August is the month of predictions. At the bar, on social media, during the Fanta auction. But there's someone who doesn't talk: they calculate.Watch the entire Serie A on DAZN: click here, choose the...
August is the month of predictions. At the bar, on social media, during the Fanta auction. But there's someone who doesn't talk: they calculate.
The Opta Predictor is a supercomputer that puts data and numbers in line. It doesn't give space to "gut" impressions: the merit and perhaps also the defect of one of the most advanced mathematical models in the world of football.
What is the Opta Predictor
Based on strengths and weaknesses, historical results and performance indices, the Opta Predictor simulates the championship 10,000 times. From there, it pulls out the probabilities of the Scudetto, Champions, Europa League and even the final standings. A cold, but precise photograph to which we try to give motivations.
Why Inter is the big favorite
Inter leads the projections with a 36.09% chance of Scudetto: almost triple that of Napoli. 76 estimated points at the end of the championship, enough to stay ahead of everyone. Champions? Almost a given: 78.25%.
The algorithm sees a solid team, which has kept its most important players and not only: it has taken others. Objectively, today's Inter has more options than the one that reached the Champions League final, and Opta knows this.
However, the subtleties are difficult to quantify: does the change from Inzaghi to Chivu have an exact percentage of success? Nobody can know, also because Chivu's numbers among professionals, perhaps, are not enough to make a case.
Napoli is not the favorite
Current champion, reinforced team, Antonio Conte on the bench. The business card is that of the team to beat. And yet, for Opta, it's not like that. Napoli starts behind. Very behind. Will it be because of the double European commitment, will it be because of the trust given to the Nerazzurri: the supercomputer thinks so.
13.25% chance of winning the Scudetto, almost a third compared to Inter. Conte said it: "We have to bother Inter, Juve and Milan". But for the supercomputer, it might not be enough.
Atalanta almost like Napoli
New coach, sale of top scorer Retegui and a "Lookman case" that shakes the environment. And yet, for the supercomputer, Juric's Atalanta remains up there, almost arm in arm with Napoli.
The simulations give it a 13.18% chance of Scudetto and over 51% chance of seeing the Champions again. A clear signal: for Opta, Bergamo does not give up on the change. The Goddess changes face, but not ambition.
Roma better than Milan and Juventus
Behind the top two, the surprise is Roma. A year ago, the Scudetto was possible at 0.8%, today it's the final victory at 10.29%. Gasperini effect, which enhances the players and brings the Giallorossi close to Champions (45.92%).
For Milan, Massimiliano Allegri's history speaks for itself. The algorithm overlooks the offensive imperfections of Max's last seasons, and perhaps the coach himself would agree: "When you don't attack, you shouldn't be ashamed to defend well, because the final goal is the result you have to achieve in any way". But what is this result? Not the 1st place for Opta: 7.46% chance of Scudetto and 37.70% for Champions.
Juventus Tudor collects similar numbers to those of Milan, through different methods: no shocks, great continuity and a more serene environment without re-foundations to be designed. For the Bianconeri, there is a 7.33% chance of Scudetto and 38.29% of arriving in Champions.
- Milan: 7.46% Scudetto – 37.70% Champions
- Juventus: 7.33% Scudetto – 38.29% Champions
- Roma: 10.29% Scudetto - 45.92% Champions
Champions League battle
The others look at the fourth place as a possible goal. Lazio (4.70% Scudetto – 29.68% Champions), Bologna (3.29% – 24.45%) and Fiorentina (2.95% – 21.50%) play the role of outsiders.
- Lazio: Scudetto 4.70% | CL 29.68% | EL 9.59%
- Bologna: Scudetto 3.29% | CL 24.45% | EL 9.01%
- Fiorentina: Scudetto 2.95% | CL 21.50% | EL 8.78%
And then there are Como and Torino, small surprises in potential ascent. Low percentages, but Opta puts them on the list as hypothetical exploits.
- Como: CL 4.60% | EL 2.86%
- Torino: CL 4.66% | EL 2.95%
Full standings forecast
Ten thousand simulations produced this ranking:
- Inter
- Napoli
- Atalanta
- Roma
- Milan
- Juventus
- Lazio
- Bologna
- Fiorentina
- Como
- Torino
- Genoa
- Udinese
- Cagliari
- Sassuolo
- Cremonese
- Verona
- Pisa
- Parma
- Lecce
How many positions will the Supercomputer have taken? The answer is postponed to the end of May 2026.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.
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Category: General Sports
