Into the home stretch with a top-five finish in sight
The Commanders got some help from the teams near them in the draft order last week to set up an exciting finish to the race for draft position.
Most importantly, two of the three teams that were two losses ahead of them won their Week 17 games to fall within striking distance. The New York Giants beat the hapless Raiders, as expected. But the jewel in the Week 17 crown was the 3-12 Browns’ surprise victory over the 9-6 Steelers. That upset win opens up two avenues for the Commanders to overtake the Browns in the final week of games.
If the Browns beat the Bengals and the Commanders fail to defeat the Eagles, Washington will overtake Cleveland in the draft order. Alternatively, it is also possible for the Commanders to overtake the Browns via the Strength of Schedule (SOS) tiebreak, if both teams lose or with this weekend. But doing so will require the right combination of wins by Browns’ opponents and losses by Commanders’ opponents. Wins by all of the Commanders’ divisional rivals in Week 17 made that a little more challenging. But there is still a realistic possibility of getting past Cleveland, even if they finish with the same W-L record as Washington.
The Commanders also got all the help they needed from the teams behind them to contain the damage if they do upset the Eagles in the season finale. The New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals were hanging on Washington’s shoulder at 5-10 heading into Week 17. A victory over the Cowboys would have dropped the Commanders behind the Saints, with a possibility of falling behind the Bengals as well, if both teams had lost their games. Instead, the Saints extended their winning streak to four games with a 34-26 victory over the Titans and the Bengals made it two in a row with a 37-14 beatdown of the Cardinals.
As a result of the Saints’ and Bengals’ wins, the Commanders’ seventh overall position in the draft order is now safe. With the next three teams behind them sitting at 6-10, it is no longer possible for the Commanders to be overtaken from behind, even if they win their final game. Assuming at least one QB and perhaps an OT or two are taken ahead of them, the Commanders are now assured of the opportunity to select one of the top five defensive prospects or offensive weapons in the draft class.
Entering the final stretch of the 2025 season, the Commanders have literally nothing to lose and everything to gain in the battle for draft position. If everything goes their way in the final week, they could rise as high as second overall in the draft order. But doing so would require a miraculous sequence of upsets. More realistically, a fifth overall finish – which seemed like a pipe dream last week – is now firmly within the realm of plausibility. Rising that high should put them in the range of the elite defenders in the draft class, and could even open the door to blockbuster trade opportunities if the right player falls to their pick.
If the Season Ended Today
Here is how the draft order would shape up if the season ended today, courtesy of Tankathon:
The 2-14 Raiders currently hold the first pick in the draft. A win over the hobbled Kansas City Chiefs would bring their final record to 3-14, at which point they would still pick ahead of the Commanders. This sets the Commanders’ ceiling at second overall in the draft order.
Any position after first overall is still in play, from a mathematical perspective; although some outcomes are exceedingly unlikely. A win by any of the five teams currently ahead of them, except the Raiders, will advance the Commanders one position in the draft order if they don’t upset the Eagles. And there remains a slim chance of getting past the Browns via the SOS tiebreak, even if both teams lose.
Here is what it would take for the Commanders to advance anywhere from one to five places up the draft order in Week 18:
Sixth Overall – One Upset or SOS Help to Pass the Browns
If the Commanders end their season with a loss to the Eagles, any of the following Week 18 game results will advance them by one place in the draft order. Games are listed in descending order or likelihood, based on Vegas lines at the time of writing:
- 3-13 Giants beat 7-8-1 Cowboys (Cowboys -5.5)
- 4-12 Browns beat 6-10 Bengals (Bengals -7.5)
- 3-13 Cardinals beat 11-4 Rams (Rams -9.5)
- 3-13 Titans beat 12-4 Jaguars (Jaguars -10.5)
- 3-13 Jets beat 11-5 Bills (Bills -11.0)
Nobody said it would be easy. Nearly every opportunity to move up in the draft order requires at least one upset in the season finale. However, two of these outcomes are not wildly implausible.
The Giants-Cowboys matchup features interim head coach Mike Kafka making his case for a more secure contract with the G-Men. QB Jaxson Dart could also be auditioning for his next team if there is anything to NFL insider Ian Rapoport’s suggestion that New York could be considering trading their first-year QB. Meanwhile, with nothing to be gained from a Week 18 win, it is possible that the league’s most secure GM in Dallas will decide to rest the starters and preserve his team’s draft position.
The Browns are 7.5 point underdogs to the Bengals. The Bengals have gone 3-2 since Joe Burrow returned from injury in Week 13. However, all is not well in Cincinnati. Burrow’s recent comments have raised speculation about his future with the team and doubts the team’s commitment to provide the protection he requires to stay healthy. And speaking of pass protection, the Browns come into the game with the second ranked passing defense by dropback EPA (-0.075 EPA/play), led by All-Decade pass rusher Myles Garrett, who is chasing the official single season sack record, jointly held by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.
