New England Patriots Mailbag: Is something wrong with the passing game?

After losing their first game in 83 days, the New England Patriots will now look to bounce back in primetime against the Baltimore Ravens. Fighting for their playoff lives, Baltimore has turned things around defensively of late while Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will certainly stress a struggling Patriots run defense.

With that, let’s get into this week’s #PostPulpit Mailbag.

Am I crazy or did the Patriots just not really try to push the ball downfield against the Bills? Were they afraid of something? – ghosthaus

To Buffalo’s credit, they ditched post-safety coverages in the first-half and leaned into two-high safety and man-to-man looks playing them on nearly 87% of Drake Maye’s drop backs in the second half — while also disguising coverage shells on nearly a quarter of those plays. Two-high structures are designed to take away the deep shots and instead force quarterbacks to take profits underneath.

With Maye and New England’s pass catchers struggling with post-snap recognition, the offense failed to find a rhythm. Buffalo’s coaching staff won the chess match.

What I couldn’t understand about the Bills game was why Diggs, Boutte and Douglas all had so few catches. Were those guys not getting open? – Peter from Brighton

Diggs specifically had a rough second half and did not seem to be seeing Buffalo’s coverage disguises very well — often running into leverage. With Buffalo playing mostly man-to-man, it was interesting that DeMario Douglas only played 10 total snaps as he’s typically their most consistent man beater. Perhaps that changes against Baltimore, a unit that ranks near the top of the league in man-to-man coverage rates.

How many mistakes from Bills games are fixable by Raven’s game? Or was that lack of talent being exposed? – sumeetw

On defense, it’s tough to see many of the mistakes being corrected as they’ve been plaguing the team all season. Stopping Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson on the ground will be no easy task for a declining run defense down Milton Williams and now likely Robert Spillane (ankle). Perhaps a league’s worst red zone defense (allowing TDs on 75% of opposition’s drives) could get a bump against a Ravens offense that ranks 31st in touchdown percentage.

Mistakes offensively and on special teams should be more fixable. Maye has been sharp against two-high safety defenses this season so the hope is the Buffalo performance was an outlier. New England’s kick coverage has also been strong this season, although former special teams coach John Harbaugh could have some tricks up his sleeve as well after watching how the Bills took advantage.

What went wrong on kick return coverage? Was it all Caleb Murphy’s fault? Is Chad Muma enough to fix it? Are Larry Izzo and Matt Chatham busy Sunday night?! – slunkywontergreen

To put it simple: they got schemed up. Buffalo did a nice job showing some new wrinkles that included basically running a power concept — where they doubled Anfernee Jennings and pulled a blocker to clean out the edge defender — and then using an offensive lineman as the lead blocker on the 58-yard return to start the second half.

New England also struggled to shed blocks or cause enough restriction at the point of attack to get a penalty flag thrown (like Buffalo’s coverage unit did on Marte Mapu) which all piled up to allow 41.0 yards per return.

Is it likely to have a full team healthy with Milton with Campbell by play off time ? – 7i165

Both Milton Williams and Will Campbell seem to be progressing well through their rehab. With Williams, who has noted how challenging it has been to be watching games from home, eligible to return next week and Campbell eligible for Week 18, I would expect both ready come playoffs.

The new wild card now is linebacker Robert Spillane. After being active in an emergency-only role versus Buffalo (0 snaps), Spillane was spotted with a walking boot on his left foot in the locker room and has not practiced Wednesday or Thursday. New England added a linebacker to both their active roster and practice squad, so the veterans availability will be a top storyline to monitor moving forward.

Matt Judon was just released by the Dolphins. Please describe NE’s interest in the form of treadlife. Is there any tread left on Judon? That tire is bald? Is he not even a temporary spare? – 1stStateSoxFan

If Judon’s head was on a penny the majority of it would be showing when put into a tire groove. On the year, Judon has 10 pressures on 151 pass rush snaps. For comparison, UDFA Elijah Ponder has 10 pressures across 87 pass rush snaps. Judon, who went unclaimed on waivers, has filled in well on kick and punt coverage for Miami, but would doubt there is much interest on a reunion.

Based on the season so far, what do you see as the Patriots priorities for the offseason and draft from a roster building standpoint? – Twentyeighttothree

A true alpha No. 1 target in the passing game is still needed and help on the offensive line will never be turned down. But, a lot of holes remain on the defense with edge rusher and linebacker being the biggest. Lucky for them, this year’s edge rusher draft class is projected to be deep and talented, while Ohio State’s Sonny Styles is a personal favorite as an off-ball linebacker.

That’s all for this week’s #PostPulpit mailbag. If you have questions you’d liked to be answered next week, submit them online in our weekly submission post or on Twitter using #PostPulpit. Make sure to be following @iambrianhines and @PatsPulpit as well.