After a completely normal and uneventful offseason, it's time to check in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Will you get fantasy gas from Arthur Smith's crew? Is it time to abandon hope on D.K. Metcalf? Did anybody else join this team this offseason?
There's a line between meticulous and sitting on your hands that's hard to parse sometimes, and that's the story of Pittsburgh's offseason. If you want to write about how they should have kept Justin Fields but were caught flat-footed, you absolutely can. If you want to write about how they should have kept George Pickens and made him happy instead of replacing him with DK Metcalf, you can. Kicking T.J. Watt's contract talks down the road until the eve of training camp. Doing almost nothing in free agency and then becoming the Jalen Ramsey team out of nowhere. The quarterback who wants to remain out of the limelight and whose wishes I will respect by not referring to him by name in this introduction.
If you look at the end game of the Steelers' moves as they're about to hit camp, it's a pretty strong offseason. The amount of teeth-gnashing spent on how it turned six months into something that felt more like six decades aside, they stayed about even at quarterback in an ungenerous reading. They improved the defense significantly, though they did make it even older somehow. They got good picks for Pickens.
The fact that Omar Khan got an extension tells you all you need to know about how volatile this roster is, though. I'd want a three-year parachute attached to this one too, if I were him.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Stats (RANK)
Offensive Summary
Points per game: 22.4 (16th)
Total yards per game: 319.4 (23rd)
Plays per game: 63.6 (10th)
Dropbacks per game: 36.7 (27th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.05 (19th)
Rush attempts per game: 31.4 (4th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.12 (24th)
Passing yards per game: 192 (27th)
Rush yards per game: 127.4 (11th)
Turnovers per Game: 1 (10th)
EPA per play: -0.03 (20th)
Is DK Metcalf the next Garrett Wilson?
The halcyon days of 2024 re-draft season were here, it was time to make Garrett Wilson a late first-round pick. He'd produced without a real quarterback solution in 2023, when he put up a 95/1042/3 line with 11 starts of Zach Wilson and dashes of Trevor Siemian and (somehow) Tim Boyle.
Problem: Aaron Rodgers and (Garrett) Wilson did not get along all that well on or off the field. It was evident in body language reports in camp, and it was evident when Wilson turned an obscene 23-target London performance into merely 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. Back in the States, Wilson was taking an average of 8.5 targets a game for 47.8 yards before the London outburst. After, his targets fell to 8.1, his yardage increased a bit to 67.7, and he scored five of his seven touchdowns.
Of course, those numbers were only disappointments by the standard that we held Wilson to. Metcalf is being drafted closer to the WR3 range. We're not going to know how well Rodgers and Metcalf will meld together ahead of training camp — they did throw together before Rogers signed.
But we may be overthinking how bad Metcalf's numbers could look after the quarterback's Jets tenure. Drake London put up 69/905/2 in a run-heavy offense with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, garnering 110 targets. Put a quarterback with actual talent into the scheme, and create a depth chart at wideout that is about on par with the remainder of the 2023 Falcons (the original team that used Mack Hollins as a No. 2 wideout on purpose) and you could have a recipe for some explosive fantasy football production. Maybe even 140 targets, as Metcalf saw in 2022.
As soon as Pickens was headed to Dallas, the gushing about his fantasy prospects began. I'd be much more interested in holding Metcalf right now. And I do think he can be the next Garrett Wilson — in the sense that I wouldn't be surprised if he found a "disappointing" 101/1104/7 season. As Christopher Crawford sometimes blurbs: You could do worse.
Passing game
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph
WR: DK Metcalf, Scotty Miller
WR: Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods
WR: Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek
TE: Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington
Aaron Rodgers finished 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy points last year, but we're guessing his four-touchdown Week 18 didn't help you. Other than that, Rodgers had two three-touchdown weeks (Week 9 against the Texans, Week 15 against the Jaguars) and offered negligible value on the ground. Despite how annoying it is to watch Rodgers play the position now — he plays quarterback like a five-year old with a talking keychain that says "Slant!" "Flat!" "Go!" — he was a reasonable QB2 in superflex leagues last year. Luckily there's no reason to talk about him asides from what he does on the football field, so you should have no issues dialing him up as a superflex QB2 again this year. Hold on a second, I'm getting word that the Steelers will probably throw way less than the Jets did last year. Rodgers is a reasonable QB2 play, but you shouldn't build your superflex draft strategy on hoping he holds on to last year's numbers.