The Browns are coming off 13-6 upset of the Steelers, in which they held Aaron Rodgers to 168 yds and no TDs, with 2 sacks and a fumble. If their defense can keep Burrow off balance, they can give themselves a chance to make it two wins in a row.
Lastly, the Commanders can also advance over the Browns via the SOS tiebreak, even if the Browns lose to Cincinnati. Cleveland currently enjoys a 0.018 SOS advantage over Washington. A win or loss by a team’s opponent in isolation result’s in around a 0.004 change in SOS.
However, effects of opponent wins on an individual tiebreak between two teams are very complicated due to wins and losses against common opponents fully or partially cancelling each other out. Ordinarily, wins or losses by division rivals count double. But, this week all of the teams in the AFC North are involved in intra-division game, so the effects of wins and losses on SOS cancel each other out. And the Commanders need wins in their division for reasons other than SOS, as detailed above. So, we only really need to focus on non-shared opponents outside each team’s division.
The range of combinatorial possibilities is too large to break down into individual tiebreak scenarios. But the key point to remember is that we want Browns’ opponents to win and Commanders’ opponents to lose. A net gain of five losses by Commanders’ opponents and/or wins by Browns’ opponents should be enough for the Commanders to take the lead. That is close to as many as are on offer. So it will be tight. But if the right teams win and lose this week, it should be possible for the Commanders to squeak past the Browns in a tiebreak.
Fifth Overall – Two Plausible Upsets or One Upset with SOS Help
The Commanders just need two of the six Week 18 outcomes listed in the previous section to jump to fifth in the draft order. The most likely path for Washington to get to fifth overall is:
- Giants beat Cowboys
- Browns beat Bengals
They would have to get lucky, but it’s not like winning the lottery. Just two moderate upsets like we see on any given Sunday. There are also a multitude of other less likely scenarios to get us there, including winning the SOS tiebreak over a 4-13 Browns squad.
Fourth Overall – Three Upsets or Two with SOS Help
Getting to fourth overall remains possible, but we are starting to push the limits of plausibility.
In addition to Giants and Browns wins, this one requires one of the following upsets, which is somewhat harder to envision:
- Cardinals beat Rams
- Titans beat Jaguars
- Jets beat Bills
Alternatively, a Giants win plus an unlikely upset and SOS help to get past Cleveland would do it.
Either way, getting to fourth overall requires one of the worst teams in the NFL to beat a playoff contender. The Falcons did upset the Rams on Monday Night, but the teams we need to win on Sunday are worse than that.
Third Overall – Pray for a Miracle
In addition to Giants and Browns wins, or a Giants win and SOS help to overtake the Browns, getting to third overall will require not one, but two shock upsets in Week 18. Perhaps the Bills, Jaguars and Rams all decide to rest their starters for the final game while the Cardinals, Titans and Jets decide that a win is more important than draft position. That might be good for two of the wins the Commanders need.
I’m not saying that it can’t happen. Just that it won’t.
Second Overall – Forget About It
While mathematically possible, getting to second overall would require the following sequence of events to unfold over the weekend:
- Giants beat Cowboys
- Browns beat Bengals OR Commanders get SOS help to beat Browns in the tiebreak
- Cardinals beat Rams
- Titans beat Jaguars
- Jets beat Bills
I am prepared to go on record saying that this won’t happen.
Week 18 Rooting Guide
To take the hard work out of cheering for better draft position I have broken down the individual games which will help the Commanders in April.
All of the following projections are based on the Commanders losing to the Eagles. If they win on Sunday, they will pick seventh overall, no matter what happens in any other game.
Most Important Games
Wins by any of the teams in bold will move the Commanders one position ahead in the draft order. A straight flush of wins would see the Commanders pick second overall.
Giants (3-13) vs Cowboys (7-8-1) – A week ago, the Giants were in contention for the first pick in the draft. This week, they give the Commanders their best chance to move ahead in the draft order. On top of that, a Giants’ win ensures that the Cowboys have their second losing season in a row. Big Blue to the Rescue!
Browns (4-12) @ Bengals (6-10) – The Browns’ second ranked passing defense is motivated to ruin whatever remains of Joe Burrow’s time in Cincinnati. On offense, Shedeur Sanders is showing signs of growth. He and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins have enough firepower to get Cleveland the win if the defense can keep it close. Cheer for Myles Garrett to smash the single season sack record. Be Legendary!
