Drake Maye will have a big challenge this week against Houston.
If it’s true that defense wins championships, the Houston Texans should be feeling pretty good.
The divisional round includes a fascinating strength vs. strength matchup. The Texans defense is excellent. It allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this season. That group will face a New England Patriots offense led by Drake Maye, who along with Matthew Stafford are the two clear front-runners for NFL MVP. Even if Stafford wins MVP, it doesn’t take away from how good Maye has been in his second season.
The Patriots have had a huge breakout season, including their first playoff win since Tom Brady led a Super Bowl win over the Los Angeles Rams. They went 14-3 after winning just four games each of the past two seasons. For those who were reveling over the Patriots’ decline after a long dynasty, their dip didn’t last long.
The Texans have never experienced success like those great Patriots teams. Houston has never been to the AFC championship game in its 24 seasons of existence. The Texans are 0-6 in the divisional round and each loss was by at least seven points. They’re hoping this defense takes them further than they’ve ever been in franchise history.
Previous meeting this season
The Texans and Patriots did not play this season and have faced off just once since 2021. That was a 41-21 Texans win during the 2024 season.
Health update
The big name on the injury report for either team is Texans receiver Nico Collins, who suffered a concussion on Monday night and hasn’t practiced yet this week. He is unlikely to play, which is a big blow to Houston’s offense. Collins had 1,117 receiving yards in the regular season and no other Texans receiver had more than 525. The other big question was Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who is also coming off a concussion but returned to practice Wednesday and is expected to play.
The head coaches
This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans has completely turned around the Texans. He’s 32-19 in his three seasons as Houston’s head coach, and his influence is seen on the Texans’ top-ranked defense. Mike Vrabel could win NFL Coach of the Year for the second time in his career. His first one came when he was coaching the Titans, and he has done a magnificent job in his first season in New England. These are two of the best motivators and defensive minds among the NFL’s head-coaching ranks.
Key player for the Texans
Nico Collins is likely to miss Sunday’s game, and the Texans aren’t a top-end offense even with Collins in the lineup, Houston will need someone to step up. Last week it was rookie running back Woody Marks. Marks rushed for 112 yards in a wild-card win over the Steelers. Marks has had a solid rookie season but that was his first game of more than 74 rushing yards. The Patriots are strong against the run and the pass, but without Collins it seems likely the Texans will need to generate a run game to get their offense going. Marks will be the focal point of that effort.
Key player for the Patriots
There aren’t many weak spots for the Texans defense. But tight ends have been productive against them recently. Over the last seven weeks Houston has allowed a passer rating of 123.8 when tight ends are targeted, according to NBC Sports Boston. That’s the ninth highest mark in the NFL over that time. Hunter Henry had already been a big part of New England’s passing game, He was second on the Patriots with 768 receiving yards in the regular season and he led the team with seven receiving touchdowns. He scored the only Patriots touchdown in the wild-card round. He will be involved often on Sunday.
Betting market watch
The Patriots opened as 2.5-point home favorites at many sportsbooks, but the line has moved to -3 across the board, with a few -3.5s even popping up. Houston WR Nico Collins has yet to practice due a concussion suffered against the Steelers last week, and could miss the game. Drake Maye had some concerning mistakes in last week's win against the Chargers -- was it a sign of things to come or a blip in what's been a potential MVP campaign? C.J. Stroud also didn't inspire confidence last week against the Steelers (five fumbles), but does have more playoff experience than Maye. Houston's defense is good enough to win this game, but I think they come up a bit short without Collins. — Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
Prediction
The Texans defense is fierce. They’re going to keep the game low scoring (so will Houston’s offense, unfortunately for them), and they’ll try to pull it out late by forcing a few key mistakes. That’s where Drake Maye should prevail. Maye is already one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and he should be able to produce some big plays against a defense that doesn’t give up much. The Texans would have a much better chance to win if Nico Collins was available, but that’s unlikely. Without Collins, the Texans’ offense is in trouble.
Patriots 16, Texans 9
Category: General Sports
