Ole Miss and Miami are riding high as they prepare for their College Football semifinal clash.
Ole Miss vs. Miami predictions: Expert picks and odds for 2025 CFP semifinal at Fiesta Bowl originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
No. 6 Ole Miss will meet No. 10 Miami in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Thursday, Jan. 8.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. The game will be televised on ESPN.
Ole Miss (13-1) stunned No. 3 Georgia 39-34 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl behind an incredible effort from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who led a second-half comeback with 362 passing yards and two TDs. Pete Golding – who replaced Lane Kiffin after the coach left for LSU – has a chance to lead the Rebels to the CFP championship game for the first time in school history.
Miami (12-2) made a program statement with a 24-14 victory against No. 2 Ohio State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Beck averages 120.5 passing yards with two TDs and no interceptions in two playoff games. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have led a nasty defense that has allowed 8.5 points through two playoff games. Mario Cristobal has a chance to push the Hurricanes to their first national championship game since 2003 – which was also at the Fiesta Bowl.
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Here is an early look at the betting odds and our pick for the winner of the Fiesta Bowl. Odds courtesy of Caesars:
College Football Playoff semifinal odds
- Spread: Miami -3
- Over/under: 52
- Moneyline: Miami -160, Ole Miss +135
Ole Miss is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and both games were against Georgia. The Rebels were 5-1 S/U in games with a spread of seven points or less. The Hurricanes are 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS when favored by seven points or less.
College Football Playoff semifinal pick, prediction
Miami's pass rush wrecked the Ohio State game plan in the CFP quarterfinals. Bain has four of the Hurricanes' 12 sacks in the playoff. Mesidor has three sacks in those two games, and they have combined for 26 pressures.
Chambliss, however, presents a different challenge with his escapability outside the pocket. That pass rush will have to land, and Chambliss made Georgia pay with receivers Harrison Wallace III and De'Zhaun Stribling. How many risks will Chambliss take against a Miami secondary that features Bryce Fitzgerald (6 INTs), Jakobe Thomas (5 INTs) and Keionte Scott (2 INTs), who had the game-turning pick six against the Buckeyes?
The other piece is Kewan Lacy, a tough running back who has played through a shoulder injury the last two games. The Rebels are a different challenge for Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman.
Miami will attack Georgia with Mark Fletcher Jr., a tough inside runner who will try to attack the middle with defensive tackles Zxavian Harris and Will Echoles. Sunatrine Perkins and Princewell Umanmielen add to that pass rush. Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels will challenge the Ole Miss secondary in the intermediate passing game.
How will Beck handle the opportunity to get to the CFP championship game? Beck has thrown just one interception since the 26-20 loss to SMU on Nov. 1, and he has great protection from an offensive line led by Francis Mauigoa.
Miami has not allowed more than 26 points in a game this season – but they have not faced a quarterback like Chambliss either. That is where this matchup will be decided. He passed for 300 or more yards in four of Ole Miss' last five games, and the Rebels are riding the same momentum wave as the Hurricanes. This makes for an almost impossible choice.
SN AWARDS: 2025 All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
College Football Playoff semifinal score prediction
Ole Miss 27, Miami 24
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