday night that year before suffering its first loss of the 2024 season in Lincoln.

This year, the Cornhuskers will be without Dylan Raiola, so it will be interesting to see where Nebraska shapes up in the Big Ten. Despite the Huskers not being overly impressive either, this game feels like Rutgers’s best chance to get an Iowa-esque win at home that would signal that the program is ready to punch above its weight class. If they can get these three wins, Rutgers fans would feel like this was a great season.

Would Take a Big Upset

Now we move into the games where Rutgers is expected to be a big underdog in. This will begin with USC making the cross-country trip to open Big Ten play for both programs. The Trojans finished the season ranked #16 nationally and were among the better teams in the Big Ten, with their regular-season losses coming against Notre Dame, Oregon, and narrowly at Illinois. Jayden Maiava will return for USC under center, and the Trojans’ passing attack and offense should be as high-flying as ever, while the defense has improved as well.

The most daunting task on the 2026 schedule is obviously Indiana. Coming off a national championship, the Hoosiers have defeated the likes of Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon twice, and a very good Miami team that matched up in the trenches. Rutgers will have a significant talent disadvantage, even as Josh Hoover takes the reins from Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. Not much more needs to be said.

The other two games are interesting against some of the usual Big Ten powers in Penn State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions have a favorable schedule, avoiding the three heavy-hitters in Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana, and Matt Campbell should have them rolling by the time they take on Rutgers in November, with several Cyclones, including Rocco Becht, having transferred into the program. With the game in Happy Valley, it will be harder for the Scarlet Knights to hang in this one as they did last year.

The same can be said about Michigan, which underwent a coaching change of its own and brought in Kyle Whittingham to replace Sherrone Moore following his dismissal and arrest. The Wolverines should be a no-nonsense, run and stop the run team, getting back to their physical identity. Michigan has given Rutgers nightmares in the past, both with previous close losses and blowouts, and although not impossible, it would take a sizeable upset for the Knights to stop the long losing streak to UM.

Where Could Rutgers Football End Up?

Floor: 4-8(wins over UMass, BC, Howard, Maryland, or UMass, Howard, Maryland, MSU)

Ceiling: 8-4 (losses to USC, Indiana, Penn State, Michigan)

Early Record Prediction: 6-6/7-5

I see six wins, with Rutgers taking down UMass, Boston College, and Howard for a relatively easy nonconference sweep. They’ve done it with tougher ACC opponents in the past, and the Eagles do not look inspiring coming off a 2-10 season, to say the least. I also feel confident that the Knights can defeat Maryland and Michigan State.

I believe that Rutgers can take two out of the three swing games against Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska, which would give the Scarlet Knights seven wins, but in the chance they only get one, they would still finish 6-6 and go bowling. Northwestern is the most intriguing of the bunch, Nebraska would feel like the “eighth” win, and a road win at Wisconsin would likely be the sixth-most difficult.

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