Predicting how UNC will finish in ACC play as the conference slate heats up and the Tar Heels aim to secure their postseason spot.
After a little over a week without basketball, North Carolina will finally take the hardwood once again with ACC play beginning on Tuesday.
The Tar Heels will open ACC play against Florida State at 2:15 p.m. ET. The overall conference has improved, as Virginia is back to being a contender, Miami has plenty of talent and California has been making noise. Of course, you still have the usual suspects in Duke and Louisville.
Here’s a look at the ACC slate and my predictions on how UNC will fare each month, along with a final ACC record prediction.
December/January
- Dec. 30: vs. Florida State (2:15 p.m.)
- January 3, 2026: at SMU (2:15 p.m.)
- Jan. 10, 2026: vs. Wake Forest (6 p.m.)
- Jan. 14, 2026: at Stanford (9 p.m.)
- Jan. 17, 2026: at California (4 p.m.)
- Jan. 21, 2026: vs. Notre Dame (7 p.m.)
- Jan. 24, 2026: at Virginia (TBA)
- Jan. 31, 2026: at Georgia Tech (2 p.m.)
ACC play opens with a game against Florida State (7-6), which should be an easy win for UNC considering the Seminoles’ shooting struggles play into UNC’s biggest strength so far: defense.
SMU (11-2) is a talented team and will probably give UNC trouble early on, especially since the Tar Heels have played only one true road game all season. However, the Mustangs have allowed 80 or more points in four of their five games.
The Tar Heels then come back to Chapel Hill to play in-state rival Wake Forest, which has two one-point losses to nationally ranked Michigan and Texas Tech, before going on a weeklong road trip to the San Francisco Bay Area to take on Stanford (11-2) and California (12-1), both off to strong starts this season.
Carolina will come back home to face a struggling Notre Dame squad (7-6) before going on back-to-back road trips to Virginia and Georgia Tech. Since the 2010-11 season, the Tar Heels have a 3-8 record against Virginia in Charlottesville, with all eight losses coming consecutively before finally winning there in the 2023-24 season.
Prediction: 7-1; Loss to Virginia
February
- Feb. 2, 2026: vs. Syracuse (7 p.m.)
- Feb. 7, 2026: vs. Duke (6:30 p.m.)
- Feb. 10, 2026: at Miami (FL) (7 p.m.)
- Feb. 14, 2026: vs. Pitt (2 p.m.)
- Feb. 17, 2026: at NC State (7 p.m.)
- Feb. 21, 2026: at Syracuse (1 p.m.)
- Feb. 23, 2026: vs. Louisville (7 p.m.)
- Feb. 28, 2026: vs. Virginia Tech (TBA)
North Carolina starts the month of February with two home games against Syracuse and its archrival Duke, the preseason favorite to win the ACC regular-season crown. The latter will be highly anticipated, of course, as it will mark the first matchup this season between UNC’s Caleb Wilson and Duke’s Cameron Boozer.
It won’t be an easy month for UNC, with tough road games against Miami, NC State and Syracuse, along with home matchups against Louisville and Duke.
Prediction: 6-2; Losses to Duke and NC State
March
March 3, 2026: vs. Clemson (7 p.m.)
March 7, 2026: at Duke (6:30 p.m.)
With only two games left on the schedule, the Tar Heels will face two tournament-caliber opponents in Clemson and Duke, the latter coming at the infamous Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Clemson is a team that has had two tough losses to top-15 opponents in Alabama and BYU, the latter a last-second, one-point defeat in a game the Tigers probably should have won.
I think Carolina will defeat Duke at Cameron and avenge its loss earlier in the season, avoiding another regular-season sweep and continuing its tradition of spoiling the Blue Devils’ Senior Night once again.
Prediction: 2-0
Final ACC Record: 15-3
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Predicting where the Tar Heels finish in ACC play
Category: General Sports
