Can P.J. Fleck preserve his perfect bowl record?
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) will close out the season against the New Mexico Lobos (9-3) in the Rate Bowl on Friday, Dec. 26, at 3:30 pm. CST.
The game will be televised on ESPN.
Can New Mexico score on offense?
New Mexico is unexceptional on offense, ranking 73rd in rushing offense (155.1 rushing yards per game), 83rd in passing offense (214.5 passing yards per game), and 67th in scoring offense (27.9 points per game). But they ended the season on a six-game winning streak in large part because their defense was able to hold their opponents in check, and the Lobos’ offense was able to score enough points to secure a victory.
New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne reminds me a lot of Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey. In fact, their stat lines from this season are remarkably similar:
Jack Layne: 199-of-302 (65.9%), 2,398 passing yards, 13 TDs, 9 INTs
Drake Lindsey: 228-of-361 (63.2%), 2,235 passing yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs
Both quarterbacks are elite “processors,” drawing praise for their elite preparation and their ability to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Neither is very mobile, operating largely from the pocket. Layne won’t necessarily beat you with his arm, but if you allow him to be efficient, he’ll find a way. Pressure is key, as he has struggled with turnovers, throwing eight of his nine interceptions in their three losses this season.
His favorite target in the passing game is former Iowa receiver Keagan Johnson, who leads the team with 57 receptions for 730 yards and three touchdowns. But New Mexico also has a matchup nightmare in the form of 6’7” tight end Dorian Thomas, who has hauled in 53 receptions for 545 yards and four touchdowns.
The Lobos do not have a workhorse at running back, instead relying on a committee of backs. Senior Damon Bankston is their leading rusher and most versatile back, ranking third on the team in receptions. Sophomore D.J. McKinney is the change-of-pace back who is best suited to outside zone plays with his ability to make one cut and accelerate through the hole. Finally, junior Scottre Humphrey is more of a downhill runner.
The problem for the Gopher defense all season has been an inconsistent pass rush and a secondary that struggles to hold up in coverage. Can Minnesota pressure Layne? That will be a deciding factor on Friday.
Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score
The Lobos rank 25th nationally in run defense (113.4 rushing yards allowed per game), 97th in pass defense (236 passing yards allowed per game), and 48th in scoring defense (22.5 points allowed per game).
New Mexico is coached by Jason Eck, but the name you’re going to hear a lot on Friday is Jaxton Eck. The edge rusher is one of the reasons the Lobos are tough against the run, racking up a team-leading 126 total tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, four quarterback hurries, two pass break-ups, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. He is all over the place, leading a defense loaded with experienced upperclassmen.
Minnesota offensive tackles Nathan Roy and Dylan Ray will also have their hands full on Friday with defensive ends Keyshawn James-Newby and Brett Karhu. The pair have been disruptive all season long for New Mexico, racking up a combined 23.5 tackles for loss, 15 sacks, and 11 quarterback hurries.
If the Gophers can protect quarterback Drake Lindsey, the Lobos are vulnerable through the air, but it remains to be seen who will be catching Lindsey’s passes at Chase Field. The team’s leading receiver Le’Meke Brockington announced his intent to prepare for the NFL Draft and is unlikely to participate. Five other wide receivers — Malachi Coleman, Kenric Lanier, Quentin Redding, Cristian Driver, and Legend Lyons — are set to enter the transfer portal in January. That leaves Javon Tracy, Jalen Smith, and Logan Loya, with the potential for redshirt sophomore Nuke Hayes or true freshman Bradley Martino to see the field.
Expect running back Darius Taylor and tight end Jameson Geers to figure heavily into the passing game.
But who will score more points on Saturday?
This will not be an easy game for Minnesota. New Mexico is 1-1 this season against Big Ten teams, dropping the season opener to Michigan before triggering the firing of UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster with a 35-10 win over the Bruins. Jason Eck is a rising star in the coaching ranks and could have easily parlayed his success at Idaho and now New Mexico into filling one of the Power 4 head coaching vacancies that opened up this season. For now, he remains a Lobo — and a problem for the Gophers. But no one loves a bowl game more than P.J. Fleck, as evidenced by his 6-0 postseason record at Minnesota. Minnesota 20, New Mexico 17.
Category: General Sports
