The New York Islanders are winners of six of their last eight games. They sit five points behind the red-hot […]
The New York Islanders are winners of six of their last eight games. They sit five points behind the red-hot Carolina Hurricanes for first in the metro (and the East). But Bo Horvat’s injury could mean trouble for the Islanders, especially if he’s sidelined longer than expected.
The Islanders are lucky Bo Horvat avoided a more serious fate. He fell awkwardly in a collision with Anaheim Ducks defenseman Drew Helleson in the Islanders’ 5-2 win on Dec. 11, and there was initial fear that Horvat would be sidelined for an extended period of time.
Bo Horvat is the Islanders’ best forward, and his being out with a lower-body injury makes the Islanders less potent. That shouldn’t come as a shock. He was on pace for a career-best season, notching 31 points, including 19 goals, in 32 games.
What’s interesting is how much the analytics showcase his importance to the team. With a roster already wrought with injury, Horvat’s absence becomes impossible to replicate for the time being.
Per Hockeystats.com, Bo Horvat is the 39th most valuable player in the NHL from 2024-26 with a +4.4 WAR. This means Bo Horvat, by himself, has contributed 4.4 more wins-above-replacement than a league-average forward during that span. The website currently does not currently have current-season only metrics publicly available in this category.
+4.4 WAR is higher than names such as Cole Caufield, John Tavares, and Evan Bouchard.
For reference, Horvat’s +4.4 WAR is almost triple that of the combined WAR of all other injured Islanders. The numbers for Pierre Engvall are +0.8, Alex Romanov is 0.0, and Kyle Palmieri is +0.8, for a combined +1.6 WAR. Hockeystats does not have WAR data for Semyon Varlamov.
The next closest Islanders still currently on the roster (Brock Nelson, for example, is excluded) are Mathew Barzal at +2.6 and Matthew Schaefer at +2.1.
Horvat’s individual metrics stand out across the board. Bo Horvat is paid handsomely, and for good reason. Most of his metrics are in the top half percentile of the entire NHL. Basically, the higher the percentage, the better that player is in that field relative to all other players in that position.
(Chart via Hockeystats.com)
All of this to say the Islanders are climbing an uphill battle without Horvat on the ice. Horvat could play Dec. 20 against Buffalo, but NHL coaches don’t tend to insert players back into the lineup coming off injury without having them practice first.
Say the Islanders give Horvat a full week to rest. That would make his return to the ice Dec.27 at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers.
Horvat would miss a total of five games. Since the injury, the Islanders took down the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and then fell to the Detroit Red Wings, with a 1-1 record through two games.
The upcoming schedule generally favors the Islanders. Their next three opponents are Vancouver, Buffalo, and New Jersey. The average points percentage of those teams is .504. The Islanders sit at .603.
But no game in the NHL is easy. As the calendar changes to 2026, this is generally the point of the season when teams begin to understand if they are contenders, pretenders, or sellers. There will be more pressure and eyes on each player on every roster as executives evaluate the future. The Islanders cannot afford to think any game will be an easy win, especially without Bo Horvat on the ice.
The East standings are another reason not to rest on complacency. The Islanders might appear to sit in a healthy playoff spot, but just nine points separate them and the dead-last Buffalo Sabres, winners of three straight.
Replacing Horvat’s goal scoring is difficult. Horvat is only one of two forwards with more than ten goals (Horvat 19, Heineman 11).
Using DailyFaceoff’s line projections as a template, the bottom six of Lee-Pageau-Holmstrom and MacLean-Cizikas-Gatcomb have scored a combined 25 goals.
A roadblock for the Islanders remains Max Tsyplakov, who, after a promising ten-goal, 25-assist NHL rookie campaign, has only mustered one single goal in 20 games this season and has been a healthy scratch on multiple occasions. If there was a player to step up in this situation, Tsyplakov should be a prime candidate, but his continuing struggles this season mean the Islanders have to look elsewhere to generate offense by committee.
Another issue is the Islanders’ power play. Currently sitting at 16.5%, 24th in the league, no Horvat means the Islanders will have to get creative to generate offense. Eleven of Horvat’s 31 points came on the power play. The only other Islanders player that comes close is Schaefer at ten. Mat Barzal is the second-highest forward with seven power play points on the season, six of those being assists.
The Islanders are no strangers to winning games by committee. Horvat’s injury poses their biggest challenge yet. It’s up to them to find enough goal scoring to mitigate the loss of man-power on the ice until his return.
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