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The Commanders shocked the NFL world last season.

Washington Commanders fans were in purgatory for a long time. They were owed a season like 2024.

It's not hard to pick the highlight of a magical season led by historic rookie Jayden Daniels. The Hail Mary win over the Chicago Bears was one of the great finishes in NFL history. However, that was far from the only one. There was Daniels being nearly perfect early in the season as Washington knocked off the Bengals. Daniels beat the Eagles on a touchdown pass with six seconds left, and that was Philadelphia's only loss from September through the Super Bowl. The next week, Daniels and Washington toppled the Falcons on an overtime touchdown pass. It was a season full of moments that will be replayed by NFL Films for a long time.

Daniels had five touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of regulation or overtime, which was two more than any other quarterback since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. His 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime set an NFL rookie record. The good vibes kept going in the playoffs, when Daniels led a late game-winning drive in the wild card win at Tampa Bay, and then guided a shocking upset at Detroit to put Washington in its first NFC championship game since the 1991 season. It was an awesome, memorable season that drew plenty of Washington fans back in after they had given up during the woebegone, humiliating Daniel Snyder era.

It was also completely and entirely unsustainable.

[Get more Washington news: Commanders team feed]

Daniels could end up being the most clutch quarterback in NFL history and maybe never replicate what he did as a rookie. Washington caught a lot of breaks, not just with those memorable game-winning plays, but sometimes the fluky plays that set them up. An inordinate amount of close wins (the Commanders had nine wins in one-score games and five in games decided by three points or fewer, including playoffs) isn't the only regression factor either. The Commanders converted 20 of 23 fourth downs, and that 87% rate was by far the highest in modern NFL history. That will regress, perhaps by a lot.

The Commanders also benefitted from a soft schedule. Of Washington's 12 wins last season, 11 came against non-playoff teams. That was the most in the NFL. Winning two playoff games helps mitigate the concern that they were a product of an easy slate, but it's another factor that won't repeat with a tougher schedule. They also had the fifth fewest adjusted games lost due to injury, which was fairly lucky. And now Terry McLaurin is going public with his unhappiness over his contract situation.

It's OK to celebrate a storybook season, be excited for the future with an instant superstar at quarterback, and acknowledge that the next step may not be forward.

The Commanders were never meant to be a Super Bowl contender in 2025, and absolutely no one expected it in 2024. The roster needed a lot of work going into last season; it looked like a long-term rebuild. But GM Adam Peters did a good job boosting roster depth last offseason, new coach Dan Quinn was a strong candidate to win NFL Coach of the Year, Daniels changed practically everything, and the Commanders arrived much sooner than expected. That doesn't mean all the holes on the roster were filled.

Maybe Daniels is so good that Washington will never slip. He was incredible last season and probably deserved to make a few NFL MVP ballots, even as a rookie. But the same things were said about C.J. Stroud a year ago, and his play slipped a bit in his second season.

Washington needed a season like 2024. A lot of fans were driven away by Snyder. That's replaced by a generation of fans wearing No. 5 jerseys and reminiscing for years over all the spectacular moments from Daniels' rookie season. Now we'll find out if the good times continue in Daniels' second season.

Offseason grade

The Commanders' big season might have sped up their internal thinking on becoming a contender. The two biggest moves of the offseason were trades for older veterans. Washington traded a lot to the Texans for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and a fourth-round pick, giving up 2025 third- and seventh-round picks, and 2026 second- and fourth-round picks. Tunsil will be 31 years old this season, but is a major upgrade for a line that needed it. The second big move was for receiver Deebo Samuel, who was acquired from the 49ers for a fifth-round pick. Samuel is 29 and coming off the lowest yards-per-game output of his career. The big free-agent addition was defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, who got a three-year, $45 million deal that was viewed as an overpay. Washington cut longtime defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, who was signed for $51 million over three years by the Vikings. They added Von Miller iust this week, after his release from the Bills. The draft brought first-round pick Josh Conerly Jr., who could be the team's starting right tackle right away, and second-round pick Trey Amos to help at cornerback. Those were the team's only picks in the top 127. Tunsil and Samuel should provide some short-term value, and those moves show that the team entered win-now mode sooner than expected.

Grade: B

Quarterback report

A year ago in the Texans preview, we listed the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history and posited that C.J. Stroud had a good argument as No. 1 in an impressive group:

1983 Dan Marino

2004 Ben Roethlisberger

2011 Cam Newton

2012 Andrew Luck

2012 Robert Griffin III

2012 Russell Wilson

2016 Dak Prescott

2020 Justin Herbert

2023 C.J. Stroud

If Stroud did have the best rookie season ever, he might have held the title for only one season. Last season Jayden Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns with a 100.1 rating, while also rushing for an NFL rookie quarterback record 891 yards, with six rushing touchdowns. He also led multiple miraculous finishes and a deep playoff run. He was simply unbelievable. It has to be mentioned that Stroud followed up his historic rookie season with a much tougher second season, and Daniels isn't immune from having a sophomore slump. But make no mistake: Daniels had what looks like the greatest rookie QB season ever, is already one of the NFL's best quarterbacks and with all apologies to Jalen Hurts, he has a good argument as the best quarterback in the NFC already.

Jayden Daniels (5) and Terry McLaurin (17) helped lead the Commanders to their first NFC championship game since the 1991 season. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Jayden Daniels entered last season as a rookie and this season as arguably the best quarterback in the NFC. The Commanders traded for WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil, and drafted Josh Conerly Jr. in Round 1 to help Daniels. The Commanders are favored in 12 games, but also have some tough road games sprinkled throughout (at Chargers, at Packers, at Chiefs, at Vikings, along with two clashes against the Eagles. A win total of 9.5 at BetMGM – the franchise’s highest since 2001 – seems a tad optimistic, but it’s hard to envision the Commanders (-160 to make playoffs) missing the postseason if Daniels stays healthy."

