Who's most likely to win the 2026 WWE Royal Rumble on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia? Ranking the top contenders on both the men's and women's side.
If last year’s Royal Rumble proved one thing, it’s that predicting the winner can be a fool’s errand. Then again, maybe Jey Uso’s questionable win at WrestleMania 41 is a good argument for why it’s better for WWE to go with more obvious winners rather than trying to swerve us at every turn.
If that’s the case, then who are the most credible names for potential Rumble winners this time around as the WWE heads to Saudi Arabia? Here are the names I’d pick as plausible winners as the Royal Rumble descends on Riyadh this weekend:
MEN’S MATCH
Roman Reigns (Likelihood: 4 out of 5)
Coming out of last year’s Survivor Series, “The Tribal Chief” looked like the obvious pick for this year’s Rumble, with big hints that WWE was planning Rhodes vs. Reigns at 'Mania.
Then came the infamous McIntyre swerve earlier this month, and that assumption appeared to go out the window — or at least the first part of it did.
Sure, Rhodes might not be champ, but why does that mean Reigns can’t win Saturday? He has the kind of superstar credentials that would surely please the Saudi government, which is spending so heavily on this event. On top of that, a Roman victory could also deliver a second outing for one of the best main events this decade, with Reigns vs. McIntyre II at 'Mania 42.
In other words, Drew’s shock win may have shaken up the chessboard, but I don’t think it’s dislodged Roman as the man to beat Saturday.
Bron Breakker (Likelihood: 3.5 out of 5)
What’s that old Paul Heyman catchphrase about predictions and spoilers? By now, most of us have learned to take it with a big pinch of kayfabe salt. But when “The Oracle” referred to Bron Breakker as a “future WrestleMania main eventer” in shoot interviews, the old maxim seemed like less of an exaggeration and more like, well, a spoiler.
So is there a case for Bron winning this time around and getting his main event right now? No one would argue that Breakker vs. CM Punk II would be an excellent curtain raiser for 'Mania 42. But is the Rumble really the best route for Breakker? Given his absurd levels of badassery, I’d say that the notoriously brutal Elimination Chamber is better suited to give him a statement victory.
After all, just imagine seeing one of those famous spears bombing through one of those plexiglass pods. Tell me that wouldn’t make you more excited for WrestleMania.
Brock Lesnar (Likelihood: 3 out of 5)
That he’s featured in both the WrestleMania poster and teaser trailer suggests that “The Beast Incarnate” will play a big role in this year’s “Showcase of the Immortals.” But the question remains as to what WWE will choose to do with their long-standing man monster and future Hall of Famer.
A slobberknocker with Gunther probably remains the wish-list option for wrestling nerds. But should we be so quick to rule out an old-fashioned world title match? Not only do Brock Lesnar and Drew McIntyre have history, but their previous vendetta (from 2021) felt like one of those stories that had much longer to run. Maybe this could be the moment to tie up some loose ends.
On the other hand, it would make Lesnar only the third person in history to win three separate Rumbles. He might be a legend of the game, but WWE doesn’t like to throw those kinds of records around like confetti.
Oba Femi (Likelihood: 3 out of 5)
The notion of having an NXT call-up win the Rumble in his first proper main roster appearance should be absurd. But this is Oba Femi we’re talking about. Not only is he perhaps the most physically imposing NXT star in history, but he has already achieved the near unthinkable for a developmental talent: getting a one-on-one with the WWE’s then-undisputed champion during John Cena’s retirement tour.
Don’t get me wrong, an Oba Femi victory would still be a very bold call. But it probably wouldn’t take long for it to start making sense.
Logan Paul (Likelihood: 2.5 out of 5)
For wrestling purists, it’s the kind of nightmare vision they would have laughed off just a few years ago. Logan Paul? Winning the Royal Rumble in an event paid for by the Saudi government? Unthinkable. But now, while it might still be a provocative scenario, it seems not entirely unlikely.
