Let’s chart every SEC team’s path to win the conference. How they would do it, what would have to go right and what would have to go wrong for their opponents. We’ll do this in two parts and in order of odds to win the conference from longest to shortest. [Sign up for Inside Texas […]
Let’s chart every SEC team’s path to win the conference.
How they would do it, what would have to go right and what would have to go wrong for their opponents. We’ll do this in two parts and in order of odds to win the conference from longest to shortest.
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Imagining a road for some of these teams to win the conference is going to look a lot more like fan fiction and fantasy than analysis. But we’ll go for it anyway.
The bottom four teams are the longest of long shots.
They’re also the four SEC programs who rank outside of Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric and all have greater than 10,000 to 1 odds to hoist the conference championship trophy in Atlanta.
Luckily for Texas, the Longhorns play all of them. You’ll notice a trend in these first four, the only way they can win the conference is a combination of divine intervention and quarterback superpowers.
Mississippi State
Odds to win the SEC: +50,000
Feel like throwing down? YOLO. (Bet $100 to win $50,000)
The Bulldogs path? Jeff Lebby had a rough first season in Starkville and lost a lot in the portal, namely quarterback Michael Van Buren. The Bulldogs didn’t land Jackson Arnold and now they’ll be rolling back ex-Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen and his lounge singer haircut for a fifth season.
Mississippi State added two Texas departures, Derrion Gullete and Jaray Bledsoe, plus a former Longhorn who made the odd pit stop in Norman in Brenen Thompson. That’s probably the biggest strength of Lebby’s team. It’s a who’s who of familiar names. They also have Alabama transfer Tony Mitchell and A&M departee Malick Sylla.
Their running back room is the main strength, with Davon Booth and South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell. With an SEC schedule that includes Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida, Bothwell is the Bulldogs’ only path to the title under the premise the competition is reduced to a name contest. Fluff would bring home the crown.
Kentucky
Odds to win the SEC: +25,000
Feel like throwing down? (Bet $100 to win $25,000)
The Wildcats path? For one night, Zach Calzada was once touched by God. Can it happen again?
I called that day Black Saturday for Longhorn fans. Texas blew a 28-7 lead to Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma, only to see Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M upset Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide after they’d lost two straight games. And I kid you not, in the previous two losses against Arkansas and Mississippi State, Calzada had legitimately looked like one of the worst quarterbacks I’d ever seen. Screamers were hurled into his own receivers’ helmets as the young quarterback looked lost.
Then Alabama came to Kyle Field. It felt like Longhorn fans were being tortured as we watched Calzada have an out-of-body experience. It reminded me of when Frank in Old School blacks out and gives a perfect debate answer against James Carville.
Calzada dropped dime after dime, came back from a horrific looking injury, and seemed to be starring in his own Disney sports movie from the 1990s. After the win, Calzada went back to being a below-average starter and transferred to Auburn (where he didn’t play) before having a nice run at Incarnate Word. Mike Stoops still hasn’t named a starting quarterback, he lost a ton to the NFL Draft and the portal, plus his fanbase has soured on him after his dalliance with College Station. Still, Calzada rode on Angel’s Wings once before.
Vanderbilt
Odds to win the SEC: +20,000
Feel like throwing down? Bet $100 to win $20,000
The Commodores’ path? How much magic does the magician of New Mexico, Diego Pavia, have left?
Pavia is a college football folk hero and is now in his 19th year. He has the best returning tight end in the conference in Eli Stowers, but not much else. Can Clark Lea’s offensive coordinator Tim Beck (no, the other one) add new wrinkles into the spread option offense that it takes the rest of the SEC an incredibly long time to catch up to?
That kind of sorcery plus some schedule luck is what it would take. Maybe Vanderbilt’s inept defense is buoyed by never having to play an opponent’s actual starting quarterback or something? I’m workshopping here. With another year of an eight-game conference schedule, all it would take is some tie breaker flukery to get a weird team to Atlanta. Then it would just be up to Pavia to go GOAT mode for one game.
Arkansas
Odds to win the SEC: +15,000
Feel like throwing down? (Bet $100 to win $15,000)
The path? Quarterback Taylen Green gets compared to Vince Young sometimes, but that’s like comparing a kitschy cover band to The Beatles.
Still, every once in a while those cover bands can belt out a rendition of Hey Jude so powerful you might think it floated straight from the River Mersey and into your soul.
Missouri
Odds to win the SEC: +6,000
Feel like throwing down? Bet $100 to win $6,000
The path? Now we finally get into the territory where our imaginations don’t have to be so stretched.
The Tigers got a stud transfer running back in Ahmad Hardy from ULM and Penn State transfer quarterback Beau Pribula has the athleticism and jawline you’d want from a college quarterback. Eli Drinkwitz has had a solid last two years in Columbia and brought respectability back to a program that was nearly forgotten about in the SEC.
