Beneath The Numbers: Tommy Novak’s Potential 2025-26 Impact In Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Penguins made a trade that few saw coming before the 2025 trade deadline on March 5, dealing forward Michael Bunting and a 2026 fourth-round pick to the Nashville Predators in exchange for forward Tommy Novak and defenseman Luke Schenn. The Penguins also dealt defenseman Vincent Desharnais to the San Jose Sharks for a 2028 fifth-round pick on the same night after he didn't quite fit the team. He was part of the return the Penguins got from the Vancouver Canucks for Marcus Pettersson. 

The Penguins had planned to use Schenn in their lineup to end the season, but he wanted to join a contender. They were okay with that and traded him to the Winnipeg Jets on March 7 for a 2026 second-round pick and a 2027 fourth-round pick. Those two picks were great value for Schenn, considering that he's already 35. 

Going back to Novak, Penguins general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas confirmed that part of their reasoning for the trade was that Novak has an extra year left on his contract. 

"The motivation being that Tommy was younger, under team control for an additional season over [Bunting], carried a lower cap charge, and is primarily a center. We felt that carried a large amount of value as we move ahead here with our plans," part of Dubas's statement read, via email. 

Novak has two years left at $3.5 million per season compared to Bunting's $4.5 million cap hit for one season. The Penguins were eager to get Novak in their lineup for a test run to end the season, but he only played in two games before being lost for the season due to injury. He finished the season with 13 goals and 22 points in 54 games. 

Before he was dealt to the Penguins, he was generating offense fairly well with the Predators, even though they were one of the worst teams in the league. Novak's 5v5 CF% was 55.89% and his expected goal share was 56.16%. He was also on the ice for 57.5% of the scoring chances and 55.4% of the high-danger chances. 

Novak is a great play driver, and the Penguins want him to bring that in a big way this upcoming season. He also has an underrated release and compiled a career-high 18 goals during the 2023-24 season. Don't sleep on that 15.2 shooting percentage. 

He can play up and down the lineup and could even see some time at wing depending on what head coach Dan Muse wants to do with his lines. Despite being a center, Muse may want to see if Novak and the Penguins' second-line center, Evgeni Malkin, have any chemistry, as Novak's playstyle could mesh well with Malkin's. He'd be an instant upgrade on Malkin's line compared to who he played with for most of last season. 

Muse could also want Novak to center the third line and potentially play with winger Philip Tomasino, since the two were teammates in Nashville before coming to Pittsburgh in separate deals. Tomasino and Novak played 67:50 of 5v5 ice time together in the 2023-24 season, during which they had a 55.7 CF%, 54.7% of the expected goals, 62.6% of the scoring chances, and 64% of the high-danger chances. Yes, the sample size isn't that big, but they still had some chemistry. 

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Novak is a jack-of-all-trades, except on the penalty kill. He has hardly played on the PK since breaking into the NHL in 2021, and that looks unlikely to change this upcoming season. However, he does have a lot of power play experience and will likely be featured on the second power play unit when the season starts in October. He compiled 70 PP minutes for the Predators this past season after racking up a career-high 145 PP minutes in 2023-24. 

Many fans are focused on the core pieces and the younger players heading into next season, which makes sense. It's a developmental year, and fans want to see how some of the younger players, like Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen, do in top-six roles with Crosby and Malkin for a full year. Some fans are also excited to see if Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell can pick up from where they left off last year (assuming they don't get traded before the season). Rust finished last season with 31 goals and 65 points in 71 games, while Rakell compiled 35 goals and 70 points in 81 games. 

However, Novak is a player who shouldn't be overlooked. He can impact the game in all three zones and will be a solid contributor for the Penguins, assuming he stays healthy. 

(Data via Natural Stat Trick). 

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