Husker Wrestling: #6 Nebraska Hitting Road to Face #1 Penn State Friday Night

The 6th-ranked Nebraska wrestling team has a monumental task ahead of it — the Huskers will travel Friday night to take on the top-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions.

Winners of 12 of the last 14 NCAA Championships, Penn State has won the last four national titles. This past year, the Nittany Lions set the record for team points again at the national tournament with 177 — the year before, they set the record with 172.5 points. They had five-time champion Carter Starocci and four-timer Aaron Brooks on those teams.

After setting the national scoring record two years in a row, it’s pretty crazy to think that this team may be even better than both those teams. For the first time in history, Penn State has SIX wrestlers ranked #1 at their weight class. Eight of their starters are undefeated.

Penn State’s 10 starters have a combined record of 129-3 on the season. In duals, Penn State is 11-0 with seven shutouts on the year. In Big Ten duals, Penn State is 5-0 with four shutouts — the lone non-shutout was a 32-3 drubbing of #4 Iowa. In those 50 Big Ten matches, Penn State wrestlers are an incredible 49-1.

It really has been surreal to see how dominant they’ve been this season — and they have three freshmen and three sophomores in the lineup.

For its part, Nebraska has been one of the better teams in the country this year, only dropping duals to teams ranked in the top-5 nationally. Just this past Sunday, Nebraska nearly knocked off #2 Ohio State, dropping the dual 17-16 after winning five straight matches from 157-197. The Huskers have nine ranked wrestlers — eight of whom are ranked in the top-10 nationally at their weight.

With all that said, I don’t want Husker fans to fret too much. There are some seriously interesting matchups in this dual, and Nebraska really has nothing to lose. If they lose matches, they were supposed to and their stock won’t really fall. If they win any of these matches, it has the potential to raise their profile considerably.

All the pressure is on Penn State in this one — They’re supposed to roast the Huskers, and winning any less than eight of the ten matches will be looked at as a disappointment.

Is There a Path to Victory?

There is always a path to victory, but this one is narrow as can be. Nebraska needs wins at both weight classes where it’s favored — 141 and 285 pounds — and bonus points are essential.

Nebraska would also need slight upsets at 133, 157 and 184, giving the Huskers five wins.

With Penn State likely scoring some bonus points, Nebraska will either have to minimize those or win six matches — both are stretches, but here goes.

The weight classes where Nebraska has a shot at a big upset and its sixth win in this scenario would be at 149, 174 or 197. All three are facing unbeaten top-ranked wrestlers who are heavy favorites to win NCAA titles this year, but that’s the path.

Nebraska will also have to avoid giving up bonus points in its losses — especially at 125 and 165 where the Huskers are up against it.

Nebraska Favored

The Huskers are favored in just two matches in this dual — 141 and 285 pounds.

For Nebraska, #3 Brock Hardy is a big favorite over #13 Braeden Davis. The junior Davis is 8-1 on the year after burning his redshirt — he’s a former Big Ten Champion at 125 pounds who wrestled at 133 as a sophomore. This year, he’s up again to 141 and has taken over since the injury to starter Aaron Nagao.

Hardy is 13-4 this year with his only losses coming to #1 Jesse Mendez and #2 Sergio Vega. Against everyone else, Hardy has been solid, and I expect him to do the same here. Hardy needs to be on the hunt for bonus points though for his team.

At heavyweight, #4 AJ Ferrari is the heavy favorite over #9 Cole Mirasola, an undersized yet very talented redshirt freshman. However, I could see a scenario where Nebraska decides to get true freshman Cade Ziola in here. A match on the road at Penn State would be monumental to his development and preparation for next year.

I also think Ziola would win against Mirasola — and he may even have a better chance of scoring bonus points based on his style compared to Ferrari’s.

Toss-Ups?

There are a couple matches here that could really be a coin flip — 157 and 184 pounds.

First of all, Nebraska has NCAA Champion #5 Antrell Taylor taking on #2 PJ Duke. A true freshman with a 13-0 record this year, Duke is a supreme talent. Duke even beat Taylor this past summer in freestyle, but Taylor was leading the match with 30 seconds to go.

