A number of big non-CFP bowl games are on the schedule over the next few days.
Bowls ATS: 9-14 (8-11 National, 1-4 B1G – 4 games pending)
Season ATS: 141-128 (73-67 National, 68-61 B1G)
The first few games after Christmas were brutal, as I lost the first five games played against the spread. The hardest to stomach was the Rate Bowl where New Mexico lost by three points in overtime when they were 2.5-point underdogs. Even the Pop-Tarts Bowl did me wrong, since BYU won by four points when they were 4.5-point favorites.
I’m just telling myself I’m getting the losses out of the way before the much bigger College Football Playoff games. Maybe I can round in form with some covers in my picks for some of the games right before the CFP resumes. Keep an eye out for my picks for the Cotton Bowl and the rest of the CFP quarterfinals, as they should follow in the next day or two.
Non-CFP bowls 12/29 – 1/2
Music City Bowl: Tennessee (-2.5) v. Illinois – Tuesday 12/30 5:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Last year at this time, Tennessee was still reeling from getting stuffed in a locker by Ohio State in Columbus in the College Football Playoff. This year, the Volunteers will make the short trip to Nashville to take on Illinois in a battle for orange supremacy.
After transferring from Appalachian State to replace Nico Iamaleava, quarterback Joey Aguilar had a solid season for Tennessee, tossing 24 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Aguilar, he won’t have wide receiver Chris Brazzell II, who has opted out of this game. Turnovers were a problem for Aguilar this year, as he threw 10 interceptions. Without his top receiver, I can see Aguilar tossing a couple more picks against an opportunistic Illinois defense.
On the other side, Luke Altmyer has thrown half as many interceptions as Aguilar. Obviously, the goal for the Fighting Illini was to make the College Football Playoff, but I still expect them to play hard in Nashville to keep the program’s momentum going under Bret Bielema. Even though Tennessee might have better athletes than Illinois, I think the Fighting Illini are the better all-around team.
Illinois 28, Tennessee 20
Alamo Bowl: No. 16 USC (-6.5) v. TCU – Tuesday 12/30 9:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
I’m still trying to understand how Makai Lemon was named the top wide receiver in the country over Jeremiah Smith this year. Not that Lemon isn’t a tremendous talent, but anyone with eyes could tell you that Smith is better. Then again, I’m sure Smith isn’t sweating it too much since he is getting ready for a game that matters, while Lemon has already opted out of a bowl game that doesn’t.
One player who will remember the Alamo is Jayden Maiava. Even though he’ll be without his top-three targets this season, the USC quarterback has already pledged to play on Tuesday night in San Antonio. I do like the Trojans in this game because Maiava will be suiting up. It’ll give USC a clear advantage over TCU, since their quarterback, Josh Hoover, has already entered the transfer portal.
In the pas,t I might shy away from USC against a team that would out-physical them. TCU isn’t a team that is going to do that. The Horned Frogs aren’t great a running the football, and their defense has a bunch of holes. Head coach Lincoln Riley can set the tone for 2026 with a win to close out 2025.
USC 38, TCU 21
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 23 Iowa v. No. 14 Vanderbilt (-4.5) – Wednesday 12/31 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
I think Diego Pavia’s college career will finally come to an end on the last day of 2025. Pavia has been bouncing around college football for nearly a decade, and he keeps finding creative ways to become more annoying. I’m actually thrilled he is going to be closing out his run in college against Iowa, since the Hawkeyes will make him earn every yard.
Iowa’s four losses this season came by a combined 15 points. Even though their style of football might not be pretty, they are great at making their opponents play their game. Quarterback Mark Gronowski has rushed for nearly twice as many touchdowns as he has thrown for this year, and will be playing in his final collegiate game after spending four years at South Dakota State.
Not only is it easy to root for Iowa here since it is Big Ten vs. SEC, but it would also be great to see Pavia get humbled by the Iowa defense. I just think the Hawkeyes are the better team here.
Iowa 23, Vanderbilt 14
Citrus Bowl: No. 18 Michigan v. No. 13 Texas (-7.5) – Wednesday 12/31 3:00 p.m. ET – ABC
These two teams met last year in Ann Arbor, and we all saw what happened. A lot of the personnel have changed since then. Instead of Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning will start for the Longhorns at quarterback. Unlike last year, Michigan thinks they have an actual quarterback, although last time out, Bryce Underwood did absolutely nothing against the Ohio State defense.
How much do the Wolverines actually care about this game? They have gone through a lot in the last month. Seeing their four-game winning streak against Ohio State snapped, followed by Sherrone Moore getting fired and arrested. Michigan did make a solid hire in Kyle Whittingham, but only after their first three or four choices turned them down. Even interim head coach Biff Poggi has had some strong words about the state of Michigan football.
How great of a close to 2025 would it be if Michigan lost in this game and Ohio State goes on to beat Miami? Texas might have had a disappointing season after they were predicted to make the College Football Playoff, and Arch Manning’s name was already being engraved on the Heisman Trophy before the season began. At least the Longhorns finished the regular season with some momentum by beating rival Texas A&M in Austin. Texas adds to Michigan’s nightmare end to the year by beating them for the second time in just over a year.
Texas 27, Michigan 13
Rapid Fire Picks
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern (-7.5) v. Appalachian State – Monday 12/29 2:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Georgia Southern 34, Appalachian State 17
Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina v. Louisiana Tech (-8.5) – Tuesday 12/30 2:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Louisiana Tech 24, Coastal Carolina 20
Sun Bowl: Arizona State v. Duke (-2.5) – Wednesday 12/31 2:00 p.m. ET – CBS
Duke 31, Arizona State 21
Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska v. No. 15 Utah (-15.5) – Wednesday 12/31 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Utah 33, Nebraska 14
Armed Forces Bowl: Rice v. Texas State (-11.5) – Friday 1/2 1:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas State 30, Rice 13
Liberty Bowl: Navy (-6.5) v. Cincinnati – Friday 1/2 4:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Navy 27, Cincinnati 16
Holiday Bowl: No. 17 Arizona (-2.5) v. SMU – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Arizona 28, SMU 24
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest v. Mississippi State (-2.5) – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Wake Forest 35, Mississippi State 27
Category: General Sports
