C.J. Stroud will need to rebound with the Texans offense to regain the fantasy value from his rookie season. Pass-catching additions will help, but can the new offensive system create fantasy opportunity?
The Texans offense took a step back in 2024 after a hot start to C.J. Stroud’s career in 2023. Houston won the AFC South with a 10-7 record and lost in the Divisional Round for the second straight season. However, Stroud and the offense’s growth was visibly stunted as the Texans were lost in the shuffle of a very strong AFC group.
2024 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 21.9 (19th)
Total yards per game: 319.7 (22nd)
Plays per game: 62.2 (15th)
Dropbacks per game: 41.2 (12th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.01 (21st)
Rush attempts per game: 25.5 (22nd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.12 (23rd)
Can the Texans take two steps forward after one step back?
Head coach DeMeco Ryans has made the playoffs in both seasons as head coach of the Texans, building a surging squad with C.J. Stroud. Though the result was the same, the Houston offense stumbled in Stroud’s’ sophomore season. After ranking No. 13 and No. 12 in points per game and yards per game in 2023, the offense dropped to No. 19 and No. 22 in those ranks, respectively.
Play-caller Bobby Slowik was once considered for head coaching jobs around the league, but was let go with the offensive regression. Nick Caley joins the team as offensive coordinator after serving as the Rams’ passing game coordinator last season. After a shaky 2024 saw -0.04 EPA per play – No. 21 in the league - the Texans will re-tool and fantasy managers will hope Stroud can be more of a slinger, rather than a game manager behind an inefficient run game like last season showed.
Ryans has built a formidable defense with defensive coordinator Matt Burke. It is a unit that boasts the likes of Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley Jr. Meanwhile, the Texans’ special teams will continue to be led by electric special teams coach Frank Ross.
Passing Game
QB: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
WR: Nico Collins, Tank Dell (IR), Xavier Hutchison
WR: Jayden Higgins, John Metchie III
WR: Christian Kirk, Jaylin Noel
TE: Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan, Cade Stover
Houston has got a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. However, he regressed to less efficiency last season. The Texans offense ran on early downs often and Stroud threw shorter passes, dropping to 7.0 yards per attempt after 8.2 Y/A in 2023. His touchdown to interception ratio more than halved, decreasing from 4.6 to 1.7. Slowik’s play-calling and injuries to pass-catchers were a factor in regression, and though Texans fans should still be excited about Stroud, fantasy managers will have to be more realistic about his value. Stroud went from a solid QB1 to back-end QB2 and lacks rushing upside. A 0.01 Dropback EPA per play puts him at No. 21 in the league last season. To regain his top-13 mark from the 2023 season, Stroud will need to regain his downfield passing, something his receiving group is equipped to help with.
Stroud’s top pass-catcher is Nico Collins. The 26-year-old was off to a booming start prior to missing five games due to a hamstring injury. According to PFF, Collins posted 0.612 fantasy points per route run in the PPR format, best among wide receivers over the last two seasons. He is a yards per route run darling, averaging over 2.8 yards per route run each of the last two seasons – a top-five rank across all wideouts. If Stroud wants to go vertical, Collins will be the guy. Heck, even for crossing routes and intermediate throws to the sticks, Collins is the No. 1 pass-catcher for the Texans. Back-to-back seasons of at least 17 PPR fantasy points per game make Collins a top-ten fantasy wide receiver for 2025.
Chart: Football Insights
Behind Collins, the Texans have had to re-tool. Tank Dell suffered his second major leg injury, with a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL, MCL, and PCL from Week 16. He is unlikely to play in 2025 and Dynasty fantasy managers can stash him for now.
Stefon Diggs tore his ACL halfway through last season and is now on the Patriots. The Texans acquired Christian Kirk to help in the slot with Diggs now gone and Dell injured. The 28-year-old tallied caught 27-of-47 targets for 379 yards and one touchdown in eight games with the Jaguars last season. A broken collarbone kept him out of nine games in 2024 while a groin tear kept him out of five in 2023. Kirk’s best season was his last healthy one, averaging 14.2 PPR fantasy points in 2022. He won’t reach those heights again but volume as the slot receiver with the No. 2 pass-catching role open will get Kirk into WR4 range.
