Letting Sam Darnold Go Was a Big Mistake by the Vikings

It may be the most obvious and defining statement about the Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 season, but it’s worth saying loud and clear: letting Sam Darnold go was a massive blunder by Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings’ Front Office. Yes, it’s a whole lot easier to make that assessment with the benefit of hindsight, but looking back on the decision, not knowing how McCarthy would fare, was there not a strong case for extending Darnold that the Vikings either ignored or downplayed based on their faith in McCarthy?

Let’s take a closer look.

A Bird in Hand

The Vikings knew what they had in Sam Darnold after a season in Minnesota. Darnold’s jump start of his career as a starter while surprising to many, was not fluky. It wasn’t perfect either. Darnold struggled when facing pressure, but he did pretty much everything else well and with some consistency. It wouldn’t have been surprising either if Darnold benefitted by another year in Minnesota, with greater rapport with receivers and better command of the scheme. And if the Vikings were able to plug some of the holes in their interior offensive line and get Christian Darrisaw back, so much the better.

The Vikings also could have afforded the same contract Darnold signed with Seattle. Indeed, the Vikings are said to have offered Darnold a similar contract, but Darnold was also told that McCarthy was their quarterback of the future. And so he signed with the Seahawks. That contract has salary cap hits of $13.4 million in 2025, $33.9 million in 2026, and $41.9 million in 2027. Had the Vikings told Darnold he’s their guy going forward, it would’ve been an easy decision for Darnold to extend with the Vikings.

Darnold led the Seahawks and their top defense to the top seed in the NFC this season. Had the Vikings pushed their chips in on Darnold, the Vikings may well have been in the same position as the Seahawks and a legitimate contender to win it all.

What Was the Basis for the Vikings Faith in McCarthy?

When the Vikings decided Sam Darnold wasn’t the future, resulting in Darnold signing with the Seahawks, J.J. McCarthy had one half of a preseason game of experience and one season-ending injury. The Vikings’ coaching staff had worked with McCarthy to improve his fundamentals during the 2024 offseason and Kevin O’Connell said several times that he had a detailed development plan for McCarthy. That plan included development milestones McCarthy needed to complete before he would be considered ready to start an NFL game.

Shortly before it was known McCarthy would be out for the season, Kevin O’Connell said McCarthy would get some first team reps for the remainder of training camp following McCarthy’s preseason game. That didn’t happen as McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus tear in light duty against the Raiders. McCarthy’s injury prevented his gaining practice reps over the course of the season, effectively ending his rookie year development.

It would seem unlikely that the Vikings felt that McCarthy wasn’t ready to replace Darnold as the starter given that Kevin O’Connell was still talking about McCarthy’s fundamental problems a season later, and McCarthy hadn’t shown the ability to layer the ball, in addition to the normal lack of experience young quarterbacks have. We never really heard where McCarthy was vis-a-vis the development milestones O’Connell had established for him his rookie year.

Apparently there was enough doubt about McCarthy’s development for the Vikings to make competitive offers to both Darnold and Daniel Jones, but they also made it clear to both that McCarthy was the future in Minnesota.

Bottom line, there was nothing substantial enough about where McCarthy was prior to his meniscus injury to suggest McCarthy was ready to be the quality starter the Vikings obviously thought he would be given their win-now approach to free agency. The Vikings spent the second-most of any team in free agency.

Was it simply because McCarthy was a first-round pick? What else could it be? Did McCarthy regress in his year two development? Was it simply the belief that O’Connell would make McCarthy great just as he did with Darnold? O’Connell has gotten more from veteran quarterbacks he’s worked with, but has yet to get anything from rookie quarterbacks under his wing. In fact, at this point neither Jaren Hall, J.J. McCarthy, or Max Brosmer have been remotely close to being a quality starter. There were some rumors from inside the Vikings organization that Brosmer could be another Brock Purdy, but those rumors proved to be completely off the mark.

Whatever the case, the assessments made by the Vikings were clearly optimistic at best and lacking in substance. That has proven costly for the Vikings franchise, whatever the future of J.J. McCarthy at this point.

What was the Vikings’ Assessment of Sam Darnold?

Sam Darnold had a career-altering season with the Vikings and finished a top-ten quarterback in the league. He struggled at times under pressure, particularly in the playoff game against the Rams, but clearly the Vikings felt the interior offensive line needed to be upgraded otherwise they would not have paid Ryan Kelly and Will Fries and spent their top draft pick on Donovan Jackson.

Wouldn’t Darnold improve with better pass protection? Might Darnold improve in big game situations with more experience? Darnold had not been involved in any meaningful playoff-deciding game before his year with the Vikings. Was there something else the Vikings didn’t like about Darnold? There really wasn’t much to critique about Darnold’s game outside of his performance at times under pressure, and he was also an excellent fit for O’Connell’s scheme- much better than McCarthy turned out to be so far.

And at just over $30 million/year AAV, Darnold would’ve been an excellent value relative to other veteran quarterbacks at his performance level. The Vikings could’ve upgraded the offensive line as they did, but would’ve had to pass on a Jonathan Allen, if they had extended Darnold. I doubt Allen’s absence would’ve had a big impact on the Vikings defense this season.

Big Missed Opportunity

The Vikings could’ve simply came to the obvious conclusion: that Sam Darnold was everything we hoped he’d be and more, and earned the starting job and extension as a franchise quarterback. It was unexpected and it puts J.J. McCarthy on an extended development program- potentially with a new QB-needy team. Things happen.

Having a top ten quarterback with many prime years remaining is worth a lot more than an unproven first-round pick. And the Vikings could’ve have extended Darnold at a discount as other teams questioned how well Darnold would perform outside of Minnesota.

The Vikings could have signed Darnold to the same three-year deal he signed with Seattle and still have the option to trade either Darnold or McCarthy at some point depending on performance. Ultimately the opportunity cost would’ve been maybe a Jonathan Bullard instead of Jonathan Allen and no Javon Hargrave or Ryan Kelly next year.

Vikings Face a More Uncertain Future at Quarterback

J.J. McCarthy’s poor performance this season combined with his injury history pretty much require the Vikings to sign a bona fide starter next season. It would be irresponsible not to. Someone like Malik Willis or trade for Mac Jones, neither of whom will come cheap and neither of which are guaranteed to be as good as Darnold and could easily be worse. Signing a decent free agent will also likely require at least an open competition for the starting job or perhaps being named the starter. Given everything McCarthy needs to work on this offseason, it would seem unlikely that McCarthy would be in pole position for the starting job.

Best case, the Vikings hope for another 2024 Sam Darnold type they hope can be a quality starter and a top ten quarterback. But they could find that a Mac Jones or Malik Willis has a lower ceiling and so does McCarthy. And they could find themselves outbid for Willis and the 49ers unwilling to trade Jones for anything reasonable.

We’ll see.

But had the Vikings extended Sam Darnold, they’d likely be hosting a playoff game next week and maybe even have the top seed. They’d also have the quarterback position figured out for at least the next couple seasons.

That needs to be part of the assessment of Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah going forward.