2 NFL upset picks for Divisional Round in 2026 Playoffs

We made it to the Divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs! Congrats! This is arguably the best weekend of football every season. Our upset picks for last week were, how do I say this politely, crap. The Jags couldn’t keep Josh “Hero Ball” Allen from hero ballin, while the Chargers lack of offensive line remained a huge impediment to moving the ball forward. But, we’re going back to the well this week. Let’s see if that sweet underdog water is palatable this week.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)

The Patriots took it to the Chargers and their non-existent offensive line in the Wild Card round, but they’ll face an extremely hot Texans defense this week. So hot in fact, that Houston’s offense actually slowed down their defense against the Steelers in the first round. As long as the offense can hang onto the ball this week, they should be set up well to keep Drake Maye under pressure more often than not. Defense is the great equalizer and the Texans are peaking at the right time.

Houston is 2nd in DVOA, both against the pass and the run this year. They also rank first in EPA allowed per pass play, which is where Maye excels, ranking the Patriots as 1st in EPA per pass play. There is no doubt Maye has been outstanding, but an easy schedule helped his passing efficiency and he hasn’t proven he can beat a team like Houston through the air because he hasn’t played a team like Houston. Can he prove me wrong? Yes, yes he can, but many other good quarterbacks have been stopped cold int heir tracks by this defense.

The biggest question mark I see is the Texans offense. They were incredibly sloppy last week with turnovers, including multiple miscues on the QB-center exchange. This is something they should be able to clean up going into the most important game this franchise has had in a long while. Thankfully they have a much better offensive line than the Chargers and should be able to move the ball better than the Chargers last week.

Winner: Texans

Buffalo Bills (-1.5 )at Denver Broncos

The Broncos have the No. 1 seed and home field advantage, but are still slight underdogs to the Bills who just beat a good Jaguars team in the Wild Card round. It doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Broncos, who get extra rest and a home game at elevation, but Josh Allen is a difference maker to be sure.

Coming into this matchup I was leaning the Bills due to Allen’s superman ability, but with Allen not at 100% health, I’ve leaned back to the Broncos, who have everything going for them this weekend. Besides the rest and true home field advantage due to the elevation, the Broncos also have Sean Payton, who is 4-0 after a bye, which includes his Super Bowl win.

In the end it will likely come down to the Denver defense stopping a not 100% Allen. Just how hurt he is, is an open question. He took a beating against the Jaguars and his foot was already hurting coming into that matchup. His foot, hand, and lower leg all seem to be needing some attention this week. He will play, but the Denver defense is going to have success. They rank 3rd in rush defense DVOA and 8th in pass defense DVOA. Stopping James Cook while shadowing Allen is going to be key.

Sure, Allen could still do his hero act again this week, but this matchup is going to extend his abilities further than he’ll be able to reach.

Winner: Broncos