Series Preview: Mariners (70-61) vs. Padres (74-57)

A matchup between two second-place clubs trying to dethrone longtime juggernauts in their divisions? Huh-uh-Hawwwuhhhh, yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah it’s time once more for the Vedder Cup. Both ballclubs would really prefer to be playing someone else at this stage in the season, given their relative insignificance to one another in the playoff hunt and overall strength, but this year the Cup features an actual trophy, designed by the man himself. Seattle’s sweep of San Diego in May has the M’s in great position to bring home the hardware.

The Padres are a fascinating facsimile of the 2024 Mariners, with the second-best run prevention in MLB but an inconsistent lineup of stars and scrubs that’s got them in the bottom third of the league by runs scoring as well. Neck and neck with the Dodgers in the standings and in BaseRuns, these days these ‘Dres are powered by a dynamite bullpen that has four or five relievers who could easily close for many clubs. Their rotation has been beleaguered by injury and some underperformance, but the formula is simple enough — get a lead early and vicegrip it.

Much like Seattle’s current order, it’s astonishing to gaze at San Diego’s top nine and know that this team has been one of the worst at scoring runs in baseball this season. The entire likely starting nine save for their backstops are above-average bats, including bounce-back campaigns from Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Tatis that continue validating the Friars’ investments in their roster. San Diego has shed Jason Heyward, Tyler Wade, and Brandon Lockridge from their lineup since Seattle last played them, in favor of the Orioles escapees O’Hearn and Laureano. Catcher remains a flaw in the order, as Luis Campusano’s suspension left an already questionable group entirely dubious. Recent injury to star CF Jackson Merrill has him out of the lineup for the length of Seattle’s series.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

JP Sears is a familiar foe, having been drafted and developed by the Mariners and spending the last three years as the A’s de facto ace. His extreme fly ball tendencies were lessened a touch last year after he added a sinker to his pitch mix, but he still allowed 28 home runs to fly over the fence. Despite the continued dinger problem, he actually lowered his ERA a bit while still outpacing his FIP and xFIP by pretty wide margins.

Even after being traded away from the A’s at the trade deadline, the Mariners can’t escape facing JP Sears for the third time this season.

Dylan Cease is in the middle of a really weird year in his second season with the Padres. All of his peripherals look in line with his career norms — he’s still striking out more than 30% of the batters he’s facing and his contact management peripherals look pretty decent. Despite all this, his ERA is more than a full run higher than his FIP and it’s a little hard to figure out why. His BABIP is more than 50 points higher than last year and his LOB rate is a tiny bit lower than normal. 

The walls may finally be closing in on Yu Darvish. Less than two weeks removed from his 39th birthday, he’ll take on Seattle in the midst of his worst stateside season by many metrics. The Japanese star has struck out just 22% of opponents this year, a sum that’s been in consistent decline since 2020, but he continues to kitchen sink his way through outings as he gets further from the elbow inflammation that kept him sidelined for the first half of 2025.

The Big Picture:

Houston mostly took care of business in Baltimore after dropping a series at home to the Birds to start the week, leaving things where they’ve spent much of the last month and change. Two games separate Seattle and the division lead, with the Astros hosting the Colorado Rockies for three in their final true cakewalk matchup of the season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have crept back into shouting distance with a hot weekend, doing the absolute worst they could for the Guardians by dropping three of four to the Royals, then sweeping Cleveland back into a losing record. They’ll take on the Angels, while Kansas City gets one last feast of the White Sox. 

Above Seattle, the heavyweight bout between Boston and New York went the Red Sox way, as it has all season, with the reeling Bronx Bombers salvaging Sunday’s game before heading to D.C.. They can share the train with the BoSox, who will get off just a bit sooner and face Baltimore for four. The theme is clear: M’s opponents will be having favorable matchups the next three days while Seattle faces an NL heavyweight, mentally prepare now.