UNC’s 2026 Football Schedule Announced

Last season, UNC’s football program under the guidance of Bill Belichick and Mike Lombardi stumbled to a 4-8 record against a remarkably bad collection of opponents. ESPN’s FPI ranked it the 80th easiest schedule in the country, then rated the performance against said schedule as 104th out of FBS’s 136 teams. Fremeau’s Football Efficiency Index ranked the schedule at 94th and the team’s performance against it at 109th. What do those numbers mean? The Tar Heels’ opponents on average were bad, but UNC football was even worse. That’s apparently what three Belichicks and two Lombardi’s — at a collective cost of $15 million annually — buys these days.

UNC’s nonconference opponents and dates have been known for awhile now. While UNC’s eight ACC opponents have also been known since last month, the ACC announced the order and dates of them last night. So, what does UNC’s schedule for next season look like?

Out of conference, UNC subtracts Charlotte and UCF while adding UConn and Notre Dame. ETSU replaces Richmond as the rent-a-win on the schedule (although a small percentage of those every season end up embarrassing the renter). The TCU game adds the complication of an overseas trip. Belichick’s Patriots played three games in Europe, so he’s at least familiar with the challenges.

UNC’s conference slate retains Virginia, Clemson, Duke, NC State, and Syracuse from last season. Louisville, Miami, and Pitt replace Wake Forest, Stanford, and California. While college football recently has featured some shocking variance season to season, the three incoming opponents on paper appear much more competitive than the three outgoing. Dabo Swinney has waved the white flag on the transfer portal, importing nine new players for this season alone after importing only seven the last five seasons combined. First impressions, the conference schedule looks to be tougher as well.

All of that means this: UNC could have a much better football team next season, but a more difficult schedule might not show it in a simple measure of wins and losses. With so many variables out there between now and the 12 kick-offs, we might as well throw darts at wins and losses predictions, But, it’s the off-season, and what else are we going to do for our football fix? I see another 4-8 effort, with wins over ETSU, Virginia, Duke, and Pitt. What’s your prediction?

Other random schedule thoughts:

“Wait, I thought the ACC was going to a nine game conference schedule?”

The ACC did adopt a nine game conference schedule this season. However, with 17 teams (and Notre Dame) to accommodate, that left a few teams stuck with only eight. In UNC’s case, this probably allowed ETSU to remain on the schedule in lieu of a team like Virginia Tech, a development for which Belichick should probably be grateful.

Home versus Away

UNC gets Notre Dame, Syracuse, Miami, Louisville, and NC State at home. That’s an entertaining slate, if UNC can make the games competitive. Getting so many tough opponents in Chapel Hill marginally mitigates the increase in schedule strength. TCU and Clemson away makes two tough opponents that much more a challenge.

Toughest Stretch

An open date and ETSU prior to the trip to Death Valley seems beneficial. UNC also gets an open date prior to welcoming Notre Dame. The cost of those two early byes will be nine straight weeks of ACC opponents plus Notre Dame and UConn. That’s going to test depth, an open question for a team putting so much emphasis on developing (which means playing) a 39-player recruiting class.

Likely consigned to Streaming Hell?

Opening 1-3, which is a distinct possibility, would test this team’s resolve as well as make ESPN leery of spotlighting any of Carolina’s games past that point. On the flip side, beating a marquee brand like Clemson or Notre Dame could renew interest in the Belichick Experiment and earn better TV slots. Given the way the ACC distributes media revenue, that seems a must given the financial investment in this coaching staff. The allure of Belichick on the sidelines wore off quickly last season, relegating UNC to punchline and then irrelevancy. Three prominent early season games, with some extra time to prepare for them, provide this coaching staff with ample opportunity to turn around perceptions.