NCAAF expert Brad Powers shares his best bets for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game between Miami and Indiana on Monday, January 19.
Miami and Indiana weren't supposed to be here. Yet their paths, equal parts resilience, precision, and belief, have converged into a national title game that challenges preseason assumptions, tests betting markets, and reframes how we judge greatness in the modern era.
Renowned professional handicapper Brad Powers is back to dissect the CFP National Championship Game and to weigh in on what makes both of these programs so daunting.
Check out his NCAAF picks and analysis below.
Miami vs 
Indiana best bet
Pick: Miami +8 (-112 at FanDuel)
The market opened with Indiana as a sizable favorite, but the sharper recommendations from the analysts lean into Miami's profile and a lower-scoring script. Brad Powers' card centers on Miami +8, although he also likes first half Under 24 points, and Indiana Under 158.5 rushing yards, positions that reflect both statistical trends and perceived market inefficiencies.
The first-half Under aligns with a persistent season-long trend that has seen Miami's offense take time to settle. Couple that with Indiana's structure and discipline, and the early script looks methodical. If the game bends to that tone, Miami +8 gains even more value, especially given Miami's stubborn refusal to be knocked out of games, both emotionally and on the scoreboard.
"It's been very difficult to get margin on Miami in the last two and a half years," Powers says. "Their last eight losses have been by seven points or less in every single game."
Indiana Under 158.5 rushing yards is a matchup-specific play. Miami's defensive front has thrived against physical opponents, muddying rushing lanes and forcing third-and-medium. If the Hurricanes compress early-down success for Indiana, they can nudge the Hoosiers into a more pass-first posture and keep the clock running, an outcome that synergizes with the Under positions across the board.
"If you want to go with an individual player prop. let's go with their leading rusher Roman Hemby Under 62.5 rushing yards," he says. "He's not a breakaway type of player even though he leads them in rushing."
Miami vs Indiana is an unprecedented national championship matchup
The sheer improbability of this matchup is part of its appeal. Miami opened as high as 200-1 to reach the title game, Indiana around 100-1, and yet both outplayed the more pedigreed brands that usually monopolize January. The contrast isn't just in logos; it's in identity. Indiana has been ruthless and repeatable in its execution, while Miami has been stubbornly unbreakable in tight games. Together, they've engineered a final that waves off the idea that rosters alone dictate destiny.
"Indiana entered the season as the most losing program in the history of college football, so this is a stunner," Powers says. "Even though they went to the playoffs last year, I think you could have gotten them more than 100-to-1 in the preseason."
The setting adds more texture. Though the game is in Miami, ticket data hints at a surprising atmosphere advantage for the Hoosiers. The traveling red wave reflects what Indiana has become: organized, energized, and deeply bought in. For a program that once felt anonymous in big moments, this surge of belief is both symbolic and tangible.
The rise and dominance of Indiana's football program
The Hoosiers' ascent is less about a single breakthrough and more about compound gains. Last year's playoff run gave them proof of concept; this year's run gave them inevitability. Their identity is intentional: veteran core, precise coaching, repeatable schemes, and weekly adherence to plan. It's the kind of build that resists variance, especially against teams that rely on splash plays to change game states.
Indiana has also mastered momentum management. When they lead, they suffocate; when they trail, they refuse to panic, trusting defensive leverage and field-position battles to tilt the math back. That's how you stack those 12 double-digit wins without chasing style points. It's not a hype-based rise; it's proof-of-process football.
Miami's resilience and defensive physicality
If Indiana's edge is inevitability, Miami's is elasticity. The Hurricanes bend, never break. That two-and-a-half-year streak of avoiding losses by more than a touchdown isn't just trivia; it defines their approach in high-leverage minutes. They punch above their weight in trench moments, which matters even more against a team that prefers to control rhythm.
"For Miami to win the game, they're going to have to win the line of scrimmage, which is what they've done against the league competition," Powers says.
Expect Miami to compress this game laterally, rally to the ball, and treat every Indiana snap like a negotiation. Offensively, a steady diet of body blows and calculated shots keeps them on schedule while reducing exposure to negative plays. That blueprint also supports the Under angles, and it's why live bettors might find value if Miami trails early but continues to control the trenches.
How Indiana stacks up historically
If Indiana detonates the final with another runaway win, the conversation escalates quickly. You can acknowledge roster differences while still recognizing what a 16-0 season represents in the modern era: near-flawless preparation, execution, and psychological steadiness across four months and every stylistic matchup.
"Give them credit for what they've done," Powers says. "16-0 is something that hasn't been done in college football in over 100 years, but one through 44 their roster is nowhere near as deep as some of those Alabama, Clemson, and LSU teams."
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
Category: General Sports
