Make no mistake: the most consequential Derby prep today is at Santa Anita.
“I’ve got the Derby winner.”
Those are the words told in the oft-repeated story of trainer Bob Baffert entering the Santa Anita racing office to enter Justify for his debut. That was in February of 2018, much later in a Derby-winning thoroughbred’s development than is typical. The rest is history: after winning his debut by 9 ½ lengths, Justify went on to win all 6 races in his powerful, abbreviated career. His run in the fog at Pimlico in the Preakness will forever be burned in my memory.
I remember watching Justify turn for home many lengths clear in the Belmont and thinking: “It’s simply not supposed to be this easy.” Justify’s Triple Crown is the sport’s most recent, and Justify the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without having raced at age 2.
Race 6 at Santa Anita today offers another shot at “Apollo’s Curse:” a trio of Baffert first-time starters, and a $1,000,000 purchase and son of Derby champ Nyquist from the Shirreffs barn. It’s the kind of race Justify won in 2018, a weekend maiden dirt sprint ahead of the meat of the Southern California Derby trail.
Weather has wreaked havoc on racing east of the Rockies, with most thoroughbred tracks having to hit the hard pause on racing. The Grade 3 Holy Bull will be contested today in South Florida, part of the series leading to the Grade 1 Florida Derby, and a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The news came this week that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and undefeated 2-year-old champ Ted Noffey is off the Derby trail with bone bruising. There’s a bunch of buzz around the Holy Bull - and rightly so - to see who can step into his assumed Derby starting gate slot.
Make no mistake: the most consequential Derby prep today is at Santa Anita. The quartet of top runners all have the requisite makeup to make a run in the Derby, and could be important parts of the 3-year-old campaign this year.
Let’s meet the field, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering on California racing, check out our friends at AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150 for new customers - and they’re live in California.
Race 6. Maiden Special Weight. 6 furlongs, dirt. 3-year-olds. $70,000.
1. Duntov. 9/2. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Duntov is the first of the Baffert trio, a son of Maxfield. Maxfield’s 2021 included 4 graded stakes wins, all dirt route races. With Flavien Prat no longer wintering in Southern California and injuries to Umberto Rispoli and 2025 riding champ Antonio Fresu, the jockey colony at Santa Anita is in a new state of flux. Enter Emisael Jaramillo, who’s riding for Baffert for the first time I can recall. He drew the rail, meaning he’ll have to break well, but there’s good news: Baffert has stressed gate works with Duntov, his last 5 works all from the gate. He’s a contender here, if the works are an indication.
Comment: contender.
2. Cruisin for Cali. 30/1. Jockey: Tiago Pereira. Trainer: Steve Knapp.
Cruisin for Cali will have to show something he hasn’t in his works if he’s going to win today. He is sired by 5-time stakes winner Catalina Cruiser, a stakes winner on both coasts. Trainer Steve Knapp is excellent on debut, winning at 20% in a limited sample size; expect that number to go down after today.
Comment: up against it.
3. Crude Velocity. 5/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Crude Velocity will be the favorite today, given the connections. I’ve been underwhelmed by Beau Liam’s progeny to this point, but the connections thought enough to pay a quarter-million for a horse that was bred for a $7,500 stud fee. Derby horses can come from anywhere, but they generally don’t start with that type of breeding fee. But make no mistake: Baffert booked Hernandez for a reason, and the works appear to be in line with the best of Baffert’s trainees.
Comment: include.
4. Deep Tracks. 12/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: John Shirreffs.
Deep Tracks is the expensive long-shot in the field, a million dollar purchase for CRK Stable. He’s a son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist, who also came out of the California route to the Derby. Shirreffs currently has Baeza in his barn, an indication of his continued ability to prepare horses for the biggest stages. Shirreffs won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with upset-minded Giacomo; today would be less of a surprise.
Comment: live long shot.
5. Constitution Andi. 30/1. Jockey: Victor Espinoza. Trainer: Mike Puype.
Trainer Mike Puype’s runners tend to need a race to get into form, and I expect that to be the case with Constitution Andi today. He’s got nice breeding for a Derby-type run - Constitution on top, Candy Ride on the dam side - but look for him to do his best running after the Triple Crown.
Comment: toss.
6. Ruler of Law. 4/1. Jockey: Edwin Maldonado. Trainer: Luis Mendez.
Ruler of Law is a 2nd-time starter, his first a productive 2nd-place finish in a turf sprint. That was just two weeks ago, but he’s worked since, and seems to be in great form. I love when trainers are as confident as Mendez is here in running their horses back; he’s a serious candidate to win, and to ruin the premise of this article. Mendez will have to up his winning percentage in these types of races - he’s 3-for-30 recently - if he’s going to upset the group here today.
Comment: can win.
7. Potente. 7/2. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
The most expensive horse in the race is Potente, a $2.4M purchase in August of 2024. He’s a son of 3-time Derby sire Into Mischief, so the excitement around him is understandable. Unlike the other Bafferts in this field, Potente started his serious works in November, as opposed to months prior. He’ll be the greenest runner in the field, but with the purchase price and expectations, I imagine they felt a need to get him to the track. If he wins here, look out for the hype train..
Comment: contender.
8. Captain Shreve. 3/1. Jockey: Kyle Frey. Trainer: George Papaprodromou.
Everything about Captain Shreve on paper suggests he should be favored at post time: good 1st start, gets lasix for the 1st time, the works have been dynamite. Alongside Ruler of Law, he stands the best chance of upsetting the Derby hype train coming out of this race. He was great for the 1st 4 furlongs on debut; we’ll see if he built some stamina that day, and gets it done here.
Comment: contender.
The Sporting Tribune Wager
$1 Pick 3, Starts Race 5 ($36): 2,5,7,9 / 3,4,7 / 2,4,7. Good luck!
Category: General Sports
