The Bears and 49ers are both alive in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers being 11-4 this late in the season is surprising, in different ways.
The Bears are one of the breakout teams of 2025. They are very likely to win the NFC North after a thrilling Week 16 overtime win against the Packers. The Bears built their record in the first half of the season with a lot of close wins against bad teams, but they have played better over the past month. And they still have a shot at the No. 1 seed.
The 49ers were expected to be good before the season started, but a multitude of injuries should have pushed them well out of the playoff race. But coach Kyle Shanahan has done a great job and the 49ers are also alive for the No. 1 seed. Given how many star players have missed time, the 49ers having a shot at the top seed is remarkable.
The only argument against the legitimacy of the 49ers is the same one the Bears faced a month ago. They have mostly fattened up on bad teams. Since a Week 5 win against the Rams, the 49ers have won seven games and two came against teams currently above .500. Those two wins were against the 8-7 and inconsistent Panthers, and the 8-7 Colts who are a shell of themselves since starting 7-1 and then losing quarterback Daniel Jones. The 49ers have won despite injuries but the injuries still factor in their season: The defense has not been great without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and will have trouble against better teams. That doesn’t take away from them winning 11 games already, but it’s also hard to ignore.
Motivation won’t be a problem with both teams still alive for the No. 1 seed. The Bears are a 3-point underdog, and that is the pick for Sunday night. The 49ers could simply outscore Chicago with a red-hot offense, but the Bears are playing very well too. Chicago should at least keep it close. It’s one of the rare good games on the Week 17 schedule.
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 17 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:
Cowboys (-7.5) over Commanders
The Commanders are down to Josh Johnson at quarterback with Marcus Mariota being ruled out. Johnson is a fun story, a 39-year-old who has played for seemingly every NFL team and many teams in other leagues too. But his team has won only one of his nine starts since he entered the NFL in 2009. His career passer rating is 69.5. At least we know the Cowboys will generate some offense.
Vikings (+7.5) over Lions
Undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer will start again for the Vikings. In his first start he threw four interceptions and had a 32.8 passer rating. So why take the Vikings? They have been very competitive around the quarterback position lately. And perhaps the Lions have a big letdown after a crushing loss last week to the Steelers that all but killed their playoff dreams. It’s not comfortable backing Brosmer, but here we are.
Broncos (-13) over Chiefs
Last week, I thought the Chiefs would at least compete even though their playoff hopes were over. They lost 26-9 to a putrid Titans team. Losing Gardner Minshew II to a knee injury right away didn’t help, but that’s the situation they’re in again. Chris Oladokun, who played his first significant snaps in the NFL last week, gets the start against a very good Broncos defense that will be motivated to rebound from last week’s loss to the Jaguars.
Chargers (-2) over Texans
The Chargers were somehow underdogs last week against a Cowboys team that had already been eliminated from the playoffs and hasn’t been very good all season. The Chargers won 34-17. This week they’re barely favored at home against Houston. The betting market has been strangely lukewarm to a Chargers team that is 11-4 and could still take the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Texans are good, particularly on defense. Their pass rush will give the Chargers problems. But it’s time to give the Chargers their respect.
Ravens (+3) over Packers
Will Lamar Jackson play? Will Jordan Love play? Both quarterbacks left their Week 16 games with injuries. With so much uncertainty at this point in the week, just take the points.
Bengals (-7) over Cardinals
The Cardinals’ injury report is treacherous. Arizona might be able to put up some points on a bad Bengals defense, but there’s no question Cincinnati will score plenty.
Steelers (-3) over Browns
There’s one key piece that we don’t know the answer to yet. If the Ravens lose Saturday, the Steelers clinch the AFC North and would have practically nothing to play for. There’s little chance they could move up from the No. 4 seed to the No. 3 seed. But if the Ravens beat the Packers, the Steelers have to win to clinch the division (if the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, a Ravens-Steelers game in Week 18 would be for the division title), and the Browns would love to play spoiler against their rival in that scenario.
Saints (-2.5) over Titans
The Titans deserve credit for continuing to play hard. They are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games. But the Saints are playing hard too. They’ve covered the spread four games in a row. And New Orleans is the better team.
Jaguars (-6.5) over Colts
Philip Rivers has been a compelling story, but the Colts are falling apart around him. The defense was ravaged by the 49ers on Monday night. And Rivers will face a much tougher defense this week. The Jaguars are one of the NFL’s hottest teams, and if Houston loses on Saturday, a win on Sunday would clinch the AFC South title.
Dolphins (+5.5) over Buccaneers
The Bucs still have plenty to play for — a win Sunday ensures that they will play the Panthers in Week 18 with the NFC South title on the line — but does it matter? The Buccaneers have been bad lately, losing six of seven. The Dolphins are no prize themselves, especially with Quinn Ewers at quarterback, but the Buccaneers shouldn’t be this much of a favorite.
Patriots (-13.5) over Jets
It’s generally not a great idea to take 13.5-point road favorites in the NFL. But have you seen the Jets lately? They’ve lost five of six and the losses have been by 13, 13, 24, 28 and 23 points.
Panthers (+7) over Seahawks
The Panthers are in a weird spot. It’s possible the outcome of their game means nothing, or it results in them winning the NFC South. If the Buccaneers beat Miami, they force a division title showdown against the Panthers in Week 18. If the Bucs lose and the Panthers win, Carolina wins the NFC South. Both games kick off at 1 p.m. Eastern time Sunday. The Panthers have to play to win, and as the Rams found out a few weeks ago, an early start in Charlotte won’t be the easiest task for Seattle.
Giants (+1) over Raiders
Strangely, this is one of the most intriguing games of the week. These are the only two remaining 2-13 teams, and the loser will be close to locking up the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. While you hear a lot about tanking, players and coaches don’t really care about draft positioning (Maxx Crosby made that clear on Wednesday). Giants interim coach Mike Kafka probably won’t even be around after the next few weeks, and Raiders coach Pete Carroll might be on his way out too. So don’t assume the teams will play to lose. They’re just bad. And the Raiders are worse.
Bills (-1) over Eagles
This game, strangely, has little on the line. The Eagles have clinched the NFC East and are very likely to get the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Bills do have a 19% shot to win the AFC East, via DVOA, but that gets worse if the Patriots win as a 13.5-point favorite in the early games on Sunday. These teams could conceivably meet in the Super Bowl, but the stakes for this one aren’t very high. We still haven’t seen the Eagles play well against a good team in a while.
Falcons (+8) over Rams
if the 49ers and Seahawks win on Sunday, the Rams will be eliminated from the NFC West race. As is, they need some breaks to take the division and get the No. 1 seed. Not much went right for them in Week 16. The Rams are clearly the better team, but the Falcons might have a little extra juice playing on Monday night.
Last week: 7-8-1
Season to date: 119-116-6
Category: General Sports