Hilariously, we have to continue this by talking about the 2023 Falcons again, because what Arthur Smith has done here is recreate the Jonnu Smith 2023 situation. For those of you who didn't live this: Kyle Pitts was seen as a generational tight end prospect, and so Smith did what any smart coach would do: design a game-plan that heavily emphasized the No. 2 tight end and pissed off every fantasy manager in existence to no end. We've never been so owned. Neither Smith nor Pat Freiermuth project as high-ladder TE1s because they'll be cannibalizing each other's production. But, well, we have to respect the commitment to the bit.
Calvin Austin III has gotten the majority of the hype about being Pittsburgh's WR2 heading into training camp. Roman Wilson is probably stylistically a better WR2 for the team, as he has more of an outside receiver body. Wilson was a healthy scratch for the majority of the end of the season, playing five offensive snaps in Week 6. I can't build a case for him to be draftable with that resume, but I think we should be open to the idea that he could be a worthwhile dynasty hold. Austin figures to be the team's primary deep shot receiver, a role which isn't totally pointless in Arthur Smith offenses, but I'm concerned about how it translates with a new quarterback. To me, Austin opens as a high-end WR5.
Robert Woods and Ben Skowronek are both here to block and catch open underneath passes. That makes them good real-life contributors. You don't have to pretend they are anything beyond aspiring PPR scams.
Running Game
RB: Jaylen Warren, Kaleb Johnson, Kenneth Gainwell, Trey Sermon
OL (L-R): Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, Zach Frazier, Mason McCormick, Troy Fautanu
This probably plays out in the boring way that the majority of these rookie running back situations play out: We start September with more Jaylen Warren, and gradually it will become clear that Kaleb Johnson is a better back with less overall weaknesses. Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are both backs with good experience as third-down options, though it's hard to discern how good Johnson is given he played at Iowa and throwing the ball is illegal there. For what it's worth, Johnson had a decent 65.3 PFF receiving rating in 2024 and pass blocking was reportedly an emphasis for him this offseason.
Both Johnson and Warren get earmarked around the RB30-40 black hole with other guys we don't totally understand, like Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. I'm not a Warren stan and was weirded out by how much love he got last offseason as Zero RB clogged the timeline with their rhetoric, but I do think a full runway as a starter in Pittsburgh has a chance to make us very rich early in the season. I prefer to hold Johnson over the course of the season, but I don't think you'll make bank on it early barring big swings in training camp.
Gainwell is a fine third-down back, while Trey Sermon has somehow already hit four teams at age-26 and likely is fighting for a role behind Johnson. Neither has standalone value at this point.
Pittsburgh's offensive line is young and has impressed some over the past calendar year, particularly Zach Frazier at center. This has led to football hipsters (not a pejorative, including myself as one) believing Pittsburgh may be able to have a dominant ground attack this year. I think that's definitely what Smith would prefer, but I can't imagine Rodgers will be pleased to hand the ball off 35 times a game. It's a weird clash of egos. I will be rooting for the offensive line to make it look stupid not to run the ball, because if they don't, this offense may be in for some struggling.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 win total
A mid-range line for a mid-range team that always seems to find an over with Mike Tomlin, you have to pay minus-106 to go over 8.5. I'm a fan of that bet solely on Tomlin's track record and Pittsburgh's defense. I am no big fan of Rodgers' recent work, but if he performed like Kenny Pickett did — that would be enough for the Steelers in most seasons to hit nine wins.
If you want to take the contrarian side of this, I think you're mostly making a bet on Pittsburgh's defense being too old: Darius Slay, Ramsey, Watt, and Cameron Heyward could create some major regression this year. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about them in 2026. But in 2025? I think they'll be good enough to hold on as a top 15 fantasy D/ST.
Category: General Sports
