MBB Preview: Mizzou set to face a desperate LSU team in Baton Rouge

When | 2:30 p.m. CT

Where | Pete Maravich Assembly Center; Baton Rouge, La.

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

KenPom prediction | LSU -5

ESPN win probability | 39.7% chance

The Starters

Mizzou

G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 10.6 PPG)

G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.7 PPG)

F: Jacob Crews (GR, 12.1 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.5 PPG)

C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.6 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.8 PPG)

LSU

G: Rashad King (SR, 5.1 PPG)

G: Max Mackinnon (SR, 14.5 PPG)

F: Pablo Tamba (GR, 7.1 PPG)

F: Marquel Sutton (SR, 13.1 PPG)

F: Mike Nwoko (JR, 14.4 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Robert Miller III (SO, 6.1 PPG)

Note: these starting lineups are projected.

Get to know LSU: a team on the brink

Matt McMahon entered the 2025-26 season under some serious pressure in Baton Rouge. After recording 154 wins and three NCAA Tournament appearances over seven years at Murray State, he failed to bring a similar level of success in his first three seasons at LSU. The Tigers stumbled to a 14-18 record and a 3-15 mark in conference play last year, becoming one of only two teams in the SEC to miss out on March Madness during a record-breaking year for the conference in men’s basketball.

The disappointing season led to another exodus of talent from Baton Rouge. LSU lost starters Dji Bailey, Cam Carter and Jordan Sears to graduation. But Vyctorious Miller, Daimion Collins, Corey Chest and Curtis Givens III, who combined to make 58 starts last season, all exited via the transfer portal. The combination of players electing to move elsewhere and using up their last year of eligibility left the Tigers with only two returners who started in a game last season — Jalen Reed and Robert Miller III, who both made eight starts.

McMahon was forced to dramatically reshape his roster via the portal again, bringing in six or more transfers for the third time in four seasons. LSU’s seven portal additions amounted to the 16th-best portal class in the nation by 247Sports’ rankings. But On3’s rankings, which account for outgoing transfers, have the Bayou Bengals all the way down at 49th — with the impact of the incoming and outgoing players essentially a wash, if not a slight step back.

The class was headlined by the 2025 Summit League Player of the Year, forward Marquel Sutton from Omaha, and Dedan Thomas Jr., a two-time All-Mountain West guard at UNLV. LSU bolstered its guard depth with Max Mackinnon, a sharpshooting Aussie out of Portland, and All-CAA performer Rashad King from Northeastern. And the Tigers retooled at forward with Pablo Tamba from UC Davis, who averaged 11.3 points while starting all 32 games for the Aggies, and their only power conference transfer, starter Mike Nwoko from Mississippi State.

McMahon’s collection of mid-major transfers, paired with an SEC starter and a few promising returners, overpowered a non-conference slate of low-and-mid-major teams and middling power conference opponents including Boston College, DePaul and SMU. The team’s only major challenge came against top-25 Texas Tech, a game they lost in an 82-58 blowout. But LSU’s 12-1 record entering SEC play made for a feasible path to the tournament with just a couple of toss-up wins and upset victories at home.

Four games into conference play, that path looks extremely narrow. The Tigers remain winless in the SEC with double-digit losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt alongside heartbreakers at Texas A&M and against Kentucky. LSU’s loss to the Wildcats in Baton Rouge on Wednesday was particularly devastating as the game came down to a Malachi Moreno buzzer beater off a full-court pass.

The tailspin has turned McMahon’s seat from hot to flame broil, with LSU athletics director Verge Ausberry publicly applying pressure to the coach. “If he doesn’t make it (the NCAA Tournament),” Ausberry said Tuesday, “we’ll have to reevaluate.” The Tigers will enter Saturday’s game depleted by injuries to Reed, who is out for the remainder of the season, and Thomas, whose status is unclear after missing the first four games of SEC play. They’ll also enter the contest desperate for a win, making for a potentially dangerous matchup on the road.

3 Keys to the Game

Control the paint

Mizzou’s defense has taken a step up since the return of Pierce and Stone, holding opponents to below 44 percent from the field in each of the past four games. The Tigers have limited opposing teams to shooting 47 percent from within the arc in SEC games, forcing them to rely on perimeter shooting to compensate for the lack of efficiency in the paint and the mid range. That’s something only Ole Miss has been able to do, shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc in MU’s 76-69 loss. Mizzou held each of Florida, Kentucky and Auburn to below 40 percent from three-point range, with both the Gators and Tigers from The Plains shooting below 30 percent from deep.

That strategy should again come into play against LSU. The Bayou Bengals are ranked 23rd in the nation with a 49.95 field goal percentage but are outside of the top-200 in three-point field goal percentage, relying on efficiency from two-point range to generate offense. McMahon’s squad has failed to maintain that effectiveness from within the arc against SEC competition, shooting 49.6 percent on two-point field goal attempts over the last four games. The recipe that’s led to success for Mizzou in January is the same recipe that has been LSU’s downfall: focus on limiting quality looks in the paint and force them to beat you from the perimeter. More often that not, that’s something the Tigers from Baton Rouge have been unable to do.

Capitalize off LSU’s mistakes

One of the key areas where Thomas’ absence from LSU has been most obvious is the team’s uptick in turnovers. The team is averaging 11.8 turnovers per game this season, but the Bayou Bengals have coughed the ball up 14 or more times in three of their four SEC games. Those mistakes have led to an average of 15 points off turnovers for the opposing team, a costly feature of the team’s offense without its star guard.

Mizzou isn’t quite the same havoc machine it was at times during previous seasons under Gates, but the team has still been efficient in generating offense from turnovers over the last four games. During tough conference games, getting a win can sometimes be as simple as making less costly mistakes and taking full advantage of the ones made by your opponent. Turnovers, and the offense generated from them, could be a decisive factor for Mizzou if it can capitalize.

Win the bench battle

MU’s bench production has dipped since earlier in the year, but the team still ranks in the top-75 nationally with 28.75 bench points per game. Mizzou also just had one of its best collective bench performances of the season as Trent Pierce and T.O. Barrett combined for 31 points, the most by the team’s reserves since the Cleveland State game back in November.

Generating production from its bench players is a weak point for LSU as the team ranks outside of the top-200 in bench scoring — a weakness that has become more exploitable with the injuries to Reed and Thomas. Winning the depth battle would remove one of the Bayou Bengals’ best ways to overcome Mizzou, which has been the better team this season.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 76 – LSU 70

LSU will enter Saturday’s game needing a win more badly than it has at any point in the season. The program is close to reaching full panic mode down in Baton Rouge as the chances of a recovery slip with each consecutive loss. That makes the Bayou Bengals a highly dangerous opponent for Mizzou, especially with the LSU faithful creating a hostile road environment.

But MU enters this matchup with plenty of momentum after a 3-1 start to SEC play featuring three quality wins, and Dennis Gates’ squad will also want to avoid another road letdown like the one they suffered at Ole Miss. Mizzou is playing its best basketball of the season, and the team’s improved defense will be key to the game’s outcome. I’m expecting a tight battle, but the Tigers from Columbia will find a way to prevail in the late moments of the contest for their fourth conference win.