USC at No. 2 Michigan College Basketball Preview

KenPom projects the Michigan Wolverines to win the Big Ten by two games. Torvik gives them over a 50% chance to win the conference outright. Latest betting odds have Michigan at -190 to take the regular season crown. After seeing this team steamroll everyone in its path, there is no surprise that hardware is now the expectation, though a lot can happen over the next 18 (well, 19) games.

Big Ten play resumes with a visit from the Southern California Trojans, who get the unenviable Ann Arbor-East Lansing road trip pairing to begin 2026. USC is 12-1 this season with wins over Seton Hall, Boise State, Arizona State, and Oregon, but did fall to Washington at home in the December conference slate. Against a top-40 KenPom squad, the focus cannot drop now, though Michigan is a big favorite yet again.

Southern California (12-1, 1-1) at No. 2 Michigan (12-0, 2-0)

Date & Time: Friday, Jan. 2, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Peacock

Michigan was undefeated against the Pac-12 newcomers last season, including sweep in Los Angeles, coincidentally right after New Year’s as well. It was a back-and-forth affair that was tied with seven minutes remaining, but the Wolverines ended the game on a 20-9 run with all five starters reaching double-figures. They followed it up with a win over No. 22 UCLA a few days later, with this pair of games feeling like the official start of the Dusty May era.

Two Stats to Watch

Michigan 100-Point Games: 7 (gotta be 1st)

Auburn, Gonzaga, La Salles, whoever — Michigan has crushed nearly everyone it has faced. USC is the fourth-best team on the schedule to date, though, and one has to wonder if the latest scoring rampage will slow down at all once the heart of the Big Ten schedule arrives. Only one opponent has crossed the century mark against the Trojans (and needed triple overtime to do so), meaning Friday is another chance to turn some heads.

Truthfully, Michigan should be able to stick to its gameplan and find plenty of success. The Trojans hold opponents to under 30% shooting behind the arc, but are much less successful defending twos. The home side will have the athleticism advantage at nearly every spot, and expect a ton of transition looks as usual. There will be some switching on the perimeter, meaning the Wolverines can find some lanes and passing opportunities if they play smart.

While this defense does not have elite turnover numbers, USC will look to fuel some transition opportunities of its own, especially knowing its task on the other end. That leads to gambles that very well may result in blowbys and dunks, as if the Wolverines need any help. 100 points is a tough ask against a quality opponent, but I can certainly see it happening again, especially with the expected pace.

USC Foul Rate: 53.3% (1st)

The USC offense is more good than great, sitting 38th per KenPom, with the 63rd-highest effective field goal rate. While these numbers do not jump off the page, they come with some interesting undertones. The Trojans generate plenty of assists (84th), but shoot few threes (outside the top 250), instead choosing to attack the rim and take the freebies at the line.

I am not sure how well this will work against a Michigan defense that really does not foul. With Rodney Rice out, the Trojans are getting the majority of their production from Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar, with the latter leading the team in free throw attempts. The Wolverines will not fear Ausar’s bully ball, and the Utah transfer has been much less productive against Big Ten opposition, so limiting his impact is a reasonable proposition.

The lanky Baker-Mazara did little in Auburn’s win over Michigan last March, but is scoring nearly twice as much this season, in part due to a significant uptick in three-point attempts. He is the only Trojan to consistently shoot from deep, and he should be at the top of the scouting report as a legitimate threat on a national scale. Baker-Mazara and friends are going to try to get downhill often; welcome to Big Ten play.