The Tigers have a stretch of favorable or toss-up games starting with their matchup Saturday. Can they take advantage?
When | 2:30 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction | Mizzou –7
ESPN win probability | 70.2% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 9.3 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.9 PPG)
F: Jacob Crews (GR, 11.0 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.4 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.8 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (JR, 8.5 PPG)
Mississippi State
G: Josh Hubbard (JR, 20.7 PPG)
G: Ja’borri McGhee (SR, 8.5 PPG)
G: Shawn Jones Jr. (SR, 5.4 PPG)
F: Achor Achor (R-SR, 5.0 PPG)
C: Quincy Ballard (R-SR, 6.2 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jayden Epps (SR, 14.8 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Mississippi State: a team in the middle of a down year
Mississippi State has been remarkably consistent in men’s basketball since Chris Jans arrived from New Mexico State. The Bulldogs recorded exactly 21 wins each of the past three seasons, reaching the NCAA Tournament in all three years after making the Big Dance just one time prior to that since 2010. MSU has also made quick exits in the tournament the last three years, losing its First Four matchup in 2023 and dropping games in the Round of 64 each of the past two seasons.
Jans’ squad was hit hard by graduations and the transfer portal, returning just two significant contributors from last year’s tournament team. Luckily for the Bulldogs, one of those players was star guard Josh Hubbard, who earned Second Team All-SEC honors after averaging 18.9 points per game. Mississippi State tried to offset its losses by adding multi-year starter Jayden Epps from Georgetown and UAB up-transfer Ja’Borri McGhee at guard, plus starting center Quincy Ballard from Wichita State. The team also brought in Achor Achor after he was a solid role player at Kansas State before being dismissed in the middle of the season last year by the Wildcats.
MSU looked outside the portal for some key additions, too, adding top-100 recruit Jamarion Davis-Fleming and Sergej Macura from the professional ranks in Europe. That pair, combined with its transfer additions and Hubbard (plus returning role player and now starter Shawn Jones Jr.), make up the core rotation of its team. The group was convincing enough to land at 10th in the SEC preseason media poll, but their results haven’t lined up with expectations or the success of Jans’ previous years in StarkVegas.
The Bulldogs find themselves barely above .500 at 11-10 on the season and are below water at 3-5 in the SEC. Mississippi State started off conference play with solid wins against Texas and Oklahoma before dropping its next five games, four of them by 15 or more points. MSU has likely played itself out of the tournament by this point, but it snapped the losing streak with a surprising 80-66 road win Wednesday over LSU.
Jans’ team represents the worst kind of opponent right now for Mizzou, which faces postseason questions of its own. The Tigers are expected to take care of business in Columbia, and a Quad 3 win won’t move the needle much. But a loss against a struggling Bulldogs squad could do permanent damage to MU’s tournament hopes and set the team back further in what’s already likely to be an uphill battle.
3 Keys to the Game
Outshoot the Bulldogs on the perimeter
Mississippi State ranks as one of the worst high major teams in three-point field goal percentage and is outside the top-300 nationally, but there’s a stark difference in the team’s perimeter shooting between wins and losses during conference play. The Bulldogs’ shooting from outside is nearly 10 percentage points better during wins — a difference similar to the one seen between Mizzou’s own wins and losses in the SEC.
The Tigers shot well from the perimeter over their first four games of conference play, hitting at least 35 percent of their perimeter shots during the stretch where they went 3-1. Since then? MU has a 1-3 record and hasn’t reached the 35 percent mark once.
This issue seems to be a point of emphasis for the team heading into the weekend. When asked at Tiger Talk on Wednesday about who he needs more production from moving forward, head coach Dennis Gates pointed out Jacob Crews, the team’s best shooter, and added that they need better shooting from Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce.
MSU ranks in the top-50 nationally at defending the three-point line, making a resurgence in perimeter shooting difficult when Mizzou is currently in a slump. But three-point shooting variance has already been a sledgehammer to the Tigers’ hopes for a victory in multiple SEC games this season, and they need to ensure that doesn’t happen again. Win the battle from beyond the arc, and winning the game itself becomes a lot simpler for a favored MU team.
Spread the scoring on offense
Another interesting stat that popped up when dividing Mizzou’s matchups over the first eight games of SEC play was double-digit scoring. The Tigers had four players reach that mark in three of their first four conference games, something that has only happened once over their last four contests.
Consolidation of a team’s scoring output is a lot easier to overcome when you have three players reach 20 points like MU did in its 88-87 win over Oklahoma. But it’s not a long-term recipe for success, and Mizzou has been best offensively when it has a wider group of players knocking down shots and putting up points on the scoreboard. That’s a feature of the offense the Tigers likely need to get back if they want to get back into the groove.
Comfortably win the turnover margin
With an offense prone to giveaways and a more conservative defense when it comes to applying pressure than in the past, turnovers haven’t been the advantage for Mizzou that they were in years prior under Gates. This might be the game for the coaching staff to break out some of its old tricks.
Mississippi State ranks outside the top-250 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio. The numbers look even worse for the Bulldogs when you get to turnover margin, where the team ranks toward the bottom of Division I and averages two fewer turnovers than its opponents. If the Tigers can limit their own mistakes on the offensive end and show a little bit more of a tendency toward havoc like the other defenses of the Gates era, they’ll make it extremely difficult for MSU to keep up.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 79 – Mississippi State 74
It’s usually hyperbole to label any particular game a “must-win,” but this one feels pretty close to earning that label for Mizzou. The Tigers are trending downwards and coming off a 26-point loss to Alabama, and a loss to Mississippi State would be an anchor around their already-burdened tournament resume.
At the same time, Saturday’s game is the start of a four-game stretch that features three matchups where MU will either be favored or be slight underdogs — a stretch the team needs to capitalize on with some tough matchups (including two against Arkansas) later on in the regular season.
Long story short: Mizzou has struggled as of late but will enter Saturday with plenty of motivation to come out and perform in front of a friendly (at least to the Tigers) crowd. I’ve got MU in a close game, with home court advantage and greater motivation (or desperation, your pick) playing a key role in the victory.
Category: General Sports
