When the Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 season veered fully off the rails, sitting with a 4-8 record after Week 13, at […]
When the Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 season veered fully off the rails, sitting with a 4-8 record after Week 13, at least fans had a last-place schedule to envision in 2026. Now, that is in jeopardy. Minnesota could reasonably lose its claim to that easier slate of opponents, depending on the outcome of this weekend’s showdown with the Detroit Lions.
A win helps in the moment, but it can tighten next year’s road; a loss may improve draft positioning while handing Detroit a boost — an awkward trade either way.
The Lions are favored to beat the Vikings, but if Minnesota scores the upset, it will stare down the barrel of a tougher schedule next year.
Vikings-Lions Will Impact Minnesota’s 2026 Outlook
The Vikings and Lions are now racing to the bottom of the NFC North.
Last-Place Schedule Was Once in the Bag
About a month ago, the Vikings had sunk to a 4-8 record, rudderless due to injuries and quarterback inefficiency. Fans chalked up the doldrums to a lost season and maintained a “at least they’ll get a high draft pick and last-place schedule” posture.
That posture now has scoliosis. Or skoliosis.
A win by the Vikings over the Lions would nudge the purple team into third place inside the NFC North and might even whisk the draft pick from its current position, No. 15, to No. 16, 17, or 18, believe it or not.
A last-place schedule is no longer a foregone conclusion, and in fact, if you want the Vikings to eliminate the Lions from the playoffs on Christmas Day, it’ll be a bittersweet outcome: the satisfaction of daggering Detroit while self-inducing a tougher schedule and worse draft pick.
3rd Place vs. 4th Place Schedule
What’s the difference between a 3rd and 4th Place schedule in 2026? We have answers.
A 3rd Place docket would pit the Vikings against these teams next year:
- Indianapolis Colts
- San Francisco 49ers — or Los Angeles Rams
- Washington Commanders
The 4th Place menu would look like this:
- Arizona Cardinals
- New York Giants
- Tennessee Titans
Fans must ask themselves: of these swing teams, would you rather see Minnesota play the Colts, 49ers, and Commanders — or Cardinals, Giants, and Titans? Those are the stakes for Christmas Day and in Week 18.
Lions’ Super Bowl Window Begins to Close
Meanwhile, Detroit could be in trouble. After hiring general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell about a half-decade ago, the Lions roared. Truly roared. Holmes built the roster adeptly through the draft, and after a weird introductory press conference, Campbell later confirmed that his team would be good and relevant, biting kneecaps along the way.
Detroit even reached the 2023 NFC Championship before utterly choking against the San Francisco 49ers in the biggest collapse in the history of the NFC Championship by the numbers.
The Lions’ roster is still top-notch, but few teams can leave a Super Bowl window ajar indefinitely. What’s more, Detroit is inches away from missing the postseason in an all-in season.
The Athletic‘sColton Pouncy disagrees on the notion of a closing Super Bowl window: “Windows are about a collection of talent in place at once. Keeping the guys who got you there together as long as you can, to give yourself as many bites at the apple as possible. That’s what the Lions have done in prioritizing their talented homegrown core. If this is the baseline, they absolutely have what it takes to remain a contender in the years to come.”
“The Rams won a Super Bowl, went 5-12 the next year, retooled the roster and were back in the playoffs a year later. Now they’re the No. 1 seed. The Lions don’t have to go to the lengths the Rams did to fix things. The core is in place for years to come. If the Lions finish, say, 10-7 and miss the playoffs, folks have every right to be disappointed. But there’s too much talent to definitively say the window is closed. This was always going to be a bit of a transition year. We’re seeing it play out that way.”
Both Teams Playing to Win on Sunday
Regarding the race to the bottom for Minnesota and Detroit, players and coaches don’t give a damn about the 2026 schedule and draft picks. The Lions will fight as if they can still reach the playoffs — needing to win out while the Green Bay Packers lose their next two games — and the Vikings never, ever even remotely “tank.” It’s why Minnesota has won its last three games after a 4-8 start to the season.
Fans can monitor the winner and loser intently, scheming 2026 schedules and draft order — they will do that — but all those involved will treat the Yuletide contest with the intensity of a playoff game.
And if Minnesota happens to lose — oddsmakers think the purple will lose by six or seven points — the perk is a last-place schedule and better draft pick.
Category: General Sports
