Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Florida State Seminoles will open their 2025 season by hosting the 8th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and unveiling their updated Doak Campbell Stadium after a two-year renovation that began after the 2023 season. The football program and their fans are hoping these ceremonies exorcise the demons from the 2024 football season.

Florida State and Alabama will meet for the only the 6th time, with Bama leading the series 3-1-1. This will be the Tide’s first visit to Tallahassee, with FSU winning their only other game in Florida, a 21-14 victory in the 2007 game played in Jacksonville. In their last meeting in 2017, Alabama beat FSU 24-7 in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game played in Atlanta. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. and will be televised on the ABC network and streamed by ESPN.

Both teams will be starting new QBs for this matchup. FSU’s Tommy Castellanos, who spent his freshman season at UCF under new FSU OC Gus Malzahn, comes to Florida State after accounting for 4,921 yards of total offense in 21 games played during the 2023 and 2024 seasons at Boston College. He is one of only five players in the ACC this century to pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season (2,248 & 1,113 in 2023).

Alabama’s Ty Simpson was named the starting quarterback by 2nd-year head coach Kalen DeBoer to replace two-year starter Jalen Milroe. This will mark Simpson’s first-career start for the Tide. In his limited action over the last 3 years, Simpson has completed 29-of-50 (58.0 percent) passes for 381 yards in 16 career games, while carrying 22 times for 130 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and three touchdowns on the ground.

According to FanDuel, the Seminoles are 13.5-point underdogs against the Tide, with the over/under set at 50.5.

Enjoy the video from Bobby Bowden’s win over Nick Saban, and then there’s Alabama’s 2017 win over the Noles.

• Curt Weiler(season record: 0-0)

Some things are lining up for FSU in this game. It came out of camp fairly healthy while Alabama will be without more starters and key players. Getting to play this game at home in a stadium full of active fans desperate to move past the 2024 debacle with a statement win could be a boost.

FSU absolutely can win this game. But as I’ve said a lot this offseason, they’re going to have to show it to me for me to believe it after last year.

Bama 31, FSU 21

• Jordan Silversmith (season record: 0-0)

While I do not believe that the result of this game will be an indictment of how Florida State’s season will go, Saturday could not be a worse matchup for FSU. A veteran, physical team comes to town looking to make a statement after a disappointing season a year ago. Alabama has proven players and an edge over the Seminoles at virtually every position across the board. The rain could make for a sloppy contest, allowing Florida State to keep it close, but I do not know the path for Mike Norvell’s team to victory this weekend.

ALA 35, FSU 10

• Jacob Smith(season record: 0-0)

Florida State is in perhaps the worst possible position to be in as of now. Pundits across the country are rightfully labeling this team as doing nothing this season, and it doesn’t help that Tommy Castellanos has put a gigantic target on this team’s back for the first game. I have more faith in Alabama completely dominating the Seminoles in all three phases of the game rather than Florida State squeaking out a win. I hope I’m wrong.

Alabama 41, FSU 24

• NoleThruandThru(season record: 0—0)

Finally, FSU will be able to begin taking steps to wash out the filthy taste of last season. I’m hoping that FSU fans show up early and stay into the evening, and that the nation will once again see how formidable Doak can be when the crowd is engaged and rocking.

Alabama has some significant injuries and while I hate that one kid’s misfortune is another kid’s gain, a couple of the matchups have become more even or slanted in FSU’s favor. I am hoping to see a competitive game with numerous positive moments for the Seminoles to build upon, but I think the lack of quality depth in several units will be exposed. FSU puts up a great fight but the Tide pulls away midway through the fourth quarter.

Alabama 31, FSU 21

• Tim Scribble

I initially thought Alabama by 20 before the injuries started rolling in for the Tide. The DT injury could really allow the FSU run game to find success, but in the end, I still think it’s too much “new” for FSU to overcome.

Alabama 27, FSU 17

• Matt Minnick (season record: 0-0)

If the game was a month ago, my answer would have been something along the lines of “Bama blows open a close-ish game in the third and wins by three touchdowns.” But a string of impactful injuries for the visitors has the Tide looking a bit weaker coming into this one. 

