What might a C.J. Stroud contract extension look like?
I made a statement in the last VOT that this decision will be the hardest decision in franchise history. The Texans paid their last franchise quarterback a lot of money, but the decision to pay him was not difficult. Everyone in the organization and city agreed at the time that he was a franchise quarterback. Everyone does not agree this time around. There is obviously what the going rate says about what quarterbacks should make and there is what performance would say.
You can split the NFL into three tiers. There are the top ten quarterbacks in salary and performance. For the most part they match, but that is not universally true. It could be easy to say that if your quarterback is not a top ten quarterback then he shouldn’t be paid like a top ten quarterback. The last tier is the tier of young quarterbacks that haven’t been paid yet or teams that are simply punting on quarterback until they can find a better one in free agency or the draft.
We are concerned with the middle group. These are guys that are entrenched in their locations, but they were not paid top dollar for one reason or another. In some cases, they signed their deals before the last couple of seasons when salaries exploded. In others cases they just weren’t considered top tier quarterbacks. If we include Stroud in that group then there are ten such quarterbacks.
A large part of my communication with David Mulugheta (Stroud’s agent) would be that he doesn’t want to negotiate based on where Stroud is right now. That would put Stroud firmly in the group of quarterbacks underneath the top ten. In this table, we will look at completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt, TD%, and INT%. We can determine where Stroud fits within that group and then look at player salaries for the group. There are a number of different ways to play this and I think what you will see is that all of them will arrive at a similar place and similar number.
| Games | PCT | YPG | YPA | TD% | INT% | |
| Matthew Stafford | 48 | 64.4 | 259.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 51 | 66.3 | 239.9 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 |
| Sam Darnold | 35 | 66.7 | 247.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 46 | 66.0 | 254.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 30 | 66.3 | 252.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | 46 | 63.8 | 236.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| Geno Smith | 47 | 67.7 | 233.4 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Kyler Murray | 30 | 67.8 | 220.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 34 | 64.2 | 212.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| Daniel Jones | 29 | 66.1 | 209.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
There are any number of ways to look at this data, but we should begin by removing Stroud entirely and looking at the average amongst the remaining nine quarterbacks. We calculate average in two different ways. We can look at the numerical mean (mathematical average) or the median (the number in the middle). We then can compare Stroud’s numbers with those averages
- Mean: 38.9 games, 66.2 PCT, 236.5 YPG, 7.2 YPA, 4.6 TD%, 2.2 INT%
- Median: 35 games, 66.3 PCT, 239.9 YPG, 7.3 YPA, 4.5 TD%, 2.1 INT%
So, based on these numbers, Stroud finishes better than average in about half the categories and below average in the other half. That would seem to indicate he is right around average. If we look at his composite ranking then he would rank in a tie for fifth with Kirk Cousins. So, if we were following Bill James’ similarity scores model then he would be closest to Cousins.
- Mean AAV: 34.5 million
- Median AAV: 37.5 million
- 5th place AAV: 37.5 million
- Kirk Cousins AAV: 45.0 million
If we were to assume that the top ten quarterbacks in salary are all better than Stroud and these quarterbacks are the next tier then Stroud fits somewhere nicely around the middle of the league. Obviously, some of the younger quarterbacks like Drake Maye and Bo Nix might be better if we were to break them down as well, but some quarterbacks on top might be worse. He is an average NFL starting quarterback no matter which way you slice it.
Putting it all together
The numbers above represent a minimum and maximum for Stroud in a contract. The minimum probably sits at 35 million and the maximum sits at 45 million. If I were Mulugheta I would likely choose to wait another year to see what happens with average salaries and hope that Stroud can put up better numbers and move himself up that ladder.
If I were the Texans I might go as high as 45 million in AAV. That would mean he would be getting the same pay as Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes. Mulugheta could spin that however he wants, but if I were Nick Caserio I would probably keep the contract at about 40 million now and explain that we would prefer to wait a season and negotiate off of a happier ending. Based on these numbers alone (and forgetting the way it ended) it would seem foolish to offer 50 million per season or more. Of course, that is why I am sitting here and why the people are NRG are sitting where they are.
Category: General Sports
