TGL 2026: Why our PGA pro is betting on another Rory McIlroy loss in their season opener

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. -- The more things change, the more they stay the same. Last week, Billy Horschel drained a 37-foot eagle putt on the closing hole in the opening match of Season 2 to defeat the New York Golf Club, just like last year’s TGL’s championship. I know the opening tilt was matched up against the NFL on Sunday, but for those who watched, they witnessed a classic contest. Billy Horschel proved once again why the SoFi Center is the house he has built! Xander and the entire NYGC team must be getting tired of watching Horschel hit massive putts to beat them. In the win, Atlanta Drive proved once again they control The Hammer narrative, and everyone else is playing for second when it comes to doubling down.

The first week of TGL takes off quickly. Match 2 is on Friday, Jan. 2. Boston Common Golf takes on the Los Angeles Golf Club. Two polar-opposite teams from Season 1, Los Angeles finished the season with four wins and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Boston had zero wins in Season 1! A tough run through Q1, Boston was the only team with four major champions on their roster. Even though the Beantown boys finished last, the books still have them as one of the SoFi favorites for Season 2. Will Boston collect their first TGL match on Friday? Or will Los Angeles rack up another win against their cross-country rivals?

Read The Line has Los Angeles GC as one of our preseason favorites to win the SoFi Cup. The combination of Tommy Fleetwood’s and Collin Morikawa's accuracy, Sahith Theegala's long game and Justin Rose’s clutch closing ability makes them a difficult team to beat. LAGC won more points than any other team in Season 1 (32) and killed it in Singles play, earning 13 points throughout the first campaign. Boston Common is starting the season like Atlanta Drive with a substitution. Young star Michael Thorbjornsen fits right in with the regular-season driving distance leaders from last year. Thorbjornsen is a New England native who can rip it. Alongside Rory McIlroy, I believe LAGC will be hitting a bunch of first approach shots into the green.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

RELATED: Simulator company offers new way to bet on skills-based competitions—with cash payouts

Match 2 order of play and singles matchups:

• Los Angeles GC (+100): Justin Rose, Collin Morikawa, Sahith Theegala
• Boston Common Golf (-125): Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Michael Thorbjornsen
• Los Angeles GC has the honor.
• Justin Rose versus Rory McIlroy (Holes 10, 13)
• Collin Morikawa versus Keegan Bradley (Holes 11, 14)
• Sahith Theegala versus Michael Thorbjornsen (Holes 12, 15)
• Team managers: Carl Smith (LAGC), Niall O'Connor (BCG)
• Sitting out: Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott (BCG) and Tommy Fleetwood (LAGC)

Oh! ​Stinger​ and ​Cenote ​were awesome. Watching two professionals hit the rock outcropping off the tee on Stinger had the SoFi Center cheering. Then both Gotterup and Young had to hit wild, curving shots, which is exactly what makes TGL interesting. Cameron Young's 50-yard hook approach around a rock tower and over the grandstand gives me hope that more wild holes will be created. The fans inside the SoFi Center were loving the new designs. The buildup as the ball rolled down the huge hill on Cenote was similarly entertaining. I'm happy to report that those two holes are back on the scorecard, and TGL plans to use them in every match. There's the addition of the two "team holes" along with Gil Hanse's Stone & Steeple. This unique New England design might give Michael Thorbjornsen an edge as he essentially gets to play two Boston-style holes.

Course breakdown for Match 2:

• The total scorecard yardage for tonight's design is 6,113 yards.
• LAGC's team hole, Showtime is number 9.
• BCG's team hole, Storrowed is number 4.
• Both team holes in this match were used in Season 1: Storrowed was called Serpent, and Showtime was called Hang Loose.
• Three new Season 2 holes are featured in this match: Stone & Steeple (Hole 2, Par 5), Stinger (Hole 6, Par 4), and Cenote (Hole 12, Par 3).
• Average lengths: Par 3s (187 yards), Par 4s (427 yards), and Par 5s (608 yards).
• The three par 4s in Triples average 482 yards in length. The shortest one (Stinger 416 yards) forced two penalty strokes in Match 1, and neither tee shot successfully made it past the low-hanging rock.
• Hole 1 (Alpine) was played in 15 matches during Season 1. It was won seven times; I look for a quick start to the points in Match 2.
• Yardage Book

Los Angeles Golf Club beat Boston Common Golf 6-2 in Season 1. Seven of the holes they played in their first match are the same as tonight. LAGC started that match quickly as they won the first three holes and four of the first five, grabbing a 4-0 lead. It was 5-0 entering Singles play. Keegan Bardley won two H2H holes over Justin Rose, but in the end, it did not matter.

