How Might Sunderland Handle Any Further January Departures?

I think everyone can agree that the summer transfer window was a huge success.

The signs are that January will be a lot quieter with the majority of work focused on outgoings. Given the numbers in the “bomb squad” — plus those out on loan — has the club left itself with a problem?

Obviously the most effort will go into moving on those exiled from first-team training but still at the club — and there’s has already been some success with Timothée Pembélé, Jay Matete and Joe Anderson at new clubs, leaving Abdoullah Ba and Ian Poveda looking for a way out.

There are also a few current “bench warmers” who might leave.

The most obvious one is Dan Neil, with Anthony Patterson another. However, Régis Le Bris has stated he wants a replacement before Patterson can move on, so that one is less likely. Elsewhere, Harrison Jones and Leo Hjelde might go out on loan but regardless of his contract situation, I can’t see why the club would want to move Dennis Cirkin on.​

The problem that is rapidly coming into view is what to do with the current (eight) first-team loan players. Of Niall Huggins, Patrick Roberts, Nazariy Rusyn, Jenson Seelt, Hemir, Adil Aouchiche, Alan Browne and Milan Aleksić, it appears that none — other than perhaps Seelt — has a future at the club.

That’s a lot to move on, so has the club been negligent in collecting so many players with no future? Like any club, there has been a huge turnover of players since the 2021/2022 season — some permanent, most loans.

Many, such as Alex Pritchard and Danny Batth, were great servants, whereas others, like Leon Dajaku, weren’t. Maybe we lost a little on transfer deals for some players, but no huge sums. Of course, wages are also an issue, but I doubt we were paying out significant sums.

Roberts and Huggins arrived in the 2021-22 season, so let’s start an analysis.

Of the bomb squad, only Poveds could be classed as an “established” player and of the loanees, only Roberts, Rusyn, Browne and perhaps Aouchiche. Most new arrivals, such as Trai Hume and Eliezer Mayenda, were brought in as “ones for the future”.

Of the players signed from the 2021-22 season to the end of the 2024-25 season, Hume, Dan Ballard, Romaine Mundle, Mayenda and Wilson Isidor are now first-teamers in the Premier League. Jack Clarke and Jobe Bellingham made significant contributions and delivered a large profit when they moved on, but what about the rest?

We could argue all day about what counts as a “successful” transfer. As everyone seems obsessed with data, maybe a data scientist could provide some clues.

In his book How To Win The Premier League (a great read, by the way), Ian Graham suggests that if a player purchased for more than £10 million fails to start 50% of the league games played in the following two seasons, the transfer should be classed as a failure.

Graham also states that 46% of players bought for £10 million or more across all teams in the Premier League between 1992 and January 2021 failed to reach the 50% mark in the seasons immediately after their arrival.

Unfortunately, that model can’t be applied to Sunderland — at least not yet. Under the current ownership, no player was purchased for anywhere near £10 million until the last transfer window, and as mentioned above, we bought more development players than established.

I suggest a reasonable measure of success would be if a player participated in twenty games (roughly half a season) during their Sunderland career. This takes account of the transfer strategy, our League One/Championship status, low transfer fees and relatively low wages.

From the “bomb squad” and loanees, only four (Pembélé, Anderson, Poveda and Aleksic) failed to hit the twenty-appearance mark. Given we found a few gems along the way and collected some hefty transfer fees, I don’t think it’s reasonable to complain.

Now, just for a bit of fun, let’s apply Graham’s model to the last transfer window.

Ten players came in for fees rumoured to be over £10 million: Habib Diarra, Simon Adingra, Enzo Le Fée, Brian Brobbey, Chemsdine Talbi, Noah Sadiki, Granit Xhaka, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete and Robin Roefs.

Assuming they all stay for two seasons, then how many will pass the test? I’ll take a punt on eight. If I’m right, that’s impressive business!