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Deebo Samuel was a first-team All-Pro receiver back in 2021, but that feels like a lifetime ago. He's missed chunks of time in the past three seasons (he was also hurt for most of 2020) and the 49ers practically gave him away in trade, recouping just a fifth-round pick from Washington. I still expect Terry McLaurin to be the featured target here — the contract stuff should work itself out — and I'm not betting on Samuel onboarding quickly to his new team. Although Samuel's ADP has slipped just outside the Yahoo Top 100, I still can't view him as a proactive pick."

Stat to remember

Washington scored 45 points and put up 481 yards in a stunning win over the Lions in the divisional around, and both numbers were the second-most in a playoff game in franchise history. Jayden Daniels' 350 combined yards passing and rushing were the second-most for a rookie quarterback in NFL history, and he was the second rookie quarterback to lead his team to a win over a conference No. 1 seed in NFL history, joining Joe Flacco. Even if the Commanders benefitted from close wins and a favorable schedule, blasting a 15-2 Lions team in Detroit by a 45-31 score opened up a lot of eyes. A wild-card win the week before at Tampa Bay was impressive too. The playoff run to the NFC championship game raised the bar for the Commanders going into this season and beyond.

Burning question

Can Washington's defense improve to being average?

Just like the playoff wins at Tampa Bay and Detroit helped elevate Washington's profile, a 55-23 loss to the Eagles in the NFC championship game showed that the defense still needs plenty of work. Philadelphia tied an NFL playoff record seven touchdown runs in that game and the 55 points scored were the most ever in a conference championship game. Washington allowed 106 points in three playoff games, and 980 yards in the final two games. The Commanders' only Pro Bowler on defense last season was linebacker Bobby Wagner, who is a future Hall of Famer but also will be 35 years old this season. He won't be great forever, though it seems that way. Washington needs to upgrade its defensive talent but the team's two biggest trade acquisitions and its first-round pick were at offensive tackle and receiver. Signing defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw helps, though that might be offset by cutting Jonathan Allen, and Von Miller could contribute. Signing cornerback Jonathan Jones and safety Will Harris as well as drafting cornerback Trey Amos should upgrade the secondary, and Dan Quinn remains a great defensive mind, but it's still hard to figure out where a major improvement comes from a defense that was 23rd in DVOA and 22nd in EPA (expected points added) last season.

Best case scenario

When a player has what is widely considered the greatest season for a rookie quarterback ever, it's hard to put a limit on his future. After what Jayden Daniels did last season, coming off a Heisman Trophy season in college, it's not crazy to think he could win NFL MVP this season and maybe a few more in the future. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes each won MVP their second seasons, and Daniels could find himself in their QB tier by next year (if he's not there already). Unless you're the 2024 Bengals, having an MVP-level quarterback usually means a playoff berth and contender status. It's hard to imagine the Commanders winning a Super Bowl with some of their roster holes at running back, on the offensive and defensive lines and in the secondary. But they had those deficiencies last season too and found themselves in the NFL's final four. Laremy Tunsil and rookie Josh Conerly Jr. could transform the offensive line, and Deebo Samuel could have a rejuvenation in Washington and help Terry McLaurin get more single coverage as he comes off a career year. Could the Commanders be a very surprising Super Bowl team? Probably not, but when you have a talent like Daniels at quarterback it can't be ruled out. He really might be that good.

Nightmare scenario

We don't remember it anymore, but the concern about Jayden Daniels a year ago was that he might be susceptible to injury because of his somewhat slight build as a running quarterback. Daniels was healthy all last season. Saying the nightmare scenario for a team is an injury to its quarterback isn't a revelation; that's almost every team's fear. Things could go wrong for Washington other than a Daniels injury. He could regress in his second season like some other NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners. There are still many questions around him. Maybe the Commanders find out that Deebo Samuel isn't the playmaker he once was, Laremy Tunsil was a reason Houston had a horrid offensive line last season, the uninspiring running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler can't support Daniels, Terry McLaurin's contract situation impacts his play, and a defense that wasn't very good last season isn't much help at all. Had the Commanders lost every regular-season game decided by three or fewer points last season, they would have finished 8-9. That's unfair because Washington should usually have a better record than expected in close games due to Daniels, but it shows that the Commanders having a losing season isn't farfetched. And while that much of a dip would feel like a big disappointment, the real explanation would probably be that the good fortune from 2024 just swung too far the other way.

The crystal ball says

I was high on the Commanders last season and thought they could be the NFL's surprise playoff team (and yes, there are receipts). That's why it's hard to turn on them this season. Washington's ride last season was incredibly fun and deserved. Jayden Daniels is already one of the faces of the NFL and has an MVP future. But even an optimistic outlook on the Commanders a year ago didn't have them as a 12-win team that would make the NFC championship game. Improving upon that will be very, very hard. The Commanders deserve a lofty ranking here after last season's breakout, but with caveats that there are too many regression factors to ignore. Washington wasn't supposed to be a contender already. An extraordinary season in which the Commanders caught numerous green lights doesn't change that. The Commanders will be good again, and perhaps Daniels is so good that he can keep all of those luck factors from last season from evening out, but let's assume their record will be a bit worse and maybe they miss the playoffs. And that will be OK. No matter what happens this season, the future is very bright.

Category: General Sports