The Texans also drafted Iowa State receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to reinforce the receiver group. Higgins is the first second-rounder in NFL history to sign a fully guaranteed contract. With a big 6-foot-4, 214-pound frame, Higgins will be a contested-catch boundary receiver for Stroud. Noel is the team’s third-round receiver, profiling as fast slot receiver who also returned kicks in college. He will compete with Kirk for snaps and could play special teams for more playing time. The Cyclone rookies can both contribute in 2025 but Higgins has the likelier chance of earning the No. 2 pass-catching role and returning WR3 value. Noel is a late-round dart throw who will need an easier path to snaps before fantasy managers can consistently roster him.
John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson are still in the mix, returning in reserve roles. Neither have clear paths to fantasy relevance but are proven depth for the Texans. Barring injuries ahead of them or a big leap, they will be on redraft fantasy waivers.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz leads the way as he enters year two of a three-year, $36 million contract. A low-scoring year (two touchdowns) brought him a TE3 finish last season. He will be a short-yardage option but won’t be a part of too many explosive plays with the other options on offense. Brevin Jordan and Cade Stover will be the backups and only see fantasy-relevant opportunity in 2025 if either seizes the starting role or Schultz is out.
Running Game
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dameon Pearce, Woody Marks
OL (L-R): Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jarrett Patterson, Tytus Howard, Blake Fisher
The Texans return Joe Mixon at running back after a workhorse season. An ankle injury nagged him (and still is) but he saw 20 touches per game. This led to 17.2 PPR famtasy points per game and a back-end RB1 finish. However, efficiency was low for the Texans’ rushing offense, with -0.12 Rush EPA per play, No. 23 in the league. Early-down runs often stagnated the Houston offense and Mixon ranked No. 33 among running backs for yards per attempt, earning a 74.8 PFF rushing grade - good for No. 24. His pass-catching is a good outlet for Stroud and will boost his fantasy value after a 36-catch season. Though his efficiency numbers aren’t on par with other workhorses, Mixon has a history of handling a high volume. He will be an RB2 as long as he’s healthy.
The Texans added Nick Chubb to take on some of the downhill workload. After a brutal leg injury ended his 2023 early, he returned to 102 carries for 332 yards and three touchdowns in 2024. Chubb won’t be his old Pro Bowl self but is in the backup mix for carries. He will be in the RB4/5 range, though this will be more of a committee should Mixon miss time. Rookie fourth-rounder Woody Marks should take on some pass-catching after a 261-reception college career. He will be the complementary passing-down back in the committee. Dameon Pierce had a special teams role as a backup last season. Returning kicks is how he can stay with the team and get some reps in the backfield if Mixon is out.
The offensive line will be a big part of a Texans offensive bounce back. The group allowed 33 sacks last season and contributed to an inefficient run game. Laremy Tunsil is now gone and the likes of Laken Tomlinson, Cam Robinson, and second-round rookie Aireontae Ersay have joined the group. Replacing Tunsil will be difficult and Tomlinson isn't that much of an upgrade from Shaq Mason - neither posted a top-60 PFF offensive guard grade last season. Finding a combination of lineman that will protect Stroud and block for the run game better than last season will benefit the offense’s fantasy output.
Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 9.5
Pick: Over (+100)
After two straight 10 win seasons, the DraftKings line is set right at 9.5. The Texans are still a team in the early stages of building under the DeMerco Ryans – C.J. Stroud regime. A new offensive system may take time adjusting, but the team has playmakers to give the offense a good floor. A bounce back for Stroud and the offense would boost fantasy opportunity again for a team that struggled to have it for much of last season. In an AFC South division where multiple – or all (see: Jaguars) – teams are in a rebuilding phase, the Texans are headed for a third straight season of double-digit wins. The next step will be legitimate contention in the playoffs for this team.
Category: General Sports
