MC&J: Picks for Miami-Ohio State and the rest of the CFP quarterfinals

Bowls ATS: 12-16 (11-12 National, 1-4 B1G – 11 games pending)

Season ATS: 144-130 (76-69 National, 68-61 B1G)

It’s hard to believe we are getting close to the end of the college football season.

It felt like just yesterday it was August and we were all getting ready for the Texas-Ohio State game. This isn’t quite goodbye when it comes to my picks for this season, but it’s getting closer to midnight since after these four games there will only be three CFP games left to be played.

Lately there has been some tough losses for MC&J. New Mexico took Minnesota to overtime but missed pushing by half a point. The same can be said about the BYU game since they won by 4 and were 4.5-point favorites. At least someone was on our side with the San Diego State pick in the wild New Mexico Bowl on Saturday night.

Here’s hoping to some more good luck in the remaining picks we have in the bowls and the playoff.

College Football Playoff quarterfinal games

Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (FL) v. No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5) – Wednesday 12/31 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Ohio State heads to Dallas on Wednesday night to play in the Cotton Bowl for the third straight year, where they will be meeting up with the Miami Hurricanes, who earned their spot in the quarterfinals after outlasting Texas A&M 10-3 in College Station just before Christmas.

This marks the sixth meeting all-time between the programs, and the first since 2011. Of course the most memorable game between the Buckeyes and the Hurricanes came at the end of the 2002 season when Ohio State upset a heavily favored Miami team 31-24 in the BCS National Championship Game.

The Buckeyes enter this game coming off their first setback of the season a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State fans are hoping history repeats itself since last year the Buckeyes entered the playoff coming off a 13-10 loss and went on to win four straight games to claim the national title. The mood is a little different surrounding the Buckeyes this year since they went toe-to-toe with an undefeated Indiana team.

What Miami brings to the table is an experienced quarterback and athleticism all over the field. Carson Beck is one of just three active FBS quarterbacks with at least 10,000 yards passing, but the Georgia transfer can get rattled at times, as evidenced by an ugly performance against the Aggies and a game where he threw four interceptions in a loss to Louisville earlier this year.

Following a game where they allowed the Hoosiers to record five sacks, Ohio State’s offensive line will have to tighten up their play if they want to win on Wednesday night. Miami has a strong defensive line with Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor causing havoc throughout the season. The job of containing those two got a little tougher with the news that guard Tegra Tshabola is injured and won’t play in the game, leaving Gabe VanSickle and Joshua Padilla to fill in.

Even though the Hurricanes have loads of talent on each side of the football, this game is going to come down to experience. Ohio State has been in this position before, while Miami is making their first appearance in the College Football Playoff. Plus, head coach Mario Cristobal has had moments of questionable game management in the past.

Unlike in 2021 when Cristobal and Oregon beat the Buckeyes in Columbus, Ryan Day gets the better of his coaching counterpart and secures their spot in the Fiesta Bowl next week.

Ohio State 28, Miami (FL) 17

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon (-1.5) v. No. 4 Texas Tech – Thursday 1/1 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Dan Lanning has to feel like he has unfinished business to take care of.

Last year the Ducks entered the College Football Playoff undefeated and then were smoked in the Rose Bowl by Ohio State. This year Oregon had a glorified scrimmage in the first round, building a big lead on James Madison before the Dukes scored a few garbage time touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the score look more respectable and cover the spread.

Aside from a loss to Arizona State earlier this season, Texas Tech handled their business. Over their last four games, the Red Raiders allowed just 23 points, and two of those wins came against a good BYU squad.

Jacob Rodriguez is the unquestioned leader of the Texas Tech defense. The linebacker recorded 117 tackles, picked off four passes, and forced seven fumbles. While Rodriguez gets most of the attention, don’t sleep on David Bailey, who has 13.5 sacks this year.

For as good as the Red Raider defense has been this year, they haven’t seen a team quite like Oregon. Dante Moore has put himself in the conversation to be one of the first quarterbacks taken in the 2026 NFL Draft after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns this year.

The Ducks also have three running backs who have ran for over 500 yards on the ground in 2025. Oregon is also getting healthy at the right time, as wide receivers Gary Bryant Jr. and Dakorien Moore returned from injury for the James Madison game.

Much like Ohio State, Oregon’s only loss this season came to Indiana. Despite the Ducks now having Big Ten ties, I’m not convinced they are going to win this one. In a game that is going to come down to the defenses, I like Texas Tech just a little more with Rodriguez and Bailey. I think quarterback Behren Morton and the rest of the Red Raider offense is being underrated here a bit and they put the rest of the country on notice that they are for real.

Texas Tech 27, Oregon 23

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama v. No. 1 Indiana (-6.5) – Thursday 1/1 4:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Early on in their first round game against Oklahoma, Alabama looked dead in the water after falling behind 17-0. Then the Sooners remembered they were Chokelahoma and gave the game to the Crimson Tide. There’s no doubting Ty Simpson has talent, as evidenced by the 3,500 yards and 28 touchdowns he tossed this year. The problem is Alabama is one-dimensional. The Crimson Tide are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season.

If you weren’t already impressed with the job Curt Cignetti has done in just two years at Indiana before the Big Ten Championship Game, you should be after they beat Ohio State. We really are living in a world where the Hoosiers are the undisputed Big Ten champs. Now it’s time for Cignetti and Indiana to take the next step. Last year they lost to Notre Dame in the first round, and now they are the favorites to win it all.

I’m just not sure where Indiana’s weakness is. They have Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, two quality running backs in Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, and a defense that just won’t quit. About the only negative is defensive end Stephen Daley suffered a season-ending injury while celebrating after winning the Big Ten title.

Unlike Oklahoma, Indiana has a killer instinct. If Alabama falls behind 17-0 in this one they are cooked. There is always concern about the Heisman winner not living up to expectations after winning the award, but Mendoza feels like a different cat. A rematch between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes feels inevitable and Alabama won’t be able to do anything to stop it.

Indiana 31, Alabama 20

Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss v. No. 3 Georgia (-6.5) – Thursday 1/1 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Ole Miss was able to get their feet under them in their first game without head coach Lane Kiffin, easily defeating Tulane 41-10 in their CFP first round game. Now the Rebels will look to avenge their only loss of the season when they take on Georgia. The Bulldogs beat Ole Miss 43-35 in the middle of October in Athens in a game they led 35-26 before Georgia reeled off 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.

The difference in the first game came down to running the football. Ole Miss couldn’t get it done on the ground, while Georgia rolled up 221 yards rushing. All that and Gunner Stockton threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns. Stockton has been inconsistent throughout the year, but he doesn’t make mistakes, throwing only five interceptions.

This isn’t quite the buzzsaw of a Georgia team that we became accustomed to during their back-to-back title run. Don’t get it twisted though, the Bulldogs are still the better team. Even though Ole Miss won comfortably in Oxford against Tulane a couple weeks ago, I was all that impressed with the Rebels. I

t also doesn’t help that running back Kewan Lacy is banged up, which will put more pressure on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The dreams of the Rebels of sticking it to Kiffin by winning it all after he took the LSU job come crashing down in New Orleans on the first evening of 2026.

Georgia 34, Ole Miss 21