Jaguars have been coached to take the ball away
The Buffalo Bills are currently +1 in the turnover margin for the 2025 NFL season, which isn’t bad by any means — but it is a far cry from their usual positive margin under head coach Sean McDermott. When it comes to giveaways, Buffalo is pretty average, tied with the Tennessee Titans at 15th most. While the Bills aren’t giving the ball away like candy, their five losses account for 12 of their total 19 giveaways.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking away the ball more this season than anyone but the Chicago Bears. They’ve racked up a healthy nine fumble recoveries and an incredible 22 interceptions. Even adjusted with rate data, the Jaguars are the fourth-best team in the league when it comes to interceptions. Let’s take a look at some of those turnovers to see if Buffalo has a chance of avoiding catastrophe.
Methodology
Yeah, I get it. Football fans don’t care so much about these sections, but for transparency here’s what I did. I looked at All-22 film on all 22 of the Jaguars’ interceptions. I made a chart of common factors that might influence an interception. The full chart of my notes is below.
In some way, there will always be subjectivity. For instance, in interception number six I credit the quarterback as partially to blame, as the ball was thrown behind the receiver. Why did I say this?
It’s easier to see the trajectory with a video, but none of the angles captured that perfectly anyway, which is why I used this interception as my illustration of the point. With no perfect angle at where the ball was heading, I based my judgement in part by body mechanics. The receiver was turning their body backward in anticipation of the ball, which is a good indicator they saw it and it was going to be behind.
Last thought on methodology here is that in no way is the list intended to state the Jaguars have just been lucky. In this particular play, while the throw was behind, the defense had it read well enough where even an on-target pass might have had the same result.
Interception 5 – Devin Lloyd
I think this is almost 100% credit to linebacker Devin Lloyd here. He was spying the quarterback but even still I don’t think in most circumstances it’s a crazy idea to throw this ball. The pass seemed to be on target as well and would have been a highlight-reel play for the offense threading through a tight window. Lloyd’s spying ability got him moving very soon after the throw had been decided, and that’s a fantastic leap and extension to pluck the ball out of the air.
Interception 10 – Devin Lloyd again
Lloyd tied for the team lead this season with five interceptions, and he generally seems to create havoc in the middle of the field. You’ll see I compared this to another one from Lloyd. Often tasked with keeping an eye in that zone, Lloyd was quick to respond to what he saw to get into position to take the ball away.
One of my primary conclusions from this review was that I hope Josh Allen and Joe Brady are making a plan to account for Lloyd.
Interception 17 – WTF?
Overall, I think the Jaguars’ defense deserves a ton of credit. That said, sometimes the quarterback has most of the control over the result. Like this play. Is it a throwaway that wasn’t actually thrown away? Is it a whole lot of faith that the receiver will speed up and fight for this ball in near-miraculous fashion? Darned if I know. Regardless of the thought process though, this was a bad throw.
I have this play highlighted because I want to reinforce that Josh Allen will be able to influence the outcome with sound decisions.
The Final Straw
There’s no reason to discredit the Jaguars for their ability to take the ball away. Several interceptions looked like they did enough film study to see the play before it happens, which would fall on coaching. There was a lot of good reaction time and solid play on film. The defense knew their roles in the zones and executed.
Bills fans will recognize a lot of the plays, because we’ve seen the same coaching to take the ball away in the Sean McDermott era.
Table and notes
| Interception # | Pressure | Credit to defense | Tipped by D | Tipped by O | Bad throw | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | x | |||||
| 2 | x | x | ||||
| 3 | x | overthrow | Pressure at end of play | |||
| 4 | x | x | Great play by entirety of defense. Tight coverage | |||
| 5 | x | Incredible concentration, reach and grab by Lloyd | ||||
| 6 | x | Behind | Defender still might have had it if thrown well. Would have been harder adjustment | |||
| 7 | x | x | Arm hit while throwing and turned into duck | |||
| 8 | x | Bobbled and dropped by receiver | ||||
| 9 | x | Lloyd looks for man coming into zone and starts moving to cover before Purdy throws. Not credited as a bad throw, but bad decision by Purdy and good coverage by Lloyd | ||||
| 10 | x | Similar to above but compressed at goal line. Mahomes made a faster decision, and Lloyd a little harder to diagnose as he feigned blitz and was closer to pile | ||||
| 11 | x | A little late | Decent pass rush but didn’t impact QB. Throw a bit late for a timing play | |||
| 12 | x | Looks like good film study. Defender broke on the ball immediately like they recognized the play. Beat receiver to the ball | ||||
| 13 | overthrow | |||||
| 14 | x | Devin Lloyd faked blitz, shaded back and reacted very quickly to ball in air | ||||
| 15 | x | Tight coverage, fought for ball and won | ||||
| 16 | Low, inside, terrible pass | Receiver at sideline and pass nowhere near him. Defensive back almost lucky they weren’t in better coverage | ||||
| 17 | x | Throwing away? Weird lob to no one | Hard to see a worse pass than this. Pressure there, but not a major factor. QB lobbed ball up with no clear target. Trying to throw it away maybe but why in bounds? Hoping receiver would just… figure it out? | |||
| 18 | x | Overthrow | Bad throw, but defender did good job coming to it | |||
| 19 | x | X | Coverage is great, but mostly on QB. Stared at receiver whole time and threw it despite defense being right there. Terrible decision | |||
| 20 | x | Just a great read by defender. Broke on the route and snatched it away | ||||
| 21 | x | Hail Mary jump ball and defense came down with it. Credit for effective pass rush | ||||
| 22 | x | x | Pass impacted by pressure (short throwing motion after stepping up from pressure) but horrible pass |
Category: General Sports
