Texas football game-by-game schedule prediction probabilities from ESPN computers

ESPN has used its super computers to predict the probability of each game on the 2025 Texas Longhorns football schedule. What is Texas' final record?

The new Texas Longhorns football season begins in less than a week. The hype is building towards the first game of the campaign, a rematch of last year's college football semifinal in the Cotton Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Texas is led by new starting quarterback Arch Manning. After two years on the bench behind Quinn Ewers, the former No. 1 recruit in the nation will take over a Longhorns offense that should be even more dynamic in 2025.

UT's defense could be one of the best in college football. Anthony Hill, Colin Simmons and Michael Taaffe are all preseason first-team All-Americans and provide leadership at all three position groups.

The Longhorns enter the year as the preseason No. 1 team in both the AP Top 25 poll and the US LBM Coaches Poll for the first time in school history.

Now that we know what the press and coaches think of Texas before the season starts, what do the ESPN super computers think? ESPN's FPI predicts every game of the season and has an optimistic view of the coming season.

Aug. 31: Texas Longhorns at Ohio State Buckeyes

Jan 19, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; An Ohio State Buckeyes helmet at College Football Playoff National Championship press conference at The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Savannah Ballroom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 53.3%

Comment: It's tight, but the ESPN computers give Texas the nod on the road.

Projected Record: 1-0

Sept. 6: San Jose State Spartans at Texas Longhorns

Sep 1, 2022; San Jose, California, USA; General view of the San Jose State Spartans helmet before the start of the game against the Portland State Vikings at CEFCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 98.7%

Comment: Texas gets a big win at home.

Projected Record: 2-0

Sept. 13: UTEP Miners at Texas Longhorns

Sep 22, 2012; Madison, WI, USA; A UTEP Miners helmet during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin defeated UTEP 37-26. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 99.0%

Comment: ESPN's computers will never say 100%, but this is close.

Projected Record: 3-0

Sept. 20: Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Longhorns

Sep 3, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; A general view of a Sam Houston State Bearkats helmet on the sideline during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 99.0%

Comment: Another "almost" 100% lock for the Longhorns

Projected Record: 4-0

Oct. 4: Texas Longhorns at Florida Gators

Florida Gators helmet.

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 70.3%

Comment: This could be a dangerous road game at the Swamp, but ESPN's computers don't seem to worried.

Projected Record: 5-0

Oct. 11: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (in Dallas)

Oklahoma Sooners helmet.

Location: Cotton Bowl Stadium (Dallas, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 84.5%

Comment: The ESPN computers don't seem to concerned about new OU QB John Mateer.

Projected Record: 6-0

Oct. 18: Texas Longhorns at Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats helmet.

Location: Kroger Field (Lexington, KY)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 86.2%

Comment: Texas' win probability over the Wildcats is just a tad higher than it was for the Sooners.

Projected Record: 7-0

Oct. 25: Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Nov 23, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; A Mississippi State Bulldogs helmet sits on the sidelines during the first half against the Mississippi Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Location: Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville, MS)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 91.3%

Comment: ESPN's computers can't believe this is actually a conference game.

Projected Record: 8-0

Nov. 1: Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns

Vanderbilt Commodores helmet.

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 94.4%

Comment: Vandy is shown no respect by the ESPN computers.

Projected Record: 9-0

Nov. 15: Texas Longhorns at Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Location: Sanford Stadium (Athens, GA)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 54.3%

Comment: ESPN computers give the Horns a very slight edge Between the Hedges.

Projected Record: 10-0

Nov. 22: Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Longhorns

Arkansas Razorbacks helmet.

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 89.6%

Comment: ESPN's computers think Texas has an almost 90% chance to beat their "rivals" from Fayetteville.

Projected Record: 11-0

Nov. 28: Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns

Texas A&M Aggies helmet.

Location: Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, TX)

Predicted winner: Texas

Longhorns win probability: 79.3%

Comment: The ESPN computers love the Longhorns and give UT almost an 80% chance to beat A&M again.

Projected Final Record: 12-0

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This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: ESPN game-by-game predictions for 2025 Texas football schedule

Category: General Sports