San Diego's World Series odds have a significant hurdle.
Padres need to overcome concerning historical trend to win World Series originally appeared on The Sporting News
The San Diego Padres are a game up on the Los Angeles Dodgers heading into their series finale. With a chance to sweep their division rivals and top competition for the NL West, the Padres could bolster their postseason chances with a win.
But, across MLB history, there is one area that is holding the Padres back from being a top World Series contender. It won't completely shut the door for the Padres, but it is a concerning statistic.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today revealed that the team's lack of power, specifically their struggles to hit home runs this season, could have a large impact on their World Series odds this season.
Padres Struggle to Hit Home Runs
San Diego is one of the worst home run-hitting teams in baseball this season. Even though after the trade deadline, they've been a bit better, overall on the year, the home run numbers are severely lacking.
"The Padres are trying to buck history." Nightengale writes, "They have hit only 110 home runs this year, the second-fewest in baseball. No team has won a World Series after ranking in the bottom five in home runs since the 2012 Giants, who finished last."
The San Francisco Giants are the last team to win the World Series that was ranked in the bottom five in home runs on the year. The Padres won't be able to climb out of their hole and will likely finish within that range this season.
Not only are the Giants in 2012, but 13 were also the last team to win the World Series that hit as few home runs in a season as the Padres have so far, but the last five World Series winners ranked outside of the top four in baseball.
Hitting home runs is a huge part of the offense come October. Pitching is likely to be better at that point, and stringing together long rallies becomes a lot more challenging.
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Being able to notch a run or two thanks to one swing is a huge deal come the postseason. And for the Padres, their struggles to do so this season make for a concerning statistic.
While this won't keep the Padres from winning the World Series, it at least will make their path a lot more challenging. San Diego needs their sluggers to turn the corner and hit more home runs if it wants better odds come October.
If Jackson Merrill can get healthy and out of his struggles, and Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. can hit more home runs, the lack of power from Freddy Fermin, Luis Arraez, and Jake Cronenworth can be more easily overcome.
But, regardless of whether the Padres can hit the long ball more often down the stretch, their season's struggles could negatively impact their chances of winning the World Series.
It's a strong team that can win the World Series, but to do so, they will need to overcome years of MLB history to secure their first championship in franchise history.
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Category: Baseball