Second Chance to Beat the Browns: A Browns’ win in this game provides the most direct path to get ahead of them in the draft order. However, a Browns’ loss is not necessarily the end of the road. A Bengals’ win lifts the Brown’s SOS by twice the amount of an ordinary opponent win, because the Bengals are a divisional opponent. At the same time, a Browns’ loss lowers Washington’s SOS, to further close the gap. Therefore, a Browns’ loss could actually help Washington to get ahead of them via the SOS tiebreak, if the Commanders get the additional help they need from other teams. So cheer for the Browns to win, but don’t kick the couch if they lose.
Cardinals (3-13) @ Rams (11-5) – The Cardinals are on an eight game losing streak, without Kyler Murray; and the Rams have only lost to playoff teams. Perhaps Jim Harbaugh will rest his starters, but with a current position at 6th seed in the playoff bracket, that doesn’t seem likely. I can’t think of any other reasons why the Cardinals might win this one, aside from the fact that we need it. Also, the tweety birds want other teams’ fans to cheer for them, they need a better slogan. Rise Up Red Sea!
Titans (3-13) @ Jaguars (12-4) – The Titans have won two of their last four games, including a Week 16 upset of the Kansas City Chiefs. Their late season revival owes a lot to rookie QB Cam Ward who is flashing signs of coming up to speed with the NFL game. Also don’t overlook the Titans’ secret weapon, NFL All-Purpose Yard/Punt Return Average leader Chimere Dike (1,957 APY, 17.7 YPR) who has taken two punt returns to the house this season. In addition to moving the Commanders up one spot in the draft, a Titans win also helps Washington win a tiebreak with the Browns, who were one of their opponents. Let’s hope for some big plays from the Titans’ emerging stars. Titan Up!
Jets (3-13) @ Bills (11-5) – Division matchups can produce unexpected results, particularly late in the season. Case in point, one of the Bills’ five losses this season was at the hands of the 3-7 Miami Dolphins. Perhaps the Jets can pull a win out of nowhere to cap their four game losing streak with a road win in Buffalo. J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!
Important Games
With the teams behind them safely in the rear-view mirror, there is now only one tie-break which could affect the Commanders’ draft position. If both the Commanders and Browns finish with the same W-L record this weekend, Washington will need help from other teams to win the SOS tiebreak. Wins by teams in bold will help the Commanders in this regard. Narrowing things down to only one important tiebreak this week greatly reduces the number games which can affect Washington’s draft position.
Raiders (2-14) vs Chiefs (6-10) – Both teams played Washington, so a win by one is offset by the other’s loss, cancelling out any effect on the Commanders’ SOS. The Raiders also played Cleveland, but the Chiefs did not. Therefore, a Raiders’ win will raise the Browns’ SOS. Just Win Baby!
Falcons (7-9) vs Saints (6-10) – The Falcons are a Commanders’ opponent. Neither team played Cleveland. A Falcons’ loss will lower the Commanders’ SOS to close the gap with the Browns. Who Dat Gon’ Beat Dem Saints? Nobody this Week!
Dolphins (7-9) @ Patriots (13-3) – Both teams played the Browns, so the outcome of this game has no effect on the Browns’ SOS. Only Miami played Washington, so a Dolphins’ loss lowers the Commanders’ SOS. Drake Maye for MVP!
Unimportant Games
Outcomes of these games can’t affect the tiebreak between Commanders and Browns. If you have an interest in any of these teams, feel free to cheer for whichever team you like without worrying about effects on the Commanders’ draft position, because there aren’t any.
Steelers (9-7) vs Ravens (8-8) – This is an NFC North divisional matchup, so a win by one team is cancelled out by the other team’s loss, resulting in no effect on the Browns’ SOS. Neither team played Washington either.
Seahawks (13-3) @ 49ers (12-4) – The Seahawks played Washington and the 49ers played Cleveland. Consequently, the effect of one team winning on Washington’s SOS is cancelled out by an equal and opposite effect of the other team losing on Cleveland’s SOS. A tie also has no effect on the tiebreak.
Broncos (13-3) vs Chargers (11-5) – Both teams played Washington. Neither played the Browns. There can be no net effect on Washington’s or Browns’ SOS.
Packers (9-6-1) @ Vikings (8-8) – Both teams played Commanders and Browns. There can be no net effect on either team’s SOS.
Bears (11-5) vs Lions (8-8) – Both teams played Commanders and Browns. There can be no net effect on either team’s SOS.
Texans (11-5) vs Colts (8-8) – Neither team played the Commanders or Browns. The outcome of this game cannot effect either team’s SOS.
Buccaneers (7-9) vs Panthers (8-8) – Neither team played the Commanders or Browns. The outcome of this game cannot effect either team’s SOS.
Category: General Sports