How could they win their first SEC title? They can basically sleepwalk through their non-conference schedule and won’t have to expend much energy or brain power. Then they get an SEC slate that doesn’t include Georgia or Texas. The Tigers’ big tests will be South Carolina and Alabama at home before mid October. Split those games on the back of Hardy and then just hope that by the time they get Texas A&M and Oklahoma in November those opponents are worn down and in flames.
With this schedule, Missouri’s recent luck in one-score games and a Hardy Heisman campaign, you could see the Tigers in Atlanta and it wouldn’t defy wisdom. Could they win it? That’s harder to imagine, but their talent is at least serviceable when compared to the top echelon of SEC teams.
Auburn
Odds to win the SEC: +2,800
Feel like throwing down? Bet $100 to win $2,800
The path? Auburn made social media waves when Hugh Freeze revealed their new play calling method for 2025. Essentially, three coaches will call plays, one responsible for first down, one for third down, and Freeze has the authority to reject or audible. It’s a collaborative approach that would make Lenin think humanity is evolving as a species, but it’s a laughable approach to offense.
But what if we’re the ones who should be getting laughed at? What if this collective mind meld is the key to achieving some higher plane of existence when it comes to football. Did the Tigers coaching staff just become a super computer brain with AI-like access to droves of information?
Nope.
Their path to the SEC title is through anchored by their defensive line, now matured under Freeze. But mostly, ex Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold limiting his propensity for giveaways and the hopes that when he chunks the ball up it falls into the hands of his elite and giant wide receivers, Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton and Perry Thompson. It’s a wide receiving core of game breakers and though it’s unlikely, what if the trio of play callers just say “F-it, throw it deep” all year. Auburn has had magical runs before.
Oklahoma
Odds to win the SEC: +2,800
Feel like throwing down? Bet $100 to win $2,800
The path? Sooners coach Brent Venables hitched his tiny chuckwagon to Wazzu transfer John Mateer like he was a prophet leading the blind away from oppression. I’ve been selling Oklahoma all offseason, I even recently predicted Venables would be gone by Halloween.
First, here’s why I don’t like Oklahoma as a contender or anything more than an upstart in the SEC. Their schedule is brutal, making their prospects of getting to Atlanta tough. They have every team in the top eight odds to win the conference minus Florida and Georgia. They’ve done little to retool an offensive line that was rough in 2024, only bringing in three transfers. Let’s say Michael Fasusi IS the next Kelvin Banks, that’s still just one piece. I also don’t like the wide receivers they’ve paired with Mateer. They’re relying on big FCS transfers to make a giant leap in production and Deion Burks, who is a small possession wide receiver. And I think the combination of Mateer, prone to hero ball and a Venables defense is a weird one. Almost reminiscent of the Wisconsin Air Raid experience.
But I’ve listened to multiple things in the past few weeks that have made me doubt my prediction some. Am I just too filled with hate to see Boomer Sooner rationally?
It’s possible.
Mateer is a gamer, someone I’d undoubtedly love if he wasn’t on a Texas rival. He has elements of Ehlinger, but can also make some Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray-esque plays that make your jaw drop. Maybe he just needs the wide receiving core to get open and Jadyn Ott to stay healthy and he’ll do the rest, offensive line struggles and all.
On defense, the unit will be really good. They have a dangerous front seven and a back half with potential if Peyton Bowen can go up a level. Plus, Venables has been relegated by the Oklahoma brass back to his natural habitat: calling plays on defense. With a revamped special teams, Oklahoma’s blueprint is to let the defense do its thing and allow Mateer to put on the superhero cape just enough.
Lastly, even when the odds were against the Sooners in the Big 12, they’d inexplicably find themselves winning the conference. They’ve shown none of that “DNA” so far in the SEC, but maybe I’ve just been too blind to see it?
South Carolina
Odds: +2,500
Feel like throwing down? Bet $100 to win $2,500
The path? South Carolina was my hipster pick in the Spring to win the conference.
But then I realized when you lift up the star-shaped rocks that are quarterback LaNorris Sellers and EDGE Dylan Stewart, you won’t like what’s underneath. The Gamecocks were a fun team last year who should have made the CFP, but were pillaged by the draft.
So, if this were basketball, I’d like the chances of Shane Beamer’s squad a lot more than I do. But, let’s imagine a world where a two or three headed monster could translate to the SEC.
They could very well finish the season with the two best players in the league. Plus, if WR Nyck Harbor’s on-field performance ever matched his abilities in the underwear olympics, they’d be a three-headed monster with game wrecking abilities every week. It would be a James, Wade and Bosh on South Beach approach to gaming the SEC.
If it worked, it would be aided by the fact South Carolina avoids Texas and Georgia and could afford to split games against LSU and Alabama. Plus, non-conference matchups against Virginia Tech and Clemson will only affect their playoff resume, not their standing in the SEC.
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South Carolina’s motto for the season should be “All aboard.” It’s about getting on Sellers and Stewart’s backs and letting them carry them to glory. In The Last Dance, when Scottie Pippen was asked what he was thinking during Michael Jordan’s last shot against Utah in 1998, he responded “get the hell out the way.” Gamecocks supporting cast, take notes.
Category: General Sports
