Who do the Blazers Protect in an Expansion Draft?

The time-honored August tradition of hypothetical think pieces that have no impact on the coming season are well and truly upon us.

In recent years, one such exercise has been speculation on NBA expansion and, in the case of Blazer’s Edge, discussing who the Portland Trail Blazers would protect in an expansion draft. The Blazers are in an interesting position coming out of a rebuild with a collection of players on rookie-scale deals and second contracts garnished with three guys in their 30s.

Rules of expansion drafts

The last expansion draft took place in 2004 with the introduction of the Charlotte Bobcats. Back then, each team protected up to eight players. If a franchise had fewer than eight players on its roster, it was still required to leave at least one player unprotected.

The Bobcats were required to select a minimum of 14 players and could select only one player from any one NBA team.

We’re using similar rules today with one pretty big caveat. Past expansion drafts have taken place before the NBA Draft and free agency. As a result, the Blazers would hypothetically have to make tougher decisions with more contracted players, relative to what there would have been in June.

The below lists are ordered from highest to lowest priority.

Protected

Deni Avdija

No surprises here. The Israeli is currently the best player on the roster, competitive on both sides of the ball, and able to create for himself and others. Right now, he’s also the Blazer closest to an All-Star appearance — though closest doesn’t necessarily mean close.

Toumani Camara

The Belgian, along with Avdija, is as untouchable as they come. His place in last season’s NBA All-Defense Second Team solidified his bona fides on that end while serving as the Blazers’ best rotation three-point shooter. Camara isn’t far away from his ceiling as an elite 3-and-D wing.

Shaedon Sharpe

Sharpe could still own this franchise’s biggest upside, but there are a lot more maybes in that discussion than there were two years ago. The Canadian’s ability to score around the rim is as near-elite as it’ll get, so the benchmark for Sharpe’s greatness hinges on his three-point shot, defense, and engagement. With his restricted free agency hitting next summer, the Blazers still need to see more before they even begin thinking about letting him go.

Donovan Clingan

Last year’s number seven pick is already an elite defensive big man. Despite obvious offensive and fitness concerns, Clingan on a rookie-scale deal is worth a heck of a lot to the Blazers. Whether he’s the center of the future remains to be seen, but right now he’s in line for as many minutes at the five as he can handle.

Yang Hansen

The enigmatic rookie with potential to burn will be based at the Tualatin practice facility for the foreseeable future. Whether he is Chinese Jokic/Sengun or out of the league by the end of his rookie-scale deal, the Blazers used their most recent first round pick on him and will give him every opportunity to succeed.

Scoot Henderson

This is Henderson’s year to shine. There’s no way the Blazers are letting him go before he has a chance to show how good he can be and before Damian Lillard is ready to play. Even if Henderson isn’t a Blazer forever, he still has potential and youth on his side to serve as a key trade piece if he doesn’t work out.

Damian Lillard

Lillard stays and not solely for basketball reasons. If the franchise left Lillard unprotected, the relationship between the team and its arguable greatest player would be forever harmed, particularly following the recent reunion and the apparent good will.

Jrue Holiday

Holiday was somehow my hardest keep here because of his age the money he’s owed. If the Blazers did leave him exposed and he was picked up, they would clear real cap space for the summer of 2026. But I’m keeping him for the single fact that the 35-year-old appears to be in demand and of interest to other franchises. If Portland sees Holiday as being surplus to their needs, they should still be able to move him for a positive return.

Exposed

Matisse Thybulle

This was the hardest omission. Thybulle is on an extremely team-friendly expiring deal who, when healthy, is still one of the league’s best defenders. It might be irresponsible leaving the 27-year-old exposed but losing him would be a little more acceptable then parting with the above eight names.

Jerami Grant

Grant lost a lot of fans after his down season last year. While I still believe in the veteran forward, I think the franchise is at a point where it wouldn’t be too unhappy if another franchise took him and his $30-plus million a year deal off their hands. I still have hope the 31-year-old returns to form, giving the Blazers more leverage in trade negotiations but I also understand the fact that he doesn’t deserve to be in the above group.

Kris Murray

The former first-round pick showed real progress last season, but when push comes to shove his contribution can pretty easily be found elsewhere, particularly if his three-point shot never comes around.

Rayan Rupert

The 21-year-old Frenchman still has time to be something, but we’re yet to see it in regular rotation minutes. If he finds a role in the NBA, I’d be pleased for the former New Zealand Breaker. For now, he’s not impactful enough to protect.

Robert Williams III

Williams’ Portland career has been nothing short of a disappointment. The former All-Defensive talent is a wanted player in theory, but his body is unfortunately yet to cooperate.

Duop Reath

The Australian national representative is an interesting offensive foil. Unfortunately, his body type makes the 29-year-old a liability on the defensive side at both the four and the five.

Blake Wesley

Wesley was brought in as guard insurance and, if all goes well is unlikely to see the floor too much this season.

Conclusion

Jrue Holiday vs Matisse Thybulle was far and away the hardest decision. I went with Holiday based on his skillset, experience, and ability. But if the Blazers opted for Thybulle, it would be completely understandable.

Lillard also made the cut even though he won’t play this season. The nine-time All Star’s return to Oregon was more than just for basketball reasons. If the Blazers left him exposed, it’d be pretty poor form after the point guard spent his prime in Portland without the requisite support to win a title.

The rest of the keepers are Deni Avdija and a bunch of a rookie-scale contracted players who will hopefully see the franchise through its next competitive era.