TGL Are TGL simulators accurate and why are players struggling in the bunkers? Rory McIlroy has answers

LAGC finished the year with four wins and one overtime loss. With nine regular-season points, they were the number one seed going into the playoffs. The reason LA is so good: accuracy! Los Angeles finished Season 1 second in short-putt efficiency (77 percent), scrambling (74 percent) and driving accuracy (74 percent). Keep the ball in play on the simulator screen and inside the turntable on the Greenzone, and your team will win points. Conversely, BCG ranked last in scrambling (32 percent) and short-putt efficiency (55 percent), the two most important TGL success categories. Having watched most of the matches from inside the arena, scoring from close range is the No. 1 priority. Match 1 on Sunday reinforced this point as ADGC was better around the green than their counterparts.

Our scorecard for match 2 seriously favors accuracy. One interesting example is Boston's Storrowed hole, which has two very thin fairway targets—one off the tee and the second for laying up on this par 5 bordered by the Charles River on one side and Storrow Drive on the other. The average GIR rate on the Match 2 holes is only 62 percent. A steady diet of Rose and Morikawa on approach with Theegala's scoring ability has me leaning toward the LAGC side.

Justin Rose had a very strong 2025 with a FedEx Cup playoff win at the St. Jude and a stellar Ryder Cup. Collin Morikiawa and Sahith Theegala were not as lucky in their 2025 campaigns. Morikawa switched caddies more times than the SoFi Center has switched roofs. Theegala dealt with the injury bug for most of the year and missed the playoffs. Sahith seemed healthy toward the end of the season and started to play better. He's got too much talent not to succeed in 2026. Boston's boys are led by Rory McIlroy, who had a career year. Keegan Bradley's only 2025 disappointment came when he was off the course, and Michael Thorbjornsen has elite potential, finishing his fall with three top 15 finishes in six starts.

Similar to Sunday, it will definitely come down to hammer play, and I think that's where Los Angeles GC gets it done. LAGC was six points better than BCG in hammer differential in Season 1. LA was the second-best hammer team (behind ADGC) while Boston was one of the worst. We saw on Hole 9 this past Sunday how a Ben Helmrath (ADGC Manager) hammer turned the tide of another Atlanta Drive match. Strategy is key, and Los Angeles has proved they know how to use the double down.

Team Boston Common Golf is favored on the odds board. Pay attention to these H2Hs, I think the last six holes are going to be very entertaining...

• Rose versus McIlroy: I love this matchup from a storyline perspective. Power versus precision. Don't forget these two faced off eight months ago for the Green Jacket in a playoff! The Spear favors Rory as he can reach the green in two. This hole has been won 10 times in 15 matches, and Rory will continue that trend. Both Rory and Rosey can reach the green on Bluebonnet. McIlroy will be in between clubs, while a smooth driver gives Rose the edge. These two split their H2H matchup when Rose takes Hole 13.

• Morikawa versus Bradley: Modern-day ball-striking versus one of the tour's veteran flushers. Both Keegan and Collin hit fairways and GIRs. They will need to on Hole 11 (Loot on the Line). Another test that is seldom tied, I like Keegan's extra length and wedge play here. For their second matchup hole, I'm going the other way. Morikawa is still one of the best mid-iron players on the planet. He'll stick it close on Hole 14 and win it. Watch out for hammer action here as no hole has seen more orange flags (12) than On the Rocks.

• Theegala versus Thorbjornsen: These two start on Cenote. My instincts were correct on this new design. Betting a winner here is a true roll of the dice. Both Xander and Billy hit drives up the huge slope and rolled out to completely different places on the green. That ride on the roll down relies more on TGL luck than touting. Theegala was ranked second in Singles holes won in Season 1 (6-1-3). Sahith had a couple of key late H2H victories. Long after the match is over, Theegala hits the green in two with his accurate long game and gets one more point for LAGC.

Match 2 is on ESPN Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET. Match 1 had one hell of an ending, so the SoFi Center will be excited for a Friday evening tilt. Speaking of the start time, the Sunday afternoon crowd was subdued. The night matches were louder than the afternoon tilts last year. A couple of pops, and people start yelling more. This won't be the 1980s Lakers-Celtics rivalry, but Boston has a ton of pressure to win, and LA knows they can take home the SoFi Trophy in Season 2. Both teams will be fired up, along with the weekend crowd.

• Los Angeles GC (+100)

*- odds from FanDuel

RELATED: The Best Golf Gambling Games, explained

Keith Stewartis a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder ofRead The Line,the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletterhereand raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found onSportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter@readtheline.