The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fight for their playoff lives against the Miami Dolphins. Can they exploit a rookie quarterback and slow Miami's rushing attack to secure a chance at a division title?
At one point, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 6-2 and among the top contenders in the NFC. Entering Week 17's meeting with the Miami Dolphins (6-9), the Buccaneers (7-8) are now fighting for their playoff lives and looking up at the 8-7 Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.
A win Sunday over the Dolphins ensures the Buccaneers will be playing for a division title in Week 18. A loss could potentially end their playoff hopes if the Panthers defeat the Seattle Seahawks at Bank of America Stadium.
The Buccaneers will be facing rookie, seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers, who will be making his second start since replacing Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched, in Week 16.
The last time the Buccaneers faced a rookie quarterback, they lost at home to Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints. That loss began a three-game losing streak heading at the Bucs head to Miami.
Ewers threw two interceptions in a 45-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16. If the Buccaneers can get pressure on the rookie, they can get Ewers into trouble and force turnovers.
As important as getting to Ewers is, it may be even more important for the Buccaneers to stop, or at least slow down, Dolphins running back Devon Achane, who enters the week as the NFL's third-leading rusher at 1,267 yards.
Achane is one of the fastest players in the NFL with great breakaway speed. Achane leads the league with 66 rushes of at least 15 miles per hour, according to NFL Next Gen Stats and only two players -- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs -- have more rushes of at least 20 miles per hour than Achane.
Offensively, the Buccaneers have taken a turn for the worst, starting with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was once viewed as an MVP candidate. According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield has a 72.6 passer rating since Week 11. He had a 99.2 rating from Weeks 1-10. The 72.6 rating ranks 29th out of 31 qualified passers.
Only Browns QB Shedeur Sanders (67.5) and Jets QB Brady Cook (51.7) have been worse.
Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards in five of his last six games and six of his last eight. Injuries at the receiver position have accounted for part of that, but the Bucs now have almost all their weapons healthy.
However, they still are not moving the football as effectively as they had been earlier in the season. The good news is they are facing a Dolphins defense that is allowing 0.02 expected points added per play, 9th-highest in the NFL. They also rank 8th-highest with 0.06 expected points added per pass.
This is also a week where the Buccaneers' backfield should get going again. Miami's defense ranks 26th with 130.3 rushing yards per game allowed.
Miami is also closer to the middle of the pack in expected points added allowed per rush, ranking 19th. This could be a game where the Bucs want to keep the football on the ground, but they also can take advantage of a depleted Dolphins secondary, one that just lost another player in cornerback Isaiah Johnson to a torn ACL during practice Friday.
This is essentially a playoff game for the Buccaneers against an eliminated Dolphins team. It's hard to trust this team now at 7-8 and the Dolphins can be very tricky. The Buccaneers certainly won't be able to just walk into Hard Rock Stadium and expect to win.
However, they know that they have to win to boost their playoff chances. Otherwise, they'll become the biggest Seahawks fans for a few hours.
Category: General Sports