This is a match that I think Taylor can win, especially since it’s in folkstyle.

At 184, Penn State’s #1 Rocco Welsh (13-0) is off to a great start to the season, but he really doesn’t score a lot of points — he relies a lot on his defense and often finds himself in one-score matches that sometimes go to overtime. Nebraska’s #6 Silas Allred has done the same thing this year against top competition — he’s won overtime matches against #7 Dylan Fishback of Ohio State and #8 Zack Ryder of Oklahoma State and lost an overtime match against #4 Max McEnelly. Allred also won a close one over Ryder and lost close matches to #3 Aeoden Sinclair of Missouri and Iowa’s Gabe Arnold.

I could see this match either coming down to one takedown or overtime, giving Allred a puncher’s chance to win.

An Actual Shot at an Upset

I certainly wouldn’t put my money on it, but Nebraska does have a chance to win matches at 133, 149, 174 and 197. The Huskers will be heavy underdogs in these matches, but they are all interesting matchups that could go Nebraska’s way if Lady Luck sides with Big Red.

At 133, Nebraska’s #10 Jacob Van Dee will take on #6 Marcus Blaze of Penn State. A super-recruit who has won world title at the U17, U20 and U23 levels already, Blaze is off to a 15-0 start to his career as a true freshman. He’s scored bonus points in every match except for a 4-2 decision win over Iowa’s #9 Drake Ayala, a two-time NCAA finalist. Van Dee just lost to Ayala 12-6, but he came out and got the first takedown.

Van Dee is certainly the underdog here, but he’s a true warrior who will not back down, so he has a chance.

At 149 pounds, #13 Chance Lamer will take on Penn State’s #1 Shayne Van Ness. Lamer struggled last week with two losses to top-10 wrestlers, but he’s a veteran who won’t shy away from Van Ness. The Nittany Lion junior is 14-0 this year and is the favorite to win the 149-pound title, but he’s beatable — Ridge Lovett beat him twice last season and he’s in the room every day with Lamer.

At 174, Penn State’s #1 Levi Haines has been dominant with a 15-0 record this year — he’s 86-4 for his career — but he hasn’t faced Nebraska’s #4 Christopher Minto yet. Minto is coming off a big sudden-victory win over #5 Carson Kharchla of Ohio State this past weekend, and Kharchla has been close to beating Haines in the past.

Don’t get me wrong, Haines is the favorite here, but Minto represents a serious challenge.

It may be a long shot, but Nebraska’s #10 Camden McDanel does represent the biggest in-conference test to Penn State’s #1 Josh Barr this year. Barr beat McDanel last year via technical fall twice, but the Husker sophomore has really turned a corner this season.

Barr is a heavy favorite, and a loss via decision would be considered a win here, but the U20 World bronze-medalist McDanel is no push-over — he is capable of pulling the upset here if everything falls his way.

Not Holding My Breath

There are two weight classes where Nebraska is HEAVY underdogs — 125 and 165.

It’s unclear who Nebraska will send out at 125 — redshirt freshman Kael Lauridsen or sophomore Alan Koehler — and they’ll face #1 Luke Lilledahl. A multi-time age-level World Champion, Lilledahl is 13-0 this year (although he lost to teammate Nate Desmond 5-3 early in the year).

All we can really hope for is to limit bonus points here.

At 165, it’s not an indictment on Nebraska’s #7 LJ Araujo, but Penn State’s #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink is just that good. The returning NCAA Champion, Mesenbrink is 15-0 this year with all of his wins coming with bonus points — he’s the current favorite to win the Hodge Trophy. Mesenbrink is 67-1 for his career.

Araujo has proven to be extremely tough to score upon, but he did just lose via major decision to #3 Michael Caliendo of Iowa. Mesenbrink is 7-0 in his career against Caliendo with multiple bonus-point wins.

Keeping this match to a decision would be a monumental achievement for the redshirt freshman Araujo.