NCAA Hockey Bracketology: January 29

Penn State picked up its two biggest wins of its seven-game winning streak, a road sweep of top 10 Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions jumped up to No. 4 in the NPI with the wins, and as of this morning, PSU is in a tie for the No. 3 spot with North Dakota. As we turn the calendar to February next week, the tournament picture continues to tighten up.

As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:

Locks (5): Michigan, Michigan State, North Dakota, Penn State, Western Michigan
Safe (5): Minnesota-Duluth, Quinnipiac, Providence, Cornell, Wisconsin
Bubble In (5): St. Thomas, Dartmouth, Denver, Boston College, UConn
Automatic Qualifiers (1): Bentley

Bubble Out (5): Augustana, St. Cloud State, Minnesota State, Harvard, Bowling Green

My projected bracket looks like this:

Sioux Falls Regional

• North Dakota vs. Boston College
• Minnesota-Duluth vs. St. Thomas

Worcester Regional

• Michigan State vs. UConn
• Quinnipiac vs. Wisconsin

Albany Regional

• Michigan vs. Bentley
• Providence vs. Cornell

Loveland Regional

• Penn State vs. Denver
• Western Michigan vs. Dartmouth

Some things to note here:

• Thankfully selection is not for another seven weeks, because this would be the worst possible region for Penn State. Having to travel all the way to Colorado to face host Denver is no easy feat. And if they were to get past the Pioneers, red-hot defending champion Western Michigan or upstart Cornell would be waiting. But after Penn State got a home regional as a four seed last year, I can’t be too upset if this ends up happening.
• Quinnipiac took over the lead in the ECAC after Dartmouth lost both of its weekend games. The Bobcats are in excellent shape.
• UConn won non-conference games against Quinnipiac and Yale to enter this week’s field. Augustana dropped its only game of the weekend, a 4-1 decision to Minnesota State, to drop out. Otherwise, all other teams in the bracket are the same as last week.
• St. Thomas has been a great story and leads the CCHA, but they are not yet safe. They have a five-point lead in the conference standings but will face each of the No. 2-4 teams in the CCHA in their next six games.

Key Games This Weekend

No. 2 Michigan State at No. 4 Penn State- Friday (6pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (1pm on BTN)

• I will have the full preview tomorrow. All attention will be on the outdoor game on Saturday, but don’t forget the Friday game at what should be a raucous Pegula Ice Arena.

No. 1 Michigan at Ohio State- Friday (6:30pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (5pm on Big Ten Plus)

• The Wolverines travel to Ohio State for what could be a sneaky tough series on the road. Any slippage by Michigan could have the winner of the MSU-PSU series in the Big Ten lead on Saturday night.

No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth at No. 13 Denver- Friday at 9pm, Saturday at 8pm

• Denver is looking for a quality win at home to stay in the NCAA Tournament field, while Minnesota-Duluth will try to climb back into position for a No. 1 seed.

No. 24 Michigan Tech at No. 11 St. Thomas- Friday at 8pm, Saturday at 8pm

• The Tommies begin their critical six-game stretch at home against Michigan Tech. St. Thomas has a decent lead in the CCHA standings, but they will need to at least earn a split to maintain it.