Given his incredible athleticism and growing commitment to the squared circle, I’ve long considered a Logan Paul win at the Rumble to be an underpriced scenario. So perhaps this is the year it happens.
We all know that the current WWE leadership remains head-over-heels for Logan Paul. We can also assume they probably offered a few special perks to get the influencer megastar to agree to a full-time contract. So don’t be too surprised if those two things come to a rather controversial culmination Saturday.
LA Knight (Likelihood: 2 out of 5)
Look, I get it: rooting for an LA Knight world title run can feel like a masochistic pursuit at this point. But weren’t there reports that his recent break from televised shows — the result of a kayfabe beatdown by The Vision — was all a ploy to set up one hell of a babyface comeback?
Add to that the reports of those LA Knight “Yeah!” signs going up in Riyadh, and you can see why his fans might be tempted to get their hopes up for Saturday.
All things considered, it remains unlikely. But it would be one hell of a story for "WWE Unreal" …
WOMEN’S MATCH
Liv Morgan (Likelihood: 4 out of 5)
If you thought the men’s picture for 'Mania 42 was uncertain, just take a look at the women’s side of things. Arguably, neither of the two world champions (Stephanie Vaquer and Jade Cargill) has any obvious challengers right now.
So why is Liv Morgan such a good pick to win the Rumble? That she’s a bona fide superstar is a given by now. But the fact that she was passed over for the big matches at last year’s 'Mania makes me think that 2026 could be her turn to shine. And we know that WWE likes to keep things rotating between different stars in the women’s division.
On top of all that, a Liv win could finally provide the catalyst to move to the next phase of the Judgment Day storyline and bring all of those long-standing tensions to a boil. Just how long have they been stewing away for now?
Bianca Belair (Likelihood: 4 out of 5)
There’s no way WWE books WrestleMania 42 without Bianca Belair. That’s clear. And if we’re picking potential Rumble winners, then it helps that Belair surely has to be the most logical contender to clash with the current Women’s Champion, Jade Cargill, given that the two of them used to be partners.
If Belair vs. Cargill is indeed the plan, then Belair has to win either the Rumble or the Chamber. Since she won the latter last year, you’d assume the former is the more likely choice this time around.
That’s a lot of assumptions, admittedly. But you can’t say that the winds aren't blowing in Belair’s favor.
Tiffany Stratton (Likelihood: 3 out of 5
Given how much has happened since then, it’s easy to forget just how hot WWE was on Tiffany Stratton for much of last year. Having her win the Women’s Championship was just the start of it. She then went on to have the longest singles title run of the year, including scoring massive wins over Charlotte Flair at WrestleMania and Jade Cargill at SummerSlam.
Having been absent from television since dropping her title, a Tiffy comeback at the Rumble feels like a certainty. And given how highly the WWE thinks of her, I wouldn’t rule out the former NXT champion going on to win the whole thing. What a relaunch that would be.
Lyra Valkyria (Likelihood: 2.5 out of 5)
The second season of "Unreal" provided a welcome reminder of just what a barnstorming rookie year Lyra Valkyria delivered in 2025. By now, the Irish youngster is a solid bet for a world title run this decade. And a Rumble win is a tried-and-tested way to make that happen. So why not strike while the iron is hot and have her win in the year of our Lord 2026?
It would be a surprise outcome, according to the Vegas odds. But you get the sense that most wrestling fans would get behind it.
Rhea Ripley (Likelihood: 2.5 out of 5)
Whenever there’s a prize to be had in the women’s division, Rhea Ripley is always a good pick to take it. So could this year’s Rumble mark the great Ripley relaunch, propelling her straight into a goth-vs.-goth title match with Stephanie Vaquer at WrestleMania? That has to be a plausible outcome on Saturday.
On balance, I still think it’s more likely that we’re getting that WrestleMania showdown between RhIyo and Flair/Bliss — a match that has been teased more than GTA 6 at this point. But the sight of “The Eradicator” winning her second Rumble (putting her level with Charlotte Flair, incidentally) would be one hell of a way to kick off this year’s WrestleMania season.
Category: General Sports
