The past and the future of Texas Football’s Red Zone identity

Steve Sarkisian isn’t always the coach who’s looking to incite laughs at his weekly press conferences, but a certain question in Monday’s press conference meant Sark couldn’t help himself.

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As most people in the room might have expected, Kirk Bohls was curious about the red zone offense—as is everyone in Austin these past few years—but the veteran reporter often can’t help himself when it comes to picking Sarkisian’s brain on the topic.

How did Sark respond?

“You guys want a really cool stat…?”

It was a rare break in his usually free-flowing nature of speech. The seven-second pause had the media room laughing, but Sarkisian did have an idea he wanted to point out.

“Two years ago, we were just over 50% on touchdowns in the red area,” Sarkisian said. “Last year, we were at 64% touchdowns in the red area. So we did make some improvements. We just need to continue to improve.”

Still a bit of a superficial response from Sarkisian, but he’s not wrong. Texas has shown improvements in the red zone from 2023 to 2024.

But we still don’t know what the plan is going forward. A great team wants to operate closer to 75% in the red zone, like the Longhorns did in 2021. That was thanks to having the best RB in the nation in Bijan Robinson, alongside a bruising rusher in Roschon Johnson to take care of everything inside the 20.

Last season, Texas saw improvement in the red area due to two players in particular: Matthew Golden and Jaydon Blue. The two combined for 35% of the team’s touchdowns, as well as six of the final 13 scored by the Longhorns in the final five games of the year. Much of Blue’s success actually came in the passing game, where he scored from within 30 yards against Texas A&M and twice against Ohio State.

His three plays featured a wheel to the right past zone coverage for seven yards against Texas A&M, a wheel to the left against man for 18 yards against Ohio State, and, you guessed it, a wheel route to the left on a busted coverage from 26 yards out.

Unfortunately for Texas, the Longhorns don’t have another back that can operate as well as Blue in the passing game. They will try to emulate it with Quintrevion Wisner, but he lacks the speed and hands to make explosive passing plays out of the backfield.

Golden’s bread and butter was in two spots: within the five, and between 20–30 yards out. He scored eight of his nine touchdowns on the year from those positions. At the goal line, Golden was elite in isolation. One-on-one, make a move and get to the pylon. That play was money all season long.

Again, though, Texas doesn’t have the route-running and high-pointing technician on their roster in 2025. Maybe a WR like Ryan Wingo or DeAndre Moore Jr. turns into that player, but currently, that’s not a play type they can rely on.

The solutions in 2025 likely rely on two players: Arch Manning and CJ Baxter.

Manning has already shown his ability to make big plays inside the red area, scoring the first touchdown against A&M on a 15-yard scramble. His bruising rushing style makes him an obvious candidate to score from short yardage. When Texas is within 15 yards, defenses are going to need to account for at least one body to focus on Manning and his legs. Read options, QB power, and scramble drills are all in play with Arch at QB.

Baxter is the big wildcard because we didn’t get a chance to see him last year. He’s Texas’ most physical back and showed it at times in 2023, scoring four red zone touchdowns, including two in the final two games of the year, but he has battled back from a gruesome injury for the last 12 months. If Baxter has enhanced his game to operate better in short yardage, Texas may not have a red zone problem anymore.

A high-level Baxter next to Manning is going to be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, and it unlocks so much in different packages. You can run 12 personnel and add a huge body like Spencer Shannon or Jordan Washington to the mix. We dare you to stop that run, or maybe we’ll pull back and hit Moore, Wingo, or Jack Endries on a hitch route.

What about 21 personnel? Wisner and Baxter on both sides of Manning could open up even more options. I’ll do you one better: Ryan Niblett in the Jaydon Blue role. Niblett possesses the speed and hands that Blue brought to the red zone, and he’ll be a matchup nightmare for LBs forced onto him in the passing game.

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A formation that includes Manning, Baxter, Endries, Wingo, Moore, and another TE or RB has the potential to be one of the best in the SEC in the red area. The keyword, of course, is potential, and that’s all we have to work with until OSU.