The Three Point Stance: Purdue vs Ball State

The college football season has officially begun and that means Purdue fans will finally get to see the start of the Barry Odom era in West Lafayette. Not much will look familiar this season as Purdue features the most flipped roster in all of college football with 54 imported players coming in with the new staff. That means it is going to be tough to know what Purdue needs to do to get an important win in game one of the 2025 season.

That being said, let’s get into it!

# 1 – Feed the Mock-Train

The best returning player on the entire roster, Devin Mockobee will be looked at as the driving force for the Boilers on offense. With a totally flipped roster around him that will likely feature eight to ten new starters around him (depending on your definitions), Mockobee’s ability to net positive yards in the run game are important. His elusiveness around the line of scrimmage has been evident since his breakout game at Minnesota a number of seasons ago but with a poor offensive line last season, he was frequently bottled up. A return to form where he is given some space to work with would be a welcome sight.

Where Mockobee needs to show an improvement is in catching the ball out of the backfield. If he can provide a threat there and make himself a more complete back, it eases the burden on the receivers and most important the quarterback. Both of those positions don’t currently have a known big play threat and until one emerges, Mockobee is going to be the guy. 

Look for the Mock-Train to get plenty of opportunities on Saturday and he’ll need to have a good game in every game for Purdue to have chances to win. 125 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns would set the tone in the running game to be the focus of opposing defenses moving forward.

#2 – Ryan Browne Shows Improvement

Ryan Browne decided in the spring that he would leave Purdue and head to Chapel Bill..I mean Chapel Hill, and see where he stood at UNC. Turns out, the grass isn’t always greener (or golden) on the other side. Browne returned in the summer and the coaching staff was thrilled that he would help bolster a position they felt has been pretty underwhelming given the focus they had put on it in the transfer portal.

Browne has shown a high level playmaking ability in his opportunities to play at length in games for the Boilers. Notably last season against the Illini where he nearly brought Purdue back for a major upset win against what would be a 10-win team. He is a threat in the passing game but also in the running game to escape the pocket and in the planned QB run game. For a staff that seems to value the ability of a QB to be a threat in the running game to provide advantages against the defense, Browne is the best of the bunch this season.

Being perfect isn’t the expectation and it certainly doesn’t equate to season long success (see Hudson Card against ISU last season vs. the rest of the season), but Browne needs to show growth since last season to solidify one of the biggest question marks on the team. If he can do that, Purdue can get to 4 wins and flirt with a bowl game. If not, it’ll be a long, long season. For confidence to rise, it would be nice to see Browne complete 60% of his passes for 225+ yards passing and 2 touchdowns.

#3 – The Defense Needs to Be Average

Defense under Ryan Walters was, how do I say this really nicely…turrible (in my best Charles Barkley voice). That’s an odd thing to say considering Walters was considered one of the best defensive coordinators in the country coming into his hiring at Purdue. With the poor performance and a new staff, a mass of defections occurred and left Barry Odom with probably the biggest rebuild in the entire country on one side of the ball. Seriously, Saturday will probably feature zero starters from a season ago on the defensive side of the ball.

The defense has to prove a LOT for things to go right this season, notably generating a pass rush, getting tackles for loss, and generating turnovers. Those are the foundational pieces for a defense, outside of simply tackling well, and those tend to show up pretty quickly once the season starts. Ball State isn’t a MAC school like Ohio or Toledo that tend to be at the upper levels of that conference and if Purdue struggles defensively for extended times to do those things, it may be another long season in West Lafayette. 

What do we need to see? 3 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, and 2 turnovers while limiting Ball State to 17 points or less would be a huge win (as long as the offense does their part).

Prediction

This one shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Boilers, even if they have the highest rate of turnover in any program heading into the 2025 season. There should always be a distinct difference in the talent gap between a B1G program and one from the MAC who has historically not been very good. This should be even wider with the advent of NIL and open transfers where MAC schools will get hit harder than those from the power conferences.

Purdue may struggle to start the game as they look to get their legs under them from the new staff and all of the new players. Eventually, you would think, the talent would take over and playmakers start to make plays. I think everyone wants to see Ryan Browne in a full capacity as quarterback given he has looked good in his previous games against Illinois (2024) and Northwestern (2023). He has what appears to be a solid set of weapons if they are healthy (Burhenn  and Morissette currently not expected to play) and an offensive line that should be markedly better than the previous two seasons.

Purdue will get a good game from Devin Mockobee like they usually do and Purdue should salt this one away early in the third quarter. The big question will be what the defense looks like and if it isn’t good against Ball State, it likely means another very long and unproductive season for the Boilers.

Purdue: 41

Ball State: 14