Do I think a re-invented FSU roster pulls out a win? No. But I do think the chances of an upset are at least in the 35% range as opposed to mid-teens. Ultimately, I’ll be happy if we just look competent on offense and physical on D.

Bama 28, FSU 20

• Frank DeÑole (season record: 0-0)

If FSU can score more often than not, which could happen if the Noles and their new QB can run Gus’s offense the way it’s supposed to be run, against a weakened Tide front and average defense.

On the other side of the ball, to win the game, the defense will have to perform like they haven’t performed since 2023 in order to stop Alabama’s offense, and that will probably be difficult to do for 4 quarters.

However, the home crowd in the refurbished stadium will inspire the players to play harder, give 110% more effort, want it more, and play with more heart than their more talented opponents, keeping the Noles in the game to win by a field goal and putting the nation on notice.

FSU Seminoles 31, Tide 28

• LastNoleOfKrypton(season record: 0-0)

FSU 24, UF 21

• Jon Marchant (season record: 0-0)

Florida 38, FSU 9

• Perry Kostidakis (season record: 0-0)

FSU 23, Florida 20

Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

• Line of Scrimmage: Previewing Alabama with Roll Bama Roll-After a long offseason, college football is finally upon us. All the anguish from last year, the transfer portal, high school recruiting, lack of spring games, and end zone painting has all led to this moment. Will it all be worth it?
• Taking stock of FSU: 3 strengths, 3 weakness, 3 question marks heading into Florida State vs. Alabama
• 4 bold predictions for FSU’s 2025 football season –Football season is here. Soon enough, we’ll have real, tangible results to argue about, instead of hypotheticals. Before we get there, I’m making my final guesses of how I see things playing out for the Seminoles this year.
• Taking stock of FSU:3 strengths, 3 weakness, 3 question marks heading into Florida State vs. Alabama–it’s time to take stock of the Seminoles heading into Saturday.
• Drawing It Up:A Deeper Look at the 3-3-5’s Blitzes–The history of the zone blitz can show us the way
• Drawing It Up: Explaining the 3-3-5 defense and what it means for FSU–Florida State’s defense will look very different in 2025
• Drawing It Up: Breaking down the quadruple option–Can Castellanos make the right reads?
• Column: At long last, talking season is almost over — it’s time for FSU football-It’s always a joy when college football’s excruciatingly long offseason comes to an end.
• Column: Florida State’s gameday identity crisis has program at a crossroads–…the renovations have drawn heavy criticism from many…for reducing capacity and pricing out the average fan.
• What are realistic expectations for FSU in 2025?–Do the Noles have the pieces to be competitive in 2025?
• FSU’s revamped receiver room has the pieces for 2025 rebound-Across the 2025 Florida State roster, there’s a general feeling of needing to prove it on the field after how miserable the 2024 season went. But that may apply to no position group more than FSU’s wide receiver room.
• How To Watch: Florida State vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
• TN Staff Predictions: Staff Roundtable and Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
• Depth Chart: FSU releases first depth chart of the 2025 season
• Injury Updates:FSU wide receiver Lawayne McCoy and defensive tackle Kevin Wynn out for Alabama game
• Media Monday: “What better way to kick it off than here at Doak Campbell Stadium?” Norvell talks depth chart, FSU vs. Alabama-In head coach Mike Norvell’s eyes, it’s a perfect way to start the year.
• 2025 FSU football guide: Position previews, schedule breakdown, team profiles, Vegas odds and more
• FSU names The Battle’s End as official NIL collective of Seminoles’ athletics, Jordan Travis joins as ambassador
• RECRUITING THREAD #3 is up– NoleThruandThru and Josh Pick keep you up to date on the LATEST FSU RECRUITING NEWS @ Tomahawk Nation’s hub for all things relating to Florida State football recruiting-FSU Football: OFFICIAL #Tribe26 Recruiting and Transfer Portal Thread #3

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: How to watch

Date

• Saturday, August 30th

Time

• 3:30 p.m. Eastern

Watch/Stream

• ABC
• https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/eventCalendarId/401752665

Listen

• Seminoles Radio Network

FSU Broadcast: CH. 161/193/SXM App

Spread

• -13.5, Alabama

Over/Under

• 50.5

Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. For details